AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Abstract

Objective- The household saving tendency has been accepted as one of the most important financial instruments in the development of the countries for hundred years. The impact of economic crisis have become much more intense, recently due to the disappearance of borders between the countiries. This situation, while increasing households' anxiety about the future, has also strengthened their saving tendencies. In Turkey, the decline in household savings, the negative effects on macroeconomic data, and the positive effects of savings on development have all come in to prominence lately. The purpose of study in this context is to investigate the effects causing increase and decrease in household savings of Turkey and to reveal their impact to economic growth.   

Methodology-  In this study, the relationship between household savings and economic growth have been analyzed with the VAR model given in the quarterly frequency in 2002 / 1-2017 / 1 period data for the Turkish economy. The indicator of the inflation rate is selected as the TUFE price index which is accepted as the best reflector of the price movements. Concerning the interest rate, the weighted average interest rates applied to the deposit accounts of the banks are used. Financial deepening is included in the model by proportioning to M2 / GDP. The high level of this ratio indicates that the funds in the financial sector are able to meet the funding demands of the real sector. The credit volume, unemployment rate, real exchange rate, industrial production index and manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate data have been included in the study in order to make the model more sophisticated as they have considerable impact on savings. Finally, Eviews-9 program is used for econometric applications.

Findings- According to the findings, there is a positive relationship between economic growth and savings in the relevant period for the Turkish economy, consistent with theoretical explanations and earlier empirical studies. However, according to the findings of the study, the most important factor determining household savings is real exchange rate. In this context, it seems difficult to increase the household savings in Turkey without stabilizing the exchange rates. The implementation of macroeconomic policies that will increase income and reduce structural vulnerabilities will raise the value of the Turkish lira in the medium to long term and will sustain the value of the Turkish lira in the short term thus will encourage savings.   The impact of economic growth on savings comes after the unemployment rate, the inflation indicator, the TUFE price index and the industrial production index, representing the real sector. As a result, the sociological effects of changing consumption trends are observed.

Conclusion- According to the results and inferences of the study; it might be advisable to implement policies that will mobilize market dynamics to improve savings at micro-scale in policy preferences for increased savings. In general, it might be worthy of recommendation to prioritize structural policies that might influence household investment habits. For example, awareness-raising projects regarding the benefits of saving can be developed in order to increase household savings. The saving culture could be explained via cooperation in technology and social media in order to disseminate the implementation of the project to the public. Trainings can be provided to enhance the financial literacy level of the households and increasing their cognizance with regard to the subject. It can be argued that dividing the increases in household incomes into conscious spending and individual pension systems on credit cards will play an important role in expanding the savings base and rendering the savings sustainable. 

Keywords

• Economic growth,Granger Causality Test,Households Savings,Johansen Cointegraiton Test,Var Analysis

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