BDT Ekonomilerinde Ticari Açıklık ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi: Panel Eşik Modeli Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu (BDT) ekonomilerinde ticari açıklık ile cari işlemler dengesi ayarlaması arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. 1995–2024 dönemini kapsayan dokuz BDT ekonomisine ait panel veri kullanılarak yapılan analizde, ticari açıklığın cari işlemler dengesi üzerindeki etkisinin ticari entegrasyonun farklı düzeylerine göre değişip değişmediğini incelemek amacıyla Hansen (1999) panel eşik modeli uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, eşik değerinin GSYH’nin yaklaşık %98,6’sına karşılık geldiğini ve ticari entegrasyon bu düzeyi aştığında ticari açıklığın cari işlemler dengesi üzerindeki etkisinin belirgin biçimde güçlendiğini göstermektedir. Eşik değerin altında ticari açıklığın etkisi sınırlı kalırken, daha yüksek ticari entegrasyon düzeyleri dış dengelerde bozulma ile ilişkilidir. Bu bulgular, geçiş ekonomilerinde dış denge dinamiklerinin analizinde doğrusal olmayan ayarlama mekanizmalarının dikkate alınmasının önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, ihracatın çeşitlendirilmesine ve yerli üretim kapasitesinin güçlendirilmesine yönelik politikaların dış sürdürülebilirliğin iyileştirilmesine katkı sağlayabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Doğrusal Olmayan Ayarlama
• Panel Eşik Modeli
• BDT Ekonomileri

Trade Openness and Current Account Adjustment in CIS Economies: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Model

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between trade openness and current account adjustment in the economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Using panel data for nine CIS economies over the period 1995–2024, the analysis employs the Hansen (1999) panel threshold model to examine whether the impact of trade openness on current account balances varies across different regimes of trade integration. The estimated threshold occurs at approximately 98.6 percent of GDP, indicating that the effect of trade openness on the current account balance becomes significantly stronger once trade integration exceeds this level. While trade openness has a limited effect below the threshold, higher levels of trade integration are associated with a deterioration in external balances. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for nonlinear adjustment mechanisms when analyzing external balance dynamics in transition economies and suggest that policies aimed at export diversification and strengthening domestic production capacity may contribute to improving external sustainability.

Keywords

• Nonlinear Adjustment
• Panel Threshold Model
• CIS Economies

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