IS THE CROWD-OUT EFFECT APPLICABLE BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN THE EUROZONE? EVIDENCE FROM A CS-ARDL ANALYSIS

Year 2025, Issue: Sayı:71 (EYS'25 Özel Sayısı), 1 - 12, 29.12.2025

Ayşe Aydın

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1795137

Abstract

The primary purpose of this study is to explore the effects of public debt on public investment within the Eurozone, focusing on 20 member countries over the period 2000–2023. While the relationship between government borrowing and investment activity has been widely debated, empirical evidence specific to the Euro Area remains relatively limited. To address this gap, the study employs the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach, which offers the advantage of accounting for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity across countries. This methodology enables the derivation of both short-run and long-run dynamics of the debt–investment nexus. The empirical results consistently demonstrate a negative and statistically significant association between public debt levels and public investment, indicating that rising debt burdens exert a crowding-out effect on public sector capital formation.

Keywords

Public Debt , Public Investment , CS-ARDL.

AVRO BÖLGESİ’NDE KAMU BORCU İLE KAMU YATIRIMI ARASINDA DIŞLAMA ETKİSİ GEÇERLİ MİDİR? CS-ARDL ANALİZİNDEN ELDE EDİLEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, 20 üye ülkeye odaklanarak 2000-2023 döneminde Avro Bölgesi'nde kamu borcunun kamu yatırımları üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktır. Hükümet borçlanması ile yatırım faaliyeti arasındaki ilişki yaygın olarak tartışılmış olsada, Avro Bölgesi'ne özgü ampirik kanıtlar nispeten sınırlıdır. Bu boşluğu gidermek için çalışma, ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve eğim heterojenliğini hesaba katma avantajı sunan Kesitsel Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (CS-ARDL) yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Bu metodoloji, borç-yatırım ilişkisinin hem kısa hem de uzun vadeli dinamiklerinin türetilmesini sağlar. Ampirik sonuçlar, kamu borç seviyeleri ile kamu yatırımı arasında sürekli olarak negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermekte ve artan borç yüklerinin kamu sektörü sermaye oluşumu üzerinde dışlama etkisi yarattığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kamu Borcu , Kamu Yatırımı , CS-ARDL.

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