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EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ

Year 2024, Issue: 60, 229 - 241, 17.01.2024

Mustafa Kurt

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1369491
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme-bütçe dengesi ilişkisinde siyasi istikrarın rolü panel eşik regresyon analizi kullanılarak
incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin 2002-2020 dönemine ait yıllık verileri analiz için
kullanılmaktadır. Sabit etkiler modelinin sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme ile bütçe dengesi arasındaki ilişkinin pozitif ve doğrusal
olmadığını göstermektedir. Panel eşik regresyon analizi sonuçları ise, bütçe dengesi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde siyasi
istikrarın önemli olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Eşik değerinin altında ve üzerinde gerçekleşen bütçe dengesindeki iyileşmeler,
iktisadi büyümeyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülkelerdeki siyasi istikrarın eşik değerin altında olduğu durumda
gerçekleşen bütçe dengesindeki iyileşmelerin iktisadi büyümedeki olumlu etkisinin daha güçlü olduğu gözlemlenmektedir.

Keywords

Bütçe dengesi Ekonomik büyüme Siyasi istikrar

References

  • Abdella A. B., Naghavi, N. & Fah. B.C. (2018). The effects of corruption, trade openness and political stability on foreign direct investment: empirical evidence from BRIC countries. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 5 (3), 32-38.
  • Abrams, B. A., Lewis, K. A. (1995). Culturel And Institutional Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Cross-Section Analysis. Public Choice, 83 (3-4), 273-289.
  • Acemoğlu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. (2001). The Colonial Origins Of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review, 91 (5), 1369-1401.
  • Acemoğlu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Cries And Growth. Journal Of Monetary Economics, 50 (1), 49-123.
  • Asteriou, D., Price, S. (2000). Political Uncertainty And Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence. Scottish Journal Of Political Economy, 48 (4), 383-399.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, Ş., Roubini, N., Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability And Economic Growth. Journal Of Economic Growth, 1 (2), 189-211.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries. Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 106 (2), 407-444.
  • Benos, N. (2005). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From OECD Countries. Discuusion Paper.
  • Caporale, G. M. & Skare, M. (2011). Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Was Phillips Right? Evidince from a Dynamic Panel. Economics and Finance Working Paper Series.no:11-09, London: Brunel University.
  • Dias, J., Tebaldi, E. (2012). Institutions, Human Capital And Economic Growth: The Institutional Mechanism. Structural Change And Economic Mechanism, 23 (3), 300-312.
  • Devereux, M. B., Wen, J. F. (1998). Political Instability, Capital Taxation And Growth. European. Economic Review, 42 (9), 1635-1651.
  • Easterly, W., Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. NBER Working Paper, No. 4499.
  • Easterly, W. R., Wetzel, D. L. (1989). Policy Determinants of Growth. WB Working Papers.
  • Edwards, S., Tabellini, G. (1991). Political Instability, Political Weakness And Inflation: An Empirical Analysis.
  • Engen, E.M., Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper, No. 4223.
  • Feng, Y. (1997). Democracy, Political Stability And Economic Growth. British Journal Of Political Science, 27 (3), 391-418.
  • Fine, B. (2004). Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assesment. Cambridge Journal Of Economics, 24 (2), 245-265.
  • Fisher, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomıc Factors In Growth. NBER Working Paper, No 4565.
  • Freitag, M., Sciarini, P. (2001). The Political Economy Of Budget Deficits In The European Union. European Union Politics, 2 (2), 163-189.
  • Gazdar, K., Cherif, M. (2015). Institutions And The Finance-Growth Neux: Empiricial Evidence From MENA Countries. Borsa İstanbul Review, 15 (3), 137-160.
  • Ghali, K. H. (1997). Government Spending and Economic Growth In Saudi Arabia. Journal of Economic Development, 22 (2), 165-172.
  • Gwartney, J., Holcombe, R., Lawson, R. (1998). The Scope of Government and The Wealth of Nations. The Cato of Nations, 18 (2), 163-190.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects In Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimating, Testing and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368.
  • Helms, J. L. (1985). The Effect of State and Local Taxes On Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2022a). Tax Revenue, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • -------(2022b), Budget Balance Data, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • -------(2022c), Public Expenditure, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • Knack, S., Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures. Economics And Politics, 7 (3), 207-227.
  • Kneller, R., Michael, B., Norman, G. (1999). Growth, Public Policy and The Government Budget Constraint: Evidence From OECD Countries. Discussion Paper, No 98 (14).
  • Landau, D.L. (1983). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study. Southern Economic Journal, No 49, 783-792.
  • Lavigne, R. (2011). The Political And İnstitutional Determinants Of Fiscal Adjustment: Entering And Exiting Fiscal Distress. European Journal Of Political Economy, 27 (1), 17-35.
  • Maher, M., & Zhao, Y. (2022). Do political instability and military expenditure undermine economic growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(8), 956-979.
  • Mara, E. R. (2012). Determinants Of Fiscal Budget Volatility In Old Versus New EU Member States. Working Paper, No:31.
  • Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption And Growth. The Quarterly Of Economics, 110 (3), 681-712.
  • Murwirapachena, G., Maredza, A., Choga, I. (2013). The Economic Determinants Of Budget Deficits In South Afica. Mediterranean Journal Of Social Sciences, 4 (13), 561-570.
  • Nath, H. K. (2009). Trade, foreign direct investment, and growth: Evidence from transition economies. Comparative Economic Studies, 51, 20-50.
  • Nawaz, S. (2015). Growth Effects Of Institutions: A Disaggregated Analysis. Economic Modellling, 45, 118-126.
  • Nelson, M. A., Singh, R.D. (1994). The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence From Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43 (1), 167-191.
  • North, D. C. (1999), Kurumlar, Kurumsal Değişim ve Ekonomik Performans, (Çev. Gül Çağalı Güven), Sabancı Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Roubini, N. (1991). Economic And Political Determinants Of Budget Deficits İn Developing Countries. Journal Of International Money And Finance, 10 (1), 49-72.
  • Tanzi, V., Davoodi, H. (1997). Corruption, Public Investment And Growth. International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper No:139.
  • Tavares, J., Wacziarg, R. (2001). How Democracy Affects Growth. European Economic Review, 45 (8), 1341-1378.
  • Tujula, M., Wolswijk, G. (2004). What Determines Fiscal Balances? An Empiricial Investigation In Determinants Of Changes In OECD Budget Balances. Working Paper Series, No: 422.
  • Valeriani, E., Peluso, S. (2011). The Impact Of Institutional Quality On Economic Growth And Development: An Empirical Study. Journal Of Knowlwdge Management, Economics And Information Technology, 1 (6), 1-25.
  • World Bank (2022a). Gross Domestic Product Growth, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • --------(2022b). Gross Fixed Capital Formation, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • --------(2022c). Worldwide Governance Indicators, https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports, 13.08.2022.
  • -------(2022d). Employment Data, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • Zeeshan, M., Rehman, A., Ullah, I., Hussain, A., & Afridi, F. E. A. (2022). Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan. Resources Policy, 78, 102785.

THE ROLE OF POLITICAL STABILITY IN THE RELATIONSHIP OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET BALANCE

Year 2024, Issue: 60, 229 - 241, 17.01.2024

Mustafa Kurt

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1369491
Cited By: 1

Abstract

In the study, the role of political stability in the economic growth-budget balance relationship is examined using panel
threshold regression analysis. In this context, annual data of the European Union countries and Türkiye for the period 2002-
2020 are used for analysis. The results of the fixed effects model show that the relationship between economic growth
and budget balance is positive and non-linear. Panel threshold regression analysis results emphasize that political stability is
important in the relationship between budget balance and economic growth. Improvements in the budget balance below and
above the threshold value positively affect economic growth. However, it is observed that the positive effect of improvements
in budget balance on economic growth is stronger when the political stability in the countries is below the threshold value.

Keywords

Budget balance Economic growth Political stability

References

  • Abdella A. B., Naghavi, N. & Fah. B.C. (2018). The effects of corruption, trade openness and political stability on foreign direct investment: empirical evidence from BRIC countries. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 5 (3), 32-38.
  • Abrams, B. A., Lewis, K. A. (1995). Culturel And Institutional Determinants Of Economic Growth: A Cross-Section Analysis. Public Choice, 83 (3-4), 273-289.
  • Acemoğlu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. (2001). The Colonial Origins Of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review, 91 (5), 1369-1401.
  • Acemoğlu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Cries And Growth. Journal Of Monetary Economics, 50 (1), 49-123.
  • Asteriou, D., Price, S. (2000). Political Uncertainty And Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence. Scottish Journal Of Political Economy, 48 (4), 383-399.
  • Alesina, A., Özler, Ş., Roubini, N., Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability And Economic Growth. Journal Of Economic Growth, 1 (2), 189-211.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries. Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 106 (2), 407-444.
  • Benos, N. (2005). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From OECD Countries. Discuusion Paper.
  • Caporale, G. M. & Skare, M. (2011). Employment Growth, Inflation and Output Growth: Was Phillips Right? Evidince from a Dynamic Panel. Economics and Finance Working Paper Series.no:11-09, London: Brunel University.
  • Dias, J., Tebaldi, E. (2012). Institutions, Human Capital And Economic Growth: The Institutional Mechanism. Structural Change And Economic Mechanism, 23 (3), 300-312.
  • Devereux, M. B., Wen, J. F. (1998). Political Instability, Capital Taxation And Growth. European. Economic Review, 42 (9), 1635-1651.
  • Easterly, W., Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. NBER Working Paper, No. 4499.
  • Easterly, W. R., Wetzel, D. L. (1989). Policy Determinants of Growth. WB Working Papers.
  • Edwards, S., Tabellini, G. (1991). Political Instability, Political Weakness And Inflation: An Empirical Analysis.
  • Engen, E.M., Skinner, J. (1992). Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper, No. 4223.
  • Feng, Y. (1997). Democracy, Political Stability And Economic Growth. British Journal Of Political Science, 27 (3), 391-418.
  • Fine, B. (2004). Endogenous Growth Theory: A Critical Assesment. Cambridge Journal Of Economics, 24 (2), 245-265.
  • Fisher, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomıc Factors In Growth. NBER Working Paper, No 4565.
  • Freitag, M., Sciarini, P. (2001). The Political Economy Of Budget Deficits In The European Union. European Union Politics, 2 (2), 163-189.
  • Gazdar, K., Cherif, M. (2015). Institutions And The Finance-Growth Neux: Empiricial Evidence From MENA Countries. Borsa İstanbul Review, 15 (3), 137-160.
  • Ghali, K. H. (1997). Government Spending and Economic Growth In Saudi Arabia. Journal of Economic Development, 22 (2), 165-172.
  • Gwartney, J., Holcombe, R., Lawson, R. (1998). The Scope of Government and The Wealth of Nations. The Cato of Nations, 18 (2), 163-190.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold Effects In Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimating, Testing and Inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368.
  • Helms, J. L. (1985). The Effect of State and Local Taxes On Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2022a). Tax Revenue, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • -------(2022b), Budget Balance Data, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • -------(2022c), Public Expenditure, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60991462, 20.09.2022.
  • Knack, S., Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures. Economics And Politics, 7 (3), 207-227.
  • Kneller, R., Michael, B., Norman, G. (1999). Growth, Public Policy and The Government Budget Constraint: Evidence From OECD Countries. Discussion Paper, No 98 (14).
  • Landau, D.L. (1983). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study. Southern Economic Journal, No 49, 783-792.
  • Lavigne, R. (2011). The Political And İnstitutional Determinants Of Fiscal Adjustment: Entering And Exiting Fiscal Distress. European Journal Of Political Economy, 27 (1), 17-35.
  • Maher, M., & Zhao, Y. (2022). Do political instability and military expenditure undermine economic growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(8), 956-979.
  • Mara, E. R. (2012). Determinants Of Fiscal Budget Volatility In Old Versus New EU Member States. Working Paper, No:31.
  • Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption And Growth. The Quarterly Of Economics, 110 (3), 681-712.
  • Murwirapachena, G., Maredza, A., Choga, I. (2013). The Economic Determinants Of Budget Deficits In South Afica. Mediterranean Journal Of Social Sciences, 4 (13), 561-570.
  • Nath, H. K. (2009). Trade, foreign direct investment, and growth: Evidence from transition economies. Comparative Economic Studies, 51, 20-50.
  • Nawaz, S. (2015). Growth Effects Of Institutions: A Disaggregated Analysis. Economic Modellling, 45, 118-126.
  • Nelson, M. A., Singh, R.D. (1994). The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence From Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43 (1), 167-191.
  • North, D. C. (1999), Kurumlar, Kurumsal Değişim ve Ekonomik Performans, (Çev. Gül Çağalı Güven), Sabancı Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Roubini, N. (1991). Economic And Political Determinants Of Budget Deficits İn Developing Countries. Journal Of International Money And Finance, 10 (1), 49-72.
  • Tanzi, V., Davoodi, H. (1997). Corruption, Public Investment And Growth. International Monetary Fund, IMF Working Paper No:139.
  • Tavares, J., Wacziarg, R. (2001). How Democracy Affects Growth. European Economic Review, 45 (8), 1341-1378.
  • Tujula, M., Wolswijk, G. (2004). What Determines Fiscal Balances? An Empiricial Investigation In Determinants Of Changes In OECD Budget Balances. Working Paper Series, No: 422.
  • Valeriani, E., Peluso, S. (2011). The Impact Of Institutional Quality On Economic Growth And Development: An Empirical Study. Journal Of Knowlwdge Management, Economics And Information Technology, 1 (6), 1-25.
  • World Bank (2022a). Gross Domestic Product Growth, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • --------(2022b). Gross Fixed Capital Formation, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • --------(2022c). Worldwide Governance Indicators, https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports, 13.08.2022.
  • -------(2022d). Employment Data, https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&country=#, 09.09.2022.
  • Zeeshan, M., Rehman, A., Ullah, I., Hussain, A., & Afridi, F. E. A. (2022). Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan. Resources Policy, 78, 102785.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Budget and Financial Planning
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mustafa Kurt 0000-0002-3130-6227

Early Pub Date January 17, 2024
Publication Date January 17, 2024
Acceptance Date November 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 60

Cite

APA Kurt, M. (2024). EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(60), 229-241. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1369491
AMA Kurt M. EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ. PAUSBED. January 2024;(60):229-241. doi:10.30794/pausbed.1369491
Chicago Kurt, Mustafa. “EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 60 (January 2024): 229-41. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1369491.
EndNote Kurt M (January 1, 2024) EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 60 229–241.
IEEE M. Kurt, “EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ”, PAUSBED, no. 60, pp. 229–241, January 2024, doi: 10.30794/pausbed.1369491.
ISNAD Kurt, Mustafa. “EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 60 (January 2024), 229-241. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1369491.
JAMA Kurt M. EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ. PAUSBED. 2024;:229–241.
MLA Kurt, Mustafa. “EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 60, 2024, pp. 229-41, doi:10.30794/pausbed.1369491.
Vancouver Kurt M. EKONOMİK BÜYÜME BÜTÇE DENGESİ İLİŞKİSİNDE SİYASİ İSTİKRARIN ROLÜ. PAUSBED. 2024(60):229-41.

Cited By

Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Nedensellik Analizi
Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD)
https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1429454
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