THE COVID 19 EFFECT ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Abstract

Purpose- From the moment covid 19 started to spread in the world, its effects began to be seen simultaneously in financial markets and economy.The purpose of this study is to observe Covid 19 effect on EURO/USD,gold ,oil and wheat prices. Methodology- The database includes the Daily prices of EUR/USD, wheat ,gold , brent oil prices and COVİD 19 numbers between the period of 31.12.2019-04.09.2020 which consist of 180 daily data. Natural logaritm for each indicator is used. First, the stationarity of the series were analyzed with ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) unit root test. Lag lengths are determined. Interactions between the series were analyzed by theARDL, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition method. Findings- The series are found out to not to be stationary as a result of Unit root test.After, the lag length criteria using VAR models were checked and this lag length criteria for them were determined as one . According to the ARDL test result, cointegration could not be found between our data. Impulse response graphs indicate that all variables respond in a reducing way to reducing shocks occurred in each indicator. Shocks have lost their effect on average in 2 days. Conclusion- The results indicate that the effect of COVID 19 on EUR/USD , gold , brent oil and wheat prices do not have a strong effect. The results may be beneficial for only literatüre.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• pandemic
• ARDL test
• stationary test
• impulse-response function
• variance decomposition

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