CLIMATE CRISIS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

This study analyzes the multidimensional impacts of climate change on political instability in the Middle East through the lens of environmental security. It demonstrates how environmental stressors—such as water scarcity, desertification, food insecurity, and ecological degradation—function as “threat multipliers” when interacting with weak governance structures, ethno-sectarian tensions, and fragile state institutions. Drawing on case studies from Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Egypt and Yemen, the research shows that these environmental factors do not directly cause conflict but exacerbate existing structural vulnerabilities, thereby reinforcing political instability. The study underscores that climate change is not merely an ecological issue but also a significant driver of societal and administrative insecurity. It argues that narrowly defined security-centered approaches fall short in addressing these complex dynamics. Accordingly, the study concludes that comprehensive strategies prioritizing regional cooperation, justice-based climate policies, and interdisciplinary analysis are essential for addressing the intertwined environmental and political crises in the region.

Keywords

• Climate crisis
• Environmental stress
• Middle East
• Threat multiplier
• Environmental security

ORTADOĞU’DA İKLİM KRİZİ VE SİYASAL İSTİKRARSIZLIK: ÇEVRESEL GÜVENLİK PERSPEKTİFİNDEN ÇOK BOYUTLU BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin Ortadoğu’daki siyasal istikrarsızlık üzerindeki çok boyutlu etkilerini çevresel güvenlik perspektifinden analiz etmektedir. Su kıtlığı, çölleşme, gıda güvencesizliği ve çevresel bozulma gibi stres faktörlerinin; zayıf yönetişim, etnik-mezhebi gerilimler ve kırılgan devlet yapılarıyla etkileşerek nasıl bir “tehdit çarpanı” işlevi gördüğü ortaya konmuştur. Suriye, Irak, Filistin, Mısır ve Yemen gibi örnek vakalar üzerinden, çevresel faktörlerin doğrudan değil fakat yapısal kırılganlıkları derinleştirici etkilerle siyasal istikrarsızlıkları pekiştirdiği tartışılmıştır. Çalışma, iklim krizinin yalnızca ekolojik değil; aynı zamanda toplumsal ve yönetsel düzlemlerde güvenlik tehditlerini artıran bir unsur haline geldiğini vurgulamakta ve salt güvenlikçi yaklaşımların yetersizliğine dikkat çekmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, bölgesel iş birliğini, adalet temelli iklim politikalarını ve disiplinlerarası analizleri önceleyen bütüncül yaklaşımların geliştirilmesi gerektiği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

• İklim krizi
• Çevresel stres
• Ortadoğu
• Tehdit çarpanı
• Çevresel güvenlik

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