Türkiye'de Enerji İthalatı, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Carı Açık: 1974-2023 Dönemi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1974 ile 2023 dönemindeki Türkiye'de enerji ithalatı, ekonomik büyüme ve cari açık arasındaki ilişkiyi incelenmektedir. Enerji ithalatına büyük ölçüde bağımlı bir ekonomi olarak Türkiye'nin sürekli olarak cari işlemler dengesizlikleriyle karşı karşıya kalması, ticaret açıklarının finansmanının ve dış yükümlülüklerin aşırı dış borç biriktirmeden veya uluslararası rezervlerini azaltmadan yerine getirilmesinin uzun vadeli sürdürülebilirliği konusunda endişelere yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada yıllık zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak, değişkenlerin durağanlığını değerlendirmek için Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) ve Lee-Strazicich (LS) birim kök testleri kullanılmaktadır. Ek olarak, çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki hem kararlı hem de gelişen nedensel ilişkileri araştırmak için Hacker ve Hatemi-J tarafından geliştirilen simetrik ve zamanla değişen nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye'de enerji ithalatı, ekonomik büyüme ve cari açık arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek için VAR modeli kullanılmaktadır. Bulgular, cari işlemler dengesindeki değişimin, enerji ithalatındaki değişimi etkilediğini işaret etmektedir. Bir diğer değişle, bulgular, cari işlemler dengesindeki iyileşmenin, üç yıllık bir gecikmeyle enerji ithalatında artışa yol açmakta olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Enerji ithalatı
• Cari açık
• Ekonomik büyüme

Energy Imports, Economic Growth, And the Current Account Deficit in Türkiye: Evidence From 1974–2023

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the relationship between energy imports, economic growth, and the current account deficit in Türkiye from 1974 to 2023. As an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, Türkiye has consistently faced current account imbalances, which raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of financing trade deficits and fulfilling external obligations without accumulating excessive foreign debt or reducing its international reserves. Using annual time series data, we employ the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), and Lee-Strazicich (LS) unit root tests to evaluate the stationarity of the variables. Additionally, we used symmetric and time-varying causality tests developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J to investigate both stable and evolving causal relationships among the variables. We further employ a VAR framework to examine the relationship between energy imports, economic growth, and the current account deficit in Türkiye. The findings indicate that a decrease in the current account balance causes an increase in energy imports. Namely, an improvement in the current account balance leads to a subsequent rise in energy imports with a three-year lag.

Keywords

• Energy import
• Current account deficit
• Economic growth

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