Fransa ve Almanya’nın Büyük Stratejileri Çerçevesinde Gelecek Vizyonlarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Abstract

Avrupa Birliği'nin başat aktörleri olan Fransa ve Almanya’nın büyük stratejileri ile bunların gelecek vizyonlarına dönüşümü bu çalışmada karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilecektir. Aktörlerin kıta Avrupa’sındaki konumları, Avrupa Birliği içindeki rolleri ve ekonomik güçleri gibi konularda benzerlik olsa da bölgesel ve küresel alanda stratejik eylem ve güç projeksiyonlarının uygulanması bağlamında farklılıklar da görülmektedir. Çalışmadaki analizler öncelikli olarak aktörlerin resmi strateji belgelerine dayanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede Fransa, büyük stratejisini gerçekleştirmek için güç odaklı bir stratejik otonomiyi hedeflerken bununla beraber nükleer caydırıcılığını sürdürme, postkolonyal etki sahasını koruma ve gerekirse askerî harekât düzenleme araçlarını kullanma motivasyonunu izlemektedir. Buna karşın Almanya, karşılıklı ekonomik bağımlılık ilişkileri çerçevesinde güçlü bağlar kurarken uluslararası kurum ve kuruluşların etkinliğini de desteklemektedir. Ayrıca askeri gücün yerine, sorunların diplomatik yollarla çözülmesi yöntemini benimsemiştir. Fransa’nın geleceğe dönük vizyonu; stratejik otonominin sağlanması, gelişmiş bir nükleer caydırıcılığın güvence altına alınması ve yüksek teknolojiye dayanan sanayi girişimlerine dayanmaktadır. Almanya’nın gelecek vizyonu ise 2045 yılına kadar iklim nötrlüğü hedefine ulaşılması, yapay zekâ destekli dijital dönüşümün gerçekleştirilmesi ve demografi sorunlarının çözümü çerçevesinde şekillenmiştir. Aktörler arasında Ukrayna-Rusya Savaşı çerçevesinde güvenlik ve savunma alanında yakın politikalar benimsenmiş olsa da savunma sanayisinin gelişimi, enerji ve transatlantik ilişkiler gibi konularda ayrışma görülmektedir. Makale, Fransa ve Almanya’nın büyük stratejileri odağında gelecek vizyonlarını analiz ederek Avrupa güvenlik siyasetine özgün katkılar sağlamayı amaçlamıştır.

Keywords

• Fransa
• Almanya
• Avrupa Birliği
• Stratejik Otonomi
• Gelecek Vizyonu

A Comparative Analysis of the Future Visions of France and Germany Within the Framework of Their Grand Strategies

Abstract

This study will comparatively analyze the grand strategies of France and Germany, the dominant actors in the European Union, and their transformation into future visions. While the actors share similarities in their positions in continental Europe, their roles within the European Union, and their economic power, differences are also evident in how they implement strategic actions and project power in the regional and global arenas. The analyses in this study are primarily based on the actors' official strategy documents. In this context, France aims for power-oriented strategic autonomy to realize its grand strategy, while simultaneously pursuing its objectives of maintaining nuclear deterrence, protecting its post-colonial sphere of influence, and, if necessary, employing military operations. In contrast, Germany, while establishing strong ties within the framework of mutual economic interdependence, also supports the effectiveness of international institutions and organizations. Furthermore, it has adopted the method of resolving problems through diplomatic means rather than military force. France's future vision is based on achieving strategic autonomy, securing an advanced nuclear deterrence, and high-technology industrial initiatives. Germany's future vision is shaped by achieving climate neutrality by 2045, implementing an AI-powered digital transformation, and solving demographic problems. While the actors have adopted similar security and defense policies in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, divergences are evident in areas such as defense industry development, energy, and transatlantic relations. This article aims to make a unique contribution to European security politics by analyzing the future visions of France and Germany, with a focus on their grand strategies.

Keywords

• France
• Germany
• European Union
• Strategic Autonomy
• Vision for the Future

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