ВНЕШНЕДОЛГОВОЕ ПОЛОЖЕНИЕ СТРАН ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ НА РУБЕЖЕ ВЕКОВ: ОЦЕНКА И РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНО-СОПОСТАВИТЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ

Abstract

The burden of External Debt (ED), created as a result of inappropriate policies, and financial-economic activity of modern management, may change the terms of the economic system towards infringing the interests of future generations. On issues of ED and methods of its solution for the future, hardly received any attention from scholars and practitioners in the Central Asia (CA) countries. Under the new conditions of globalization of the existing system of evaluation criteria of estimation of external debt situation of countries is imperfect, because in the classical form in the denominator of three of the four criteria are taken into account Income from Exports (IE) and the more is last, the situation of the countries is like it would seem the best. However, this does not take into account the export structure, which entails the subsequent rises in ED. Therefore, the article offers a different set of criteria, which allows to reliably estimate the position of external debt situation of the countries. During the 13 years (1997 to 2009) analyzed the Gross Index (GI) of ED among CA countries 10 years has held a privileged position of Tajikistan, and inappropriate 11 years of Kazakhstan. Rate of decline from previous years GIED took place: for 6 years in Uzbekistan, 3 years in Tajikistan, two years in Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately, there was the growth rate of GIED all these 13 years in Kazakhstan, 10 years in Kyrgyzstan, 9 years in Tajikistan, 6 years in Uzbekistan. For 13 years GIED \ GDP has exceeded its limit during that period in Kyrgyzstan, 10 years in Kazakhstan, 7 years in Tajikistan, and only during 2002. in Uzbekistan. By GIED \ IE had the average position - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and improper - Kyrgyzstan. The costs of servicing ED / IE exceeded its limit in Kazakhstan for 10 of the 13 analyzed years and only in 2001 in Kyrgyzstan. At ED per capita / per capita income six years occupied a privileged position 2 years Uzbekistan. And the improper position of 5 years occupied Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, 3 years - Tajikistan.