The Causal Dynamics of Globalization, Human Development and Economic Growth on Ecological Footprint: An HDI-Based Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the causal relationships among globalization, economic growth, human development, and the ecological footprint. Employing the panel Granger causality test developed by Juodis et al. (2021), this study utilizes data from 118 countries spanning the period from 1990 to 2021. I also conduct a multivariate causality analysis for four distinct country groups based on their human development index (very high HDI, high HDI, medium HDI, and low HDI). A key finding of this study is the consistent emergence of a joint causal relationship between globalization and human development and the ecological footprint across all country groups. Similarly, I find globalization and economic growth to be joint Granger causes of the ecological footprint, except for the medium HDI group. Consequently, globalization, along with growth and human development as fundamental economic objectives, emerges as significant drivers of the ecological footprint across all countries. In light of these findings, it is imperative for policymakers to revisit economic policies, giving due consideration to the sustainability of ultimate economic goals.

Keywords

• Globalization
• Economic growth
• Human development
• Ecological footprint
• panel causality

Küreselleşme, İnsani Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Ekolojik Ayak İzi Üzerindeki Nedensel Dinamikleri: İGE'ye Dayalı Ülkeler Arası Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, küreselleşme, ekonomik büyüme, insani gelişim ve ekolojik ayak izi arasındaki nedensel dinamikleri incelemektir. Juodis ve arkadaşları (2021) tarafından geliştirilen panel Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak, 1990-2021 dönemini kapsayan ve 118 ülkeyi içeren veriler analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca, insani gelişme endeksi (İGE) temel alınarak dört farklı ülke grubu (çok yüksek İGE, yüksek İGE, orta İGE ve düşük İGE) için çok değişkenli nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın önemli bulgularından biri, tüm ülke gruplarında küreselleşme ile insani gelişim ve ekolojik ayak izi arasında ortak bir nedensel ilişki olduğunun tutarlı bir şekilde ortaya çıkmasıdır. Benzer şekilde, küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyümenin ekolojik ayak izinin ortak Granger nedeni olduğu bulunmuştur, ancak bu durum orta İGE grubu için geçerli değildir. Sonuç olarak, küreselleşme, ekonomik büyüme ve insani gelişim gibi temel ekonomik hedefler, tüm ülkelerde ekolojik ayak izinin önemli belirleyicileri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu bulgular ışığında, politika yapıcıların ekonomik politikaları gözden geçirmesi ve nihai ekonomik hedeflerin sürdürülebilirliğine gereken önemi vermesi hayati önemdedir.

Keywords

• Küreselleşme
• İktisadi büyüme
• Beşeri Kalkınma
• Ekolojik ayak izi

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