TEMETTÜ POLİTİKASININ FİYAT/KAZANÇ ORANI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: KOŞULLU VE DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Year 2025, Issue: 70, 143 - 159, 05.09.2025

Bahadır Uysal , Evren Yanya

https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1631244

Abstract

Pay senedi değerlemesinde, fiyat/kazanç oranı ve temettü ödeme oranı yatırımcıların kullandığı ölçütler arasında yer almaktadır. Fiyat/kazanç oranı bir şirketin gelecekteki büyümesine ve karlılığına ilişkin beklentileri yansıtırken, temettü ödeme oranı ise pay sahiplerine temettü olarak ödenen kar oranını göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, temettü ödeme oranının fiyat/kazanç oranı üzerindeki etkisini, öz sermaye karlılık oranı ve beklenen getiri oranı arasındaki değerlere bağlı olarak doğrusal olmayan regresyon modelleri ile incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. BIST Sınai Endeksi’nde faaliyette bulunan 42 şirket verisi 2018-2023 yılları için panel veri analizi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Analiz bulgularında, öz sermaye karlılık oranının beklenen getiriden büyük veya küçük olması koşuluna göre fiyat/kazanç oranı ile temettü ödeme oranı arasında doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Öz sermaye karlılığının beklenen getiri oranından büyük olması koşulu ile temettü ödeme oranı arttığında, fiyat/kazanç oranı azalarak azalmakta ve dışbükey özellik göstermektedir.

Keywords

Fiyat/kazanç oranı , Temettü politikası , Panel veri analizi

THE IMPACT OF DIVIDEND POLICY ON THE PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO: ANALYSING THE CONDITIONAL AND NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP

Abstract

n stock valuation, price/earnings ratio and dividend payout ratio are among the criteria used by investors. The P/E ratio reflects growth and profitability expectations, while the dividend payout ratio indicates the proportion of profits distributed as dividends. This study aims to examine the effect of dividend payout ratio on price/earnings ratio by using non-linear regression models depending on the values of return on equity ratio and expected rate of return. Data from 42 companies in the BIST Industrial Index for 2018–2023 were analyzed using panel data analysis and non-linear regression models. The findings reveal a non-linear relationship between the P/E ratio and the dividend payout ratio, influenced by whether ROE exceeds the expected return. An increase in the dividend payout ratio, given that the return on equity exceeds the anticipated rate of return, results in a decline in the price-earnings ratio and the manifestation of a convex characteristic.

Keywords

Price-earnings ratio , Dividend policy , Panel data analysis

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