TÜRKİYE’DE ÇEVRESEL VERGİLER-İSTİHDAM İLİŞKİSİNİN FOURIER TEMELLİ ZAMAN SERİSİ TEKNİKLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, çevresel mali reformlar ve sürdürülebilir vergilendirme çerçevesinde Türkiye’de çevresel vergiler ile istihdam arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkileri incelemektedir. 2005-2023 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak esnek Fourier birim kök testi ve Fourier-ADL eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı uygulanmış; böylece makroekonomik zaman serilerinde sıkça gözlenen kademeli ve yumuşak yapısal değişimlerin analize dâhil edilmesi sağlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarına göre çevresel vergilerdeki artışlar istihdamı olumsuz etkilemekte; istihdamın çevresel vergilere göre esnekliği -0,03 olarak hesaplanmaktadır. Bu sonuç, çevresel vergilerdeki %1’lik bir artışın istihdamı yaklaşık %0,03 azalttığını ortaya koymaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise çevresel vergilerden istihdama doğru anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmemiştir. Dolayısıyla, Türkiye açısından istihdam çifte yarar hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye’nin işgücü piyasası yapısı ve vergi sisteminin özellikleriyle birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, çevresel vergilerin istihdam üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinin azaltılabilmesi için gelir geri dönüşüm mekanizmalarının ve sektörel geçiş politikalarının dikkatle tasarlanması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Çevresel Vergiler
• İstihdam
• Esnek Fourier Birim Kök
• Fourier-ADL Eşbütünleşme

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL TAXES AND EMPLOYMENT IN TURKIYE USING FOURIER-BASED TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and short-run dynamics between environmental taxes and employment in Turkiye within the framework of Environmental Fiscal Reforms and sustainable taxation. Using monthly data for the period 2005-2023, the analysis employs the Flexible Fourier unit root test and the Fourier-ADL cointegration approach, which allow for smooth and gradual structural changes commonly observed in macroeconomic time series. The empirical findings reveal a significant long-run relationship between the variables, indicating that increases in environmental taxes reduce employment over time. The long-run elasticity of environmental taxes with respect to employment is estimated at -0.03, suggesting that a 1% rise in environmental taxes leads to a 0.03% decline in employment. Short-run causality tests, however, show no evidence of a causal effect from environmental taxes to employment, confirming the absence of short-term adjustments. These results demonstrate that the employment double dividend hypothesis does not hold for Turkiye, as environmental taxes exert a mild but persistent downward pressure on employment. The findings are evaluated within the context of Turkiye’s labor market structure and tax system, highlighting the importance of revenue-recycling mechanisms and well-designed sectoral transition policies for minimizing potential negative labor-market impacts while pursuing environmental objectives.

Keywords

• Environmental Taxes
• Employment
• Flexible Fourier Unit Root
• Fourier-ADL Cointegration

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