Testing the Material Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: The Role of Mineral Resources and Urbanization

Abstract

This study tests the Material Kuznets Curve (MKC) hypothesis for Turkey (2000-2021) using ARDL bounds testing, examining relationships between material footprint per capita, economic growth, mineral rents, and urbanization. Utilizing UNEP Global Material Flows Database and World Bank indicators, we estimate ARDL(1,1,1,1,1) specification. The bounds F-statistic (57.71) substantially exceeds critical values, confirming robust cointegration. The error correction term (ECT = -0.955, p < 0.001) indicates 95.5% annual disequilibrium correction. Long-run results reveal mineral rents exhibit strong positive effect on material footprint (β = 3.919, p = 0.004), supporting resource curse hypothesis in environmental context. GDP per capita shows significant positive relationship (β = 0.003, p = 0.011), while GDP² remains insignificant (p = 0.328), indicating Turkey has not reached MKC turning point. Findings provide first joint analysis of material footprint, mineral rents, and urbanization for Turkey, with important implications for sustainable resource management and circular economy transitions in rapidly industrializing economies. Results suggest active policy interventions necessary for decoupling economic growth from material consumption, particularly targeting resource governance and infrastructure development aligned with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption) and SDG 8 (Sustainable Growth).

Keywords

• Material Kuznets Curve
• Material Footprint
• ARDL
• Mineral Rents
• Circular Economy
• Sustainable Development

Türkiye'de Materyal Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Maden Kaynakları ve Kentleşmenin Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye için (2000-2021 dönemi) Materyal Kuznets Eğrisi (MKC) hipotezini ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle incelemekte; kişi başına materyal ayak izi, ekonomik büyüme, mineral rantları ve kentleşme arasındaki ilişkileri analiz etmektedir. UNEP Küresel Materyal Akışları Veri Tabanı ve Dünya Bankası göstergeleri kullanılarak ARDL(1,1,1,1,1) modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Sınır testi F-istatistiğinin (57.71) kritik değerleri önemli ölçüde aşması, güçlü bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisini doğrulamaktadır. Hata düzeltme terimi (ECT = -0.955, p < 0.001), dengesizliklerin yıllık %95.5 oranında düzeltildiğini göstermektedir. Uzun dönem sonuçları, mineral rantlarının materyal ayak izi üzerinde güçlü ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (β = 3.919, p = 0.004); bu durum çevresel bağlamda kaynak laneti hipotezini desteklemektedir. Kişi başına düşen GSYH anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki sergilerken (β = 0.003, p = 0.011), GSYH² değişkeni anlamsız bulunmuştur (p = 0.328). Bu sonuç, Türkiye’nin henüz MKC dönüm noktasına ulaşmadığını göstermektedir. Bulgular, Türkiye için materyal ayak izi, mineral rantları ve kentleşmeyi birlikte ele alan ilk çalışma olma özelliği taşımakta; hızlı sanayileşen ekonomilerde sürdürülebilir kaynak yönetimi ve döngüsel ekonomi dönüşümleri açısından önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır. Sonuçlar, ekonomik büyümenin materyal tüketiminden ayrıştırılması için özellikle kaynak yönetişimi ve altyapı gelişimini hedefleyen aktif politika müdahalelerinin gerekli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu politikaların, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları arasında yer alan SKA 12 (Sorumlu Tüketim ve Üretim) ve SKA 8 (İnsana Yakışır İş ve Ekonomik Büyüme) ile uyumlu olması önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

• Materyal Kuznets Eğrisi
• Materyal Ayak İzi
• ARDL
• Mineral Rantları
• Döngüsel Ekonomi
• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma

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