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EXTERNAL DEFICIT PROBLEM IN KYRGYZSTAN

Year 2018, Issue: 77, 18 - 26, 01.05.2018

Junus Ganiev , Damira Baigonushova

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the external deficit problem in Kyrgyzstan and also the causes of the current account deficit for 2000:1-2016:4 time periods. VAR-analysis approach and the Johansen cointegration methods have been used. According to the Johansen cointegration test results, there is no cointegration between export and import series, which is why Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade deficit is not sustainable. In the short term, the current account deficits, which are being carried out without any very important problems with the help of remittances, foreign debts and foreign direct investments, may become an important problem in the long run. To prevent this, there is a need for more active and more effective policies in the country to support real sectors that can compete with the rest of the world

Keywords

external deficit export import sustainability

References

  • Akmoldoev, K., Budaichieva, A. The Impact of Remittances in Kyrgyzstan Economy // Proceedings of International Conference on Eurasian Economies. – Almaty, 2012. – Р. 6-13.
  • Ansari, M. I., ve Ojemakinde A. Explaining Asymmetry in the US Merchandise and Service Account Balance: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the US Current Account Woes? // The International Trade Journal. – 2003. – № 17. – P. 51-80.
  • Aristovnik, A. Current account deficit sustainability in selected transition economies” // Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci. – 2006. – № 24(1). – Р. 81-102.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., Fountas, S. Current Account Deficit Sustainability: a Panel Approach // Journal of Economic Integration. – 2005. – № 20(3). – Р. 514-529.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Atabaev, N., Ganiyev, C. Kırgızistan’da Dış Ticaretin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri // Reforma. – 2014. – № 3(63). – Р. 12-17.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Pirimbayev, C. Kırgızistan’da Bütçe Açığı İle Dış Ticaret Açığı İlişkisi”, Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. – 2016. – № 5 (1). – S. 64-85.
  • Corden, W. M. Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System. – Oxford: Oxford University Press, and Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1994.
  • Cuestas, J. C. The Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies // Journal of Common Market Studies. – 2013. – № 51(2). – Р. 232-245.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, F. Macroeconomics. – McGraw-Hill, International Editions, 1990.
  • Edwards, S. Does The Current Account Matter? // NBER Working Paper, 2001: w8275 38.
  • Freund, C. L. Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries // Board of Governers of the FED International Finance, Discussion Papers, 692, 2000.
  • Göçer, İ. Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenleri, Finansman Kalitesi ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz // Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. – 2013. – №8(1). – S. 213-242.
  • Husted, S. The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980 s: A Cointegration Analysis // The Review of Economics and Statistics. – 1992. – № 74(1). – P. 159-166.
  • Wu, J.L., Chen, S.L., Lee, H.Y. Are current account deficits sustainable? Evidence from panel cointegration // Economics Letters. – 2001. – № 72. – P. 219-224.
  • Mançellari, A., Xhepa, S. Sustainability of current account balance // Paper presented at the Conferrence organized by the Bank of Albania and Faculty of Economics, TU, Sarande, September 11-13, 2003.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin A. Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis // European Economic Review. – 1997. – № 42. – P. 897-908.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences // NBER Working Paper Series. – 1996. – No 5791. – P. 1-61.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits // NBER Working Paper,– 1996a. – No 5467.
  • Opoku-Afari, M. 2005. Capital Flows and Current Account Sustainability: The Ghanaian Experience // Research Papers at www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/credit/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10/03/2017).
  • Roubini, R., Watchel, P. Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies // NBER Working Paper Series, 1998. – Р. 1-72.
  • Sachs, J. The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1. – 1981. – Р. 201-268.
  • Chen, S. W. Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation // Economics Bulletin. – 2010. – № 30(2). – Р. 1474-1495.
  • Hudson, S., Stennett, R. Trade Liberalization and the Jamaican Economy: Prospects and Effects of Tariff Adjustments” // Research Papers Series, Bank of Jamaica, 2003.
  • Tarı, R. Ekonometri (5. Baskı). – Kocaeli: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, Türkiye, 2008.
  • Uygur, E. Cari Acık Tartışmaları”. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 2004. – № 19(222). – S. 5-20.
  • www.worldbank.org, (Erişim tarihi: 27.03.2017).
  • www.nbkr.kg, Kırgız Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası veri tabanı, (Erişim tarihi: 22.04.2017).

ПРОБЛЕМА ВНЕШНЕГО ДЕФИЦИТА В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ

Year 2018, Issue: 77, 18 - 26, 01.05.2018

Junus Ganiev , Damira Baigonushova

Abstract

Целью данной статьи является изучение проблемы внешнего дефицита в Кыргызстане, а также
причин дефицита текущего счета за 2000:1-2016:4 периода времени. Для достижения цели
использованы подход VAR-анализа и метод коинтеграции Йохансена. Согласно коинтеграционному
тесту Йохансена, нет никакой коинтеграции между сериями экспорта и импорта, поэтому, можно
сказать, что дефицит внешней торговли Кыргызстана не является устойчивым. В краткосрочной
перспективе дефицит текущего счета, который покрывается без каких-либо очень важных проблем с
помощью доходов мигрантов за рубежом, внешних долгов и прямых иностранных инвестиций, может
стать важной проблемой в долгосрочной перспективе. Для того чтобы избежать этого, потребуется
более активная и эффективная политика поддержки реальных секторов экономики, которые могут
конкурировать с остальным миром.

Keywords

внешний дефицит экспорт импорт устойчивость

References

  • Akmoldoev, K., Budaichieva, A. The Impact of Remittances in Kyrgyzstan Economy // Proceedings of International Conference on Eurasian Economies. – Almaty, 2012. – Р. 6-13.
  • Ansari, M. I., ve Ojemakinde A. Explaining Asymmetry in the US Merchandise and Service Account Balance: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the US Current Account Woes? // The International Trade Journal. – 2003. – № 17. – P. 51-80.
  • Aristovnik, A. Current account deficit sustainability in selected transition economies” // Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci. – 2006. – № 24(1). – Р. 81-102.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., Fountas, S. Current Account Deficit Sustainability: a Panel Approach // Journal of Economic Integration. – 2005. – № 20(3). – Р. 514-529.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Atabaev, N., Ganiyev, C. Kırgızistan’da Dış Ticaretin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri // Reforma. – 2014. – № 3(63). – Р. 12-17.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Pirimbayev, C. Kırgızistan’da Bütçe Açığı İle Dış Ticaret Açığı İlişkisi”, Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. – 2016. – № 5 (1). – S. 64-85.
  • Corden, W. M. Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System. – Oxford: Oxford University Press, and Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1994.
  • Cuestas, J. C. The Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies // Journal of Common Market Studies. – 2013. – № 51(2). – Р. 232-245.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, F. Macroeconomics. – McGraw-Hill, International Editions, 1990.
  • Edwards, S. Does The Current Account Matter? // NBER Working Paper, 2001: w8275 38.
  • Freund, C. L. Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries // Board of Governers of the FED International Finance, Discussion Papers, 692, 2000.
  • Göçer, İ. Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenleri, Finansman Kalitesi ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz // Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. – 2013. – №8(1). – S. 213-242.
  • Husted, S. The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980 s: A Cointegration Analysis // The Review of Economics and Statistics. – 1992. – № 74(1). – P. 159-166.
  • Wu, J.L., Chen, S.L., Lee, H.Y. Are current account deficits sustainable? Evidence from panel cointegration // Economics Letters. – 2001. – № 72. – P. 219-224.
  • Mançellari, A., Xhepa, S. Sustainability of current account balance // Paper presented at the Conferrence organized by the Bank of Albania and Faculty of Economics, TU, Sarande, September 11-13, 2003.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin A. Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis // European Economic Review. – 1997. – № 42. – P. 897-908.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences // NBER Working Paper Series. – 1996. – No 5791. – P. 1-61.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits // NBER Working Paper,– 1996a. – No 5467.
  • Opoku-Afari, M. 2005. Capital Flows and Current Account Sustainability: The Ghanaian Experience // Research Papers at www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/credit/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10/03/2017).
  • Roubini, R., Watchel, P. Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies // NBER Working Paper Series, 1998. – Р. 1-72.
  • Sachs, J. The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1. – 1981. – Р. 201-268.
  • Chen, S. W. Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation // Economics Bulletin. – 2010. – № 30(2). – Р. 1474-1495.
  • Hudson, S., Stennett, R. Trade Liberalization and the Jamaican Economy: Prospects and Effects of Tariff Adjustments” // Research Papers Series, Bank of Jamaica, 2003.
  • Tarı, R. Ekonometri (5. Baskı). – Kocaeli: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, Türkiye, 2008.
  • Uygur, E. Cari Acık Tartışmaları”. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 2004. – № 19(222). – S. 5-20.
  • www.worldbank.org, (Erişim tarihi: 27.03.2017).
  • www.nbkr.kg, Kırgız Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası veri tabanı, (Erişim tarihi: 22.04.2017).

KIRGIZİSTAN’DA DIŞ AÇIK SORUNU

Year 2018, Issue: 77, 18 - 26, 01.05.2018

Junus Ganiev , Damira Baigonushova

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the external deficit problem in Kyrgyzstan and also the causes
of the current account deficit for 2000:1-2016:4 time periods. VAR-analysis approach and the Johansen
cointegration methods have been used. According to the Johansen cointegration test results, there is no
cointegration between export and import series, which is why Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade deficit is not
sustainable. In the short term, the current account deficits, which are being carried out without any very
important problems with the help of remittances, foreign debts and foreign direct investments, may become
an important problem in the long run. To prevent this, there is a need for more active and more effective
policies in the country to support real sectors that can compete with the rest of the world.

Keywords

external deficit export import sustainability

References

  • Akmoldoev, K., Budaichieva, A. The Impact of Remittances in Kyrgyzstan Economy // Proceedings of International Conference on Eurasian Economies. – Almaty, 2012. – Р. 6-13.
  • Ansari, M. I., ve Ojemakinde A. Explaining Asymmetry in the US Merchandise and Service Account Balance: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the US Current Account Woes? // The International Trade Journal. – 2003. – № 17. – P. 51-80.
  • Aristovnik, A. Current account deficit sustainability in selected transition economies” // Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci. – 2006. – № 24(1). – Р. 81-102.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., Fountas, S. Current Account Deficit Sustainability: a Panel Approach // Journal of Economic Integration. – 2005. – № 20(3). – Р. 514-529.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Atabaev, N., Ganiyev, C. Kırgızistan’da Dış Ticaretin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri // Reforma. – 2014. – № 3(63). – Р. 12-17.
  • Baygonuşova, D., Pirimbayev, C. Kırgızistan’da Bütçe Açığı İle Dış Ticaret Açığı İlişkisi”, Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi. – 2016. – № 5 (1). – S. 64-85.
  • Corden, W. M. Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System. – Oxford: Oxford University Press, and Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1994.
  • Cuestas, J. C. The Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies // Journal of Common Market Studies. – 2013. – № 51(2). – Р. 232-245.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, F. Macroeconomics. – McGraw-Hill, International Editions, 1990.
  • Edwards, S. Does The Current Account Matter? // NBER Working Paper, 2001: w8275 38.
  • Freund, C. L. Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries // Board of Governers of the FED International Finance, Discussion Papers, 692, 2000.
  • Göçer, İ. Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenleri, Finansman Kalitesi ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz // Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. – 2013. – №8(1). – S. 213-242.
  • Husted, S. The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980 s: A Cointegration Analysis // The Review of Economics and Statistics. – 1992. – № 74(1). – P. 159-166.
  • Wu, J.L., Chen, S.L., Lee, H.Y. Are current account deficits sustainable? Evidence from panel cointegration // Economics Letters. – 2001. – № 72. – P. 219-224.
  • Mançellari, A., Xhepa, S. Sustainability of current account balance // Paper presented at the Conferrence organized by the Bank of Albania and Faculty of Economics, TU, Sarande, September 11-13, 2003.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin A. Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis // European Economic Review. – 1997. – № 42. – P. 897-908.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences // NBER Working Paper Series. – 1996. – No 5791. – P. 1-61.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A. Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits // NBER Working Paper,– 1996a. – No 5467.
  • Opoku-Afari, M. 2005. Capital Flows and Current Account Sustainability: The Ghanaian Experience // Research Papers at www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/credit/ (Erişim Tarihi: 10/03/2017).
  • Roubini, R., Watchel, P. Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies // NBER Working Paper Series, 1998. – Р. 1-72.
  • Sachs, J. The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1. – 1981. – Р. 201-268.
  • Chen, S. W. Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation // Economics Bulletin. – 2010. – № 30(2). – Р. 1474-1495.
  • Hudson, S., Stennett, R. Trade Liberalization and the Jamaican Economy: Prospects and Effects of Tariff Adjustments” // Research Papers Series, Bank of Jamaica, 2003.
  • Tarı, R. Ekonometri (5. Baskı). – Kocaeli: Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, Türkiye, 2008.
  • Uygur, E. Cari Acık Tartışmaları”. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans 2004. – № 19(222). – S. 5-20.
  • www.worldbank.org, (Erişim tarihi: 27.03.2017).
  • www.nbkr.kg, Kırgız Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası veri tabanı, (Erişim tarihi: 22.04.2017).
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Other ID JA45DB74EM
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Junus Ganiev

Damira Baigonushova This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2018
Submission Date May 1, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Issue: 77

Cite

APA Ganiev, J., & Baigonushova, D. (2018). KIRGIZİSTAN’DA DIŞ AÇIK SORUNU. Reforma, 1(77), 18-26.