DOLARİZASYON HİSTERİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde dolarizasyon histerisinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmaya göre, 2011:12 ile 2021:01 örneklem döneminde dolarizasyon oranı ile enflasyon oranı, döviz kuru ve CDS risk primi arasında simetrik bir nedensellik söz konusudur. Diğer taraftan, faiz oranındaki artma dolarizasyon oranındaki azalmanın nedeni iken, tersi ise geçerli değildir. Dolayısıyla, faiz oranından dolarizasyon oranına doğru olmak üzere tek yönlü bir nedensellik vardır. Sonuç olarak, ilgili dönemde enflasyon oranı, döviz kuru, faiz oranı ve CDS risk primi değişkenlerinde histeri etkisine ulaşılamamıştır.

Keywords

• dolarizasyon histerisi
• enflasyon oranı
• döviz kuru
• faiz oranı
• CDS

DOLARIZATION HYSTERY: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

According to this study, which investigated dollarization hysteria in the Turkish economy, there is a symmetrical causality between the dollarization rate and the inflation rate, the exchange rate and the CDS risk premium during the 2011: 12 and 2021: 01 sample period. On the other hand, while the increase in the interest rate is the cause of the decrease in the dollarization rate, the opposite is not valid. Hence, there is a one-way causality from the interest rate to the dollarization rate. As a result, hysteria has not been achieved in the inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate and CDS risk premium variables in the Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Dollarization hysteria
• inflation rate
• exchange rate
• interest rate
• CDS

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