EXTERNAL DEFICIT PROBLEM IN KYRGYZSTAN

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the external deficit problem in Kyrgyzstan and also the causes of the current account deficit for 2000:1-2016:4 time periods. VAR-analysis approach and the Johansen cointegration methods have been used. According to the Johansen cointegration test results, there is no cointegration between export and import series, which is why Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade deficit is not sustainable. In the short term, the current account deficits, which are being carried out without any very important problems with the help of remittances, foreign debts and foreign direct investments, may become an important problem in the long run. To prevent this, there is a need for more active and more effective policies in the country to support real sectors that can compete with the rest of the world

Keywords

• external deficit, export, import, sustainability

ПРОБЛЕМА ВНЕШНЕГО ДЕФИЦИТА В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ

Abstract

Целью данной статьи является изучение проблемы внешнего дефицита в Кыргызстане, а также причин дефицита текущего счета за 2000:1-2016:4 периода времени. Для достижения цели использованы подход VAR-анализа и метод коинтеграции Йохансена. Согласно коинтеграционному тесту Йохансена, нет никакой коинтеграции между сериями экспорта и импорта, поэтому, можно сказать, что дефицит внешней торговли Кыргызстана не является устойчивым. В краткосрочной перспективе дефицит текущего счета, который покрывается без каких-либо очень важных проблем с помощью доходов мигрантов за рубежом, внешних долгов и прямых иностранных инвестиций, может стать важной проблемой в долгосрочной перспективе. Для того чтобы избежать этого, потребуется более активная и эффективная политика поддержки реальных секторов экономики, которые могут конкурировать с остальным миром.

Keywords

• внешний дефицит,экспорт,импорт,устойчивость

KIRGIZİSTAN’DA DIŞ AÇIK SORUNU

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the external deficit problem in Kyrgyzstan and also the causes of the current account deficit for 2000:1-2016:4 time periods. VAR-analysis approach and the Johansen cointegration methods have been used. According to the Johansen cointegration test results, there is no cointegration between export and import series, which is why Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade deficit is not sustainable. In the short term, the current account deficits, which are being carried out without any very important problems with the help of remittances, foreign debts and foreign direct investments, may become an important problem in the long run. To prevent this, there is a need for more active and more effective policies in the country to support real sectors that can compete with the rest of the world.

Keywords

• external deficit,export,import,sustainability

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