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ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ

Year 2025, Issue: 68, 1 - 19, 12.05.2025
https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1541738

Abstract

Ticaret, finans ve faktör piyasaları açısından küresel ekonomideki yüksek entegrasyon düzeyi, bir ülkedeki ekonomik sorunların diğer ülkelere aktarılmasına yol açabilmektedir. Dünya’nın en büyük iki ekonomisi olan ABD ve Çin’deki ekonomik bozulmalar veya politika farklılaşmaları (şoklar) diğer ülkeleri ekonomik ve finansal olarak etkileyebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik ve finansal göstergeler açısından küresel ölçekte referans kabul edilen ABD ve Çin’de enflasyon, faiz oranları, çıktı açığı ve politika belirsizliği değişkenlerine gelen pozitif şokların Türkiye ekonomisini nasıl etkilediği global VAR yöntemi kullanılarak 1980:Ç1-2022:Ç4 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Ayrıca küresel politika belirsizliği ve küresel reel döviz kurundaki artışların Türkiye’ye etkisi de incelemeye dahil edilmektedir. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’deki etkiler enflasyon, faiz oranı, çıktı açığı, döviz kuru, reel GSYH ve politika belirsizliği göstergeleri üzerinden izlenmektedir. Sonuçlar, Çin’deki şokların ticaret kanalı üzerinden Türkiye ekonomisine aktarıldığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, reel üretim kanalı üzerinden Çin’in Türkiye üzerindeki etkisi ABD'ye kıyasla daha güçlüdür. Bu ülkelerdeki faiz artışlarının neden olacağı finansal sıkılaşmanın ise Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde bir etkiye yol açmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. ABD’deki finansal sıkılaşmanın Türkiye’de bir etkisi bulunmasa bile; çıktı açığı şoklarının Türkiye’de finansal sıkılaşma etkisi doğurduğu görülmektedir.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. ve Furceri, D. (2022). “The world uncertainty index”, National bureau of economic research working paper, 29763.
  • Allegret, J. P., Couharde, C. ve Guillaumin, C. (2012). “The impact of external shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a structural VAR model with block exogeneity”, Economie internationale, 4, 35-89.
  • Auer, R., Borio, C., ve Filardo, A. (2017). “The globalization of Inflation: The growing importance of global value chains”, BIS working paper, 602, January.
  • Azad, N. F., ve Serletis, A. (2022). “Spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies”, Emerging Markets Review, 51, 100875.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., ve Park, W. Y. (2020). “Global spillover effects of US uncertainty”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 114, 71-89.
  • Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Reenen, J.V. (2007). “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics”, Review of Economic Studies, 74/2, 391-415.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). “The impact of uncertainty shocks”, Econometrica, 77/3, 623–685.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). “Fluctuations in uncertainty”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28/2, 153–176. Byrne, J.P., Sakemoto, R. ve Xu, B. (2020). “Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals”, Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ. 47, 499–528.
  • Canova, F. (2005). “The transmission of US shocks to Latin America”, Journal of Applied econometrics, 20/2, 229-251.
  • Carriѐre-Swallow, Y. ve Cespedes, L.F. (2013). “The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies”, Journal of International Economics, 90 (2), 316–325.
  • Cheng, C.H.J. (2017). “Effects of Foreign and Domestic Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on South Korea”, Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 1-11.
  • Chua, W. S., N. Endut, N. Khadri, ve Sim, W. H. (2013). “Global Monetary Easing: Spillovers and Lines of Defense”, Bank Negara Malaysia Working Paper 3. Kuala Lumpur: Bank Negara Malaysia.
  • Çakır, M., Altundere Doğan, M. B., ve Güney, İ. (2020). “Avro bölgesi şoklarının Türkiye’ye etkileri: Global VAR yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, 178, 37-61.
  • Dahlhaus, T., ve Vasishtha, G. (2014). “The impact of US monetary policy normalization on capital flows to emerging-market economies”, Bank of Canada working paper, 53, 1-25.
  • Daştan, M., ve Karabulut, K. (2022). “Effects of global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic activity: The case of Turkey”, Trends in Business and Economics, 36/1, 133-142.
  • Dornbusch, R., Park, Y. C., ve Claessens, S. (2000). “Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads”, The World Bank Research Observer, 15/2, 177-197.
  • Feldkircher, M. (2015). “A global macro model for emerging Europe”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43/3, 706-726.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). “Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy”, Journal of international Money and Finance, 67, 41-61.
  • Gubler, M. ve Hertweck, M.S. (2013). “Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: structural evidence for the U.S.”, J. Int. Money Finance, 37, 324–352.
  • Hall, S. G., Tavlas, G. S., ve Wang, Y. (2023). “Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 131, 102776.
  • Harahap, B. A., Bary, P., Panjaitan, L. N. ve Satyanugroho, R. (2016). “Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia”, ADBI Working Paper Series, 616, 1-26.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2013). World economic outlook. IMF. (2014). IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report. (02.05.2024) https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/062514.pdf
  • Ivrendi, M., ve Yildirim, Z. (2013). “Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies”, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Economics Discussion Papers, (No. 2013-61).
  • Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C., ve Ng, S. (2015). “Measuring uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 105/3, 1177–1216.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N. (2000). “Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach”, Journal of Monetary economics, 45/3, 561-586.
  • Kozluk, T ve Mehrotra, A. (2009). “The Impact of Chinese Monetary Policy Shocks on East and South-East Asia”, Econ Transit, 17(1), 121–145
  • Lavigne, R., Sarker, S., ve Vasishtha, G. (2014). “Spillover effects of quantitative easing on emerging-market economies”, Bank of Canada Review, 2014/Autumn, 23-33.
  • Liu, L. (2021). “US Economic uncertainty shocks and China’s economic activities: A time-varying perspective”, Sage Open, 11/3.
  • Luk, P., Cheng, M., ve Wong, K. (2020). “Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillo¬vers in Small Open Economies: The Case of Hong Kong”, Pasific Eco¬nomic Review, 25/1, 21-46.
  • Maćkowiak, B. (2007). “External shocks, US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets”, Journal of monetary economics, 54(8), 2512-2520.
  • Meier, M., ve E. Pinto. (2024). “Covid-19 Supply Chain Disruptions”, European Economic Review, 162:104674.
  • Mohanty, M. S. (2014). “The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets-An overview”, BIS Paper, (78a).
  • Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T. ve Weiner, S.M. (2004). “Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22/2, 129-162.
  • Qian, C., Zhang, T. ve Li, J. (2023). “The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China”, Resources Policy, 85.
  • Shah, S.Z., Baharumshah, A.Z., Said, R., ve Murdipi, R. (2019). “The Interna¬tional Transmission of Volatility Shocks on an Emerging Economy: The Case of Malaysia”, Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 56/2, 243-265.
  • Smith, L.V. and A. Galesi (2014). GVAR Toolbox 2.0. (03.05.2024) https://sites.google.com/site/gvarmodelling/gvar-toolbox.
  • Tam, P. S. (2018). “Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty”, Applied Economics, 50/34-35, 3718-3734.
  • Tunay, K. B., ve Tunay, N. (2019). “Küçük Dışa Açık Ekonomilerde Makro Finansal Şoklar ve Para Politikalarının Etkinliği: Türkiye Örneği”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4/4, 459-472.
  • Yildirim, Z. (2020). “External and domestic shocks, exchange rate, country risk premia and macroeconomic conditions in Turkey”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi-Istanbul Journal of Economics, 70/1, 73-112

CHINA-US MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS AND TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALYSIS

Year 2025, Issue: 68, 1 - 19, 12.05.2025
https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1541738

Abstract

The high level of integration in the global economy in terms of trade, financial and factor markets can lead to the transmission of economic problems in one country to other countries. Economic disruptions or policy differences (shocks) in the US and China, the world's two largest economies, may also affect other countries economically and financially. This study analyzes how positive shocks to inflation, interest rates, output gap, and policy uncertainty variables in the US and China, globally recognized as benchmarks in terms of economic and financial indicators, affect the Turkish economy using the global VAR method over the period 1980:Q1-2022:Q4. Additionally, the effects of an increase in global policy uncertainty and the global real exchange rate in Türkiye are also included in the analysis. According to the results of the analyses, the impact in Türkiye is observed through inflation, interest rates, output gap, exchange rate, real GDP, and policy uncertainty indicators. The results indicate that shocks in China are transmitted to the Turkish economy through the trade channel. Moreover, China's impact on Turkey through the real output channel is stronger than the US. It is found that the financial tightening caused by interest rate hikes in these countries does not impact the Turkish economy. Even if the financial tightening in the US does not impact Türkiye, output gap shocks seem to create a financial tightening effect in Türkiye.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. ve Furceri, D. (2022). “The world uncertainty index”, National bureau of economic research working paper, 29763.
  • Allegret, J. P., Couharde, C. ve Guillaumin, C. (2012). “The impact of external shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a structural VAR model with block exogeneity”, Economie internationale, 4, 35-89.
  • Auer, R., Borio, C., ve Filardo, A. (2017). “The globalization of Inflation: The growing importance of global value chains”, BIS working paper, 602, January.
  • Azad, N. F., ve Serletis, A. (2022). “Spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies”, Emerging Markets Review, 51, 100875.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., ve Park, W. Y. (2020). “Global spillover effects of US uncertainty”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 114, 71-89.
  • Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Reenen, J.V. (2007). “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics”, Review of Economic Studies, 74/2, 391-415.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). “The impact of uncertainty shocks”, Econometrica, 77/3, 623–685.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). “Fluctuations in uncertainty”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28/2, 153–176. Byrne, J.P., Sakemoto, R. ve Xu, B. (2020). “Commodity price co-movement: heterogeneity and the time-varying impact of fundamentals”, Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ. 47, 499–528.
  • Canova, F. (2005). “The transmission of US shocks to Latin America”, Journal of Applied econometrics, 20/2, 229-251.
  • Carriѐre-Swallow, Y. ve Cespedes, L.F. (2013). “The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies”, Journal of International Economics, 90 (2), 316–325.
  • Cheng, C.H.J. (2017). “Effects of Foreign and Domestic Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on South Korea”, Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 1-11.
  • Chua, W. S., N. Endut, N. Khadri, ve Sim, W. H. (2013). “Global Monetary Easing: Spillovers and Lines of Defense”, Bank Negara Malaysia Working Paper 3. Kuala Lumpur: Bank Negara Malaysia.
  • Çakır, M., Altundere Doğan, M. B., ve Güney, İ. (2020). “Avro bölgesi şoklarının Türkiye’ye etkileri: Global VAR yaklaşımı”, Maliye Dergisi, 178, 37-61.
  • Dahlhaus, T., ve Vasishtha, G. (2014). “The impact of US monetary policy normalization on capital flows to emerging-market economies”, Bank of Canada working paper, 53, 1-25.
  • Daştan, M., ve Karabulut, K. (2022). “Effects of global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic activity: The case of Turkey”, Trends in Business and Economics, 36/1, 133-142.
  • Dornbusch, R., Park, Y. C., ve Claessens, S. (2000). “Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads”, The World Bank Research Observer, 15/2, 177-197.
  • Feldkircher, M. (2015). “A global macro model for emerging Europe”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43/3, 706-726.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). “Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy”, Journal of international Money and Finance, 67, 41-61.
  • Gubler, M. ve Hertweck, M.S. (2013). “Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: structural evidence for the U.S.”, J. Int. Money Finance, 37, 324–352.
  • Hall, S. G., Tavlas, G. S., ve Wang, Y. (2023). “Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 131, 102776.
  • Harahap, B. A., Bary, P., Panjaitan, L. N. ve Satyanugroho, R. (2016). “Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia”, ADBI Working Paper Series, 616, 1-26.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2013). World economic outlook. IMF. (2014). IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report. (02.05.2024) https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/062514.pdf
  • Ivrendi, M., ve Yildirim, Z. (2013). “Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies”, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Economics Discussion Papers, (No. 2013-61).
  • Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C., ve Ng, S. (2015). “Measuring uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 105/3, 1177–1216.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N. (2000). “Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach”, Journal of Monetary economics, 45/3, 561-586.
  • Kozluk, T ve Mehrotra, A. (2009). “The Impact of Chinese Monetary Policy Shocks on East and South-East Asia”, Econ Transit, 17(1), 121–145
  • Lavigne, R., Sarker, S., ve Vasishtha, G. (2014). “Spillover effects of quantitative easing on emerging-market economies”, Bank of Canada Review, 2014/Autumn, 23-33.
  • Liu, L. (2021). “US Economic uncertainty shocks and China’s economic activities: A time-varying perspective”, Sage Open, 11/3.
  • Luk, P., Cheng, M., ve Wong, K. (2020). “Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillo¬vers in Small Open Economies: The Case of Hong Kong”, Pasific Eco¬nomic Review, 25/1, 21-46.
  • Maćkowiak, B. (2007). “External shocks, US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets”, Journal of monetary economics, 54(8), 2512-2520.
  • Meier, M., ve E. Pinto. (2024). “Covid-19 Supply Chain Disruptions”, European Economic Review, 162:104674.
  • Mohanty, M. S. (2014). “The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets-An overview”, BIS Paper, (78a).
  • Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T. ve Weiner, S.M. (2004). “Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22/2, 129-162.
  • Qian, C., Zhang, T. ve Li, J. (2023). “The impact of international commodity price shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from the US and China”, Resources Policy, 85.
  • Shah, S.Z., Baharumshah, A.Z., Said, R., ve Murdipi, R. (2019). “The Interna¬tional Transmission of Volatility Shocks on an Emerging Economy: The Case of Malaysia”, Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 56/2, 243-265.
  • Smith, L.V. and A. Galesi (2014). GVAR Toolbox 2.0. (03.05.2024) https://sites.google.com/site/gvarmodelling/gvar-toolbox.
  • Tam, P. S. (2018). “Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty”, Applied Economics, 50/34-35, 3718-3734.
  • Tunay, K. B., ve Tunay, N. (2019). “Küçük Dışa Açık Ekonomilerde Makro Finansal Şoklar ve Para Politikalarının Etkinliği: Türkiye Örneği”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4/4, 459-472.
  • Yildirim, Z. (2020). “External and domestic shocks, exchange rate, country risk premia and macroeconomic conditions in Turkey”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi-Istanbul Journal of Economics, 70/1, 73-112
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ahmet Ekrem Kaya 0000-0002-0860-2001

Early Pub Date May 2, 2025
Publication Date May 12, 2025
Submission Date September 1, 2024
Acceptance Date February 12, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Issue: 68

Cite

APA Kaya, A. E. (2025). ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(68), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1541738
AMA Kaya AE. ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ. PAUSBED. May 2025;(68):1-19. doi:10.30794/pausbed.1541738
Chicago Kaya, Ahmet Ekrem. “ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 68 (May 2025): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1541738.
EndNote Kaya AE (May 1, 2025) ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 68 1–19.
IEEE A. E. Kaya, “ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ”, PAUSBED, no. 68, pp. 1–19, May 2025, doi: 10.30794/pausbed.1541738.
ISNAD Kaya, Ahmet Ekrem. “ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 68 (May 2025), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1541738.
JAMA Kaya AE. ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ. PAUSBED. 2025;:1–19.
MLA Kaya, Ahmet Ekrem. “ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ”. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 68, 2025, pp. 1-19, doi:10.30794/pausbed.1541738.
Vancouver Kaya AE. ÇİN-ABD MAKROEKONOMİK ŞOKLARI VE TÜRKİYE: GLOBAL VAR ANALİZİ. PAUSBED. 2025(68):1-19.