TARIM VE SANAYİ SEKTÖRLERİ KAYNAKLI ÇEVRESEL KUZNETS EĞRİSİNİN İNCELENMESİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN RALS EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİ

Abstract

Ekolojik ayak izi, insan faaliyetlerinin doğal ekosistemler üzerindeki kaynak tüketimi ve atık üretimi bağlamında yarattığı toplam talebin nicel olarak ifade edilmesidir. Kentleşme süreçleri ve değişen tüketim alışkanlıkları, üretim ve sanayi faaliyetleriyle ilişkili ekolojik ayak izinde önemli bir artışa yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada ekolojik ayak izi, ekonomik büyüme, birincil enerji, tüketimi tarımsal katma değer ve sanayi katma değer arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisi için 1980-2023 dönemi veri seti kapsamında tarım ve sanayi kaynaklı Çevresel Kuznets Eğirisi hipotezinin varlığı test edilmiştir. Çalışmada değişkenlere ADF ve RALS ADF birim kök test uygulanmış ve durağanlık düzeyleri belirlenmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi, uzun vadeli bir ilişki ortaya koyan RALS ADL ve RALS EG2 eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişki kurulduktan sonra, uzun dönem katsayı tahmin edicileri kullanılmıştır. FMOLS ve DOLS sonuçları benzer sonuçlar vermektedir. Bu testler, tarımsal katma değerin ve sanayi katma değerin, birincil enerji tüketiminin, GSYİH ve GSYİH2 karesinin ekolojik ayak izini artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu bulgular doğrultusunda, Türkiye ekonomisinde tarım ve sanayi faaliyetleri ile enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyümenin ilk aşamalarında ekolojik ayak izini artırdığı, ancak GSYİH’nın karesinin negatif etkisi dikkate alındığında belirli bir gelir düzeyinden sonra çevresel baskıların azalmaya başladığı ve dolayısıyla incelenen dönem itibarıyla Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin tarım ve sanayi temelli olarak geçerli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Tarım ve Sanayi Sektörleri
• Ekolojik Ayak İzi
• Eşbütünleşme Testi

ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE ORIGINATING FROM AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY SECTORS: RALS COINTEGRATION TEST FOR TURKIYE

Abstract

Ecological footprint is a quantitative expression of the total demand created by human activities on natural ecosystems in terms of resource consumption and waste production. Urbanization processes and changing consumption habits have led to a significant increase in the ecological footprint associated with production and industrial activities. This study examines the long-term relationship between ecological footprint, economic growth, primary energy consumption, agricultural value added, and industrial value added. The existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, originating from agriculture and industry, was tested within the scope of a dataset for the Turkish economy covering the period 1980-2023. Unit root tests (ADF) and RALS ADF were applied to the variables, and their stationarity levels were determined. Cointegration relationships between the series were determined using RALS ADL and RALS EG2 cointegration tests, which reveal a long-term relationship. After establishing a long-term relationship between the variables, long-term coefficient estimators were used. FMOLS and DOLS results yielded similar findings. These tests show that agricultural and industrial value added, primary energy consumption, GDP, and the square of GDP² increase the ecological footprint. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that in the Turkish economy, agricultural and industrial activities and energy consumption increase the ecological footprint in the initial stages of economic growth, but considering the negative effect of the square of GDP, environmental pressures begin to decrease after a certain income level. Therefore, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for agriculture and industry-based activities during the period examined.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Agriculture and Industry Sectors
• Ecological Footprint
• Cointegration Test

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