Gelişmiş Ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ekonomik Karmaşıklık (Complexity) İle Çevresel Bozulma Arasındaki İlişki: 2003-2023 Yılları İçin Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Çevresel değişmeler, esas itibariyle ekonomik faaliyetin artan yoğunluğunun ve karmaşıklığının bir sonucudur. Bu çalışmada literatürde IPAT ve STIRPAT olarak bilinen yaklaşımlar esas alınarak geliştirilmiş bir panel veri analizi uygulanmaktadır. Burada ekonomik karmaşıklık (complexity) ile çevresel bozulma arasındaki ilişkiler hem gelişmiş ülkeler hem de Türkiye’nin de içinde bulunduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneklem kümesi için tahmin edilmektedir. Araştırma 2003 ile 2022 yılları arasını kapsamaktadır. Modelde kullanılan veriler Dünya Bankası ve Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Gözlemevi’nden elde edilmiştir. Benzer şekilde ülke örneklem kümeleri oluşturulurken Dünya Bankası’nın Databank filtresi kullanılmıştır. Buna göre Yüksek Gelir grubunda 40 ülke ve gelişmekte olan ülkeleri temsilen orta yüksek gelir grubundaki 37 IBRD ülkesi yer almaktadır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre gelişmekte olan ülkelerde bir birim milli gelir artışı gelişmiş ülkelere nazaran daha fazla CO2 emisyonları ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu bulgu klasik Kuznets eğrisi yaklaşımına uygundur. Aynı zamanda sonuçlar, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Ekonomik Karmaşıklık Endeksi (ECI)’ndeki artışların CO2 emisyonlarında düşüşe neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak çevresel sürdürülebilirlik açısından ülkelerin sanayileşmeleri karmaşık ürünler üreten ve ihraç eden bir yapıya evrilmelidir.

Keywords

• Çevre Kirliliği
• CO2 Emisyonları
• Ekonomik Karmaşıklık
• gelişmekte olan ülkeler

THE RELATIONSHİP BETWEEN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPİNG COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR 2003-2022

Abstract

Environmental changes are essentially a result of the increasing intensity and complexity of economic activity. In this study, a panel data analysis developed based on the approaches known as IPAT and STIRPAT in the literature is applied. Here, the relationships between economic complexity and environmental degradation are estimated for both developed countries and a sample set of developing countries, including Turkey. The research covers the period between 2003 and 2022. The data used in the model were obtained from the World Bank and the Economic Complexity Observatory. Similarly, the World Bank's Databank filter was used when creating country sample sets. Accordingly, there are 40 countries in the High Income group and 37 IBRD countries in the middle-high income group representing developing countries. According to the research results, one unit of national income increase in developing countries creates more CO2 emissions than in developed countries. This finding is consistent with the classical Kuznets curve approach. At the same time, the results show that increases in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions in both developed and developing countries. As a result, in terms of environmental sustainability, the industrialization of countries should evolve into a structure that produces and exports complex products.

Keywords

• Environmental Pollution
• CO2 Emissions
• Economic Complexity
• Developing Countries

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