Jeopolitik Risk ve Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliğinin Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Uzun Dönemli Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1985–2024 dönemi için Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicilerini ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve jeopolitik risk odağında incelemektedir. Söz konusu temel risk unsurlarına ek olarak analizde, uzun dönemli ampirik çerçeve kapsamında iktisadi büyüme ve kurumsal kalite kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinde ortaya çıkabilecek yapısal değişimleri dikkate almak amacıyla çalışmada, kesirli frekans değerlerini göz önünde bulunduran gelişmiş zaman serisi ekonometrisi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve jeopolitik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, belirsizlikteki artışların ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin, algılanan riski yükselterek ve yatırımcı güvenini zayıflatarak yabancı yatırımcıları caydırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, iktisadi büyüme ve kurumsal kalitenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde pozitif etkiler oluşturduğu, ancak bu etkilerin risk ve belirsizlik değişkenlerine kıyasla ikincil düzeyde kaldığı görülmektedir. Genel olarak bulgular, Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerinin yalnızca ekonomik temellerden ziyade, büyük ölçüde risk ve belirsizlik koşulları tarafından şekillendiğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, yabancı sermayenin çekilmesinde makroekonomik istikrarın, politika öngörülebilirliğinin ve jeopolitik risklerin azaltılmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır. Politika açısından değerlendirildiğinde, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin azaltılması ve jeopolitik istikrarın güçlendirilmesi, Türkiye’nin yatırım ortamını iyileştirmeye yönelik temel öncelikler olarak öne çıkmaktadır.

Keywords

• doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• ekonomik politika belirsizliği
• jeopolitik risk
• kurumsal kalite

Long-run Impacts of Geopolitical Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Foreign Direct Investments in Türkiye

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Türkiye over the period 1985–2024, with a particular focus on economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. In addition to these key risk factors, the analysis also incorporates economic growth and institutional quality as control variables within a long-run empirical framework. To account for possible structural changes in the Turkish economy, the study employs advanced time-series econometric techniques that consider fractional frequency values. The empirical findings reveal that both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk have statistically significant and negative effects on FDI inflows. These results indicate that increases in uncertainty and geopolitical tensions discourage foreign investors by raising perceived risk and weakening investment confidence. In contrast, economic growth and institutional quality are found to exert positive effects on FDI, although their influence is secondary compared to risk-related variables. Overall, the results suggest that FDI inflows to Türkiye are primarily driven by risk and uncertainty conditions rather than purely economic fundamentals. The findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability, policy predictability, and geopolitical risk mitigation in attracting foreign capital. From a policy perspective, reducing economic policy uncertainty and strengthening geopolitical stability emerge as key priorities for improving Türkiye’s investment climate.

Keywords

• foreign direct investment
• economic policy uncertainty
• geopolitical risk
• institutional quality

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