Savunma Harcamaları ve Gelir Dağılımı: Orta Gelirli Ekonomiler Üzerine Dinamik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Gelir eşitsizliği, zaman içinde derinleşen ve kamu müdahalesinin gerekçesini güçlendiren küresel bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Aynı zamanda, ulusal güvenlik kaygıları dünya genelinde giderek daha belirgin bir hal almaktadır. Bu bağlamda savunma harcamaları, maliye politikasının önemli bir aracını temsil etmektedir. Savunma harcamaları; diğer kamu harcamaları, bütçe dengesi, istihdam, borç yükü ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmakta, dolayısıyla gelir dağılımını da etkilemesi beklenmektedir. Savunma harcaması yalnızca bir güvenlik meselesi değil, aynı zamanda gelir dağılımını şekillendiren bir sosyal refah unsuru olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu durum, özellikle kalıcı kurumsal ve ekonomik kırılganlıklarla karakterize edilen orta gelirli ülkelerde daha belirgin bir hal almaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışma, 2010–2020 dönemini kapsayan 42 orta gelirli ülkeden oluşan dinamik bir panelde savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizde iki aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (System GMM) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçların güvenilirliğini artırmak amacıyla Driskoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalar tahmincisi ile sağlamlık kontrolü yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Gelir Dağılımı
• Savunma Harcamaları
• Sistem GMM

Defence Expenditures and Income Distribution: Dynamic Evidence from Middle-Income Economies

Abstract

Income inequality is a global concern that has been deepening over time and reinforces the rationale for public intervention. At the same time, national security concerns have become increasingly prominent across countries. In this context, defence expenditures represent an important instrument of fiscal policy. Defence spending exerts significant effects on other public expenditures, budget balance, employment, debt burden, and environmental sustainability, and thus is also expected to influence income distribution. Defence expenditure is not solely a security issue; it also emerges as a social welfare factor that shapes income distribution. This is especially evident in middle-income countries characterized by persistent institutional and economic vulnerabilities. Within this framework, the study aims to examine the effect of defence expenditure on income distribution in a dynamic panel of 42 middle- income countries over the period 2010–2020. The analysis employs the two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM). Furthermore, the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator is utilized to ensure the robustness of the findings. The findings indicate that defence spending has a negative, statistically significant, and robust effect on income distribution.

Keywords

• Income Distribution
• Defence Expenditures
• System GMM

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