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ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ РЕФОРМ НА БЛИЖНЕМ ВОСТОКЕ

Year 2014, Issue: 62, 7 - 16, 01.05.2014

Abstract

References

  • Addi, Lahouari.1996. "Algeria's Tragic Contradictions" Journal of Democracy 7, 3: 94-107.
  • Ahmad, Imad-ad-Dean.1996. “Islam, Market Economy and the Rule of Law” Paper presented in the Second International Symposium on Liberalism, Ankara, Turkey. 18-19,
  • Ayres, Ron. 1983. “Arms Production as a Form of Import-Substituting Industrialization: The Turkish Case” World Development 11:
  • Bennoune, Mahfoud. 1988. The Making of Contemporary Algeria, 1830-1987:Colonial Upheavals and Post- independence development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bianchi, Robert. 1984. Interest Groups and Political Development in Turkey, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Canevi, Yavuz, 1994. “Turkey” in The Political Economy of Policy Reform, ed. John Williamson. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
  • Chhibber, Pradeep K. 1996. "State Policy, Rent Seeking, and the Electoral Success of Religious Party in Algeria" Journal of Politics, 58: 126-48.
  • Haggard, Stephan and Steven B. Webb. 1994. “Introduction”, Voting For Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization, and Economic Adjustment. Edited by Stephan Haggard and Steven B. Webb. New York: Published for the World Bank, Washington, DC: Oxford University Press,)
  • Haggard, Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Howe, Marvine. 1997. “Secularists Won First Round Without Bloodshed, But Islamists Expect Victory in 1999 Election” The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.
  • Krueger, Anne O. 1993. Economic Policy Reform in Developing Countries. London: Blackwell.
  • Onis, Ziya and James Riedel.1993. Economic Crises and Long-Term Growth in Turkey. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
  • Ziya Onis and Steven B. Webb, “Political Economy of Policy Reform in Turkey in the 1980s.”
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996. “The Turkish Party System: Deinstitutionalization, Fragmentation and Polarzation.” Paper presented in Conference on Political Parties and Democracy, Washington, DC. November 18-19,
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996."Turkey: How Far from Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy 7.3
  • Pitcher, Brian L., Robert L. Hamlin, Jerry L. L. Miller. 1978. " The diffusion of Collective Violence", American Sociological Review, 43.1: 23-35.
  • Richards, Alan. and John Waterbury, 1996. A Political Economy of the Middle East. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
  • Roberts, Hugh. 1992. “The Algerian State and the Challenge of Democracy.” Government and Opposition 27: 433-454.
  • Roberts, Hugh.1994. "Doctrinaire Economics and Political Opportunism in the Strategy of Algerian Islamism," Islamism and Secularism in North Africa, John Ruedy ed. New York: St. Martin's Press,).
  • Rogowski, Ronald. 1989. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Salami, Ghassan. 1994. Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World. London: I.B. Taurus.
  • Sakallioglu, Umit Cizre. 1996.“Liberalism, democracy and the Turkish center-right: the identity crisis of the True Path Party” Middle Eastern Studies 32:
  • Sabri Sayari. 1996. “Political parties, party systems and economic reforms: the Turkish case.” Stud- ies in Comparative International Development 31:
  • Waldner, David. 1999. State Building and Late Development. Ithaca, N.Y. : Cornell University Press.
  • Waterbury, John.1992. “Export-Led Growth and Center-Right Coalition in Turkey”. Comparative Politics 24:
  • Waterbury, John. 1993. Exposed to Innumerable Delusions: Public Enterprises and State Power in Egypt, India, Mexico, Turkey. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • “What's the difference between Algeria and Turkey?” The Economist (US) March 18, 1995 v.334 n.7906 p.49 .
  • Zoubir, Yahia H. 1996. “Algerian Islamists' Conception of Democracy.” Arab Studies Quarterly 18, 3: p 65 (22).

POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Year 2014, Issue: 62, 7 - 16, 01.05.2014

Abstract

This article explores the political consequences of economic reforms, particularly the relationship between economic reforms, the behaviors of Islamic movements and implications for democratization. This study traces the twenty-year process from economic reforms caused by debt crisis during the 1980s to outcomes of violence or non-violence during the 1990s. Economic reforms change the interest structure of the society. If Islamic groups are included in the winning coalition need to carry out of reform, they often benefit from reforms. If Islamic groups are benefiting from reforms, they support liberal economic policies. If they are losing, they support statist policies that provide material benefits. Islamist movements radicalize when they face oppression if two conditions present. First, if the losers comprise the majority of Islamists, the radicals among them outweigh the moderates. Second, if Islamists are homogenous unprivileged groups in terms of their economic and social circumstances, they solve the collective action problem and turn violence. On the contrary, if they are diverse among the classes, ranging from bourgeoisie to workers, they cannot solve the collective action problems and stay moderate. I argue that Algerian Islamists fit the first category because they are mostly unemployed, educated urban youth, while Turkish Islamists can be found in all social classes including bourgeoisie. Therefore we get violence in Algeria but not in Turkey. I apply Mill’s method of agreement and method of difference to eliminate rival hypotheses and use process tracing to explain the stages of causal mechanism from debt crisis to the outcome of violence or non-violence

References

  • Addi, Lahouari.1996. "Algeria's Tragic Contradictions" Journal of Democracy 7, 3: 94-107.
  • Ahmad, Imad-ad-Dean.1996. “Islam, Market Economy and the Rule of Law” Paper presented in the Second International Symposium on Liberalism, Ankara, Turkey. 18-19,
  • Ayres, Ron. 1983. “Arms Production as a Form of Import-Substituting Industrialization: The Turkish Case” World Development 11:
  • Bennoune, Mahfoud. 1988. The Making of Contemporary Algeria, 1830-1987:Colonial Upheavals and Post- independence development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bianchi, Robert. 1984. Interest Groups and Political Development in Turkey, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Canevi, Yavuz, 1994. “Turkey” in The Political Economy of Policy Reform, ed. John Williamson. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
  • Chhibber, Pradeep K. 1996. "State Policy, Rent Seeking, and the Electoral Success of Religious Party in Algeria" Journal of Politics, 58: 126-48.
  • Haggard, Stephan and Steven B. Webb. 1994. “Introduction”, Voting For Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization, and Economic Adjustment. Edited by Stephan Haggard and Steven B. Webb. New York: Published for the World Bank, Washington, DC: Oxford University Press,)
  • Haggard, Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Howe, Marvine. 1997. “Secularists Won First Round Without Bloodshed, But Islamists Expect Victory in 1999 Election” The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.
  • Krueger, Anne O. 1993. Economic Policy Reform in Developing Countries. London: Blackwell.
  • Onis, Ziya and James Riedel.1993. Economic Crises and Long-Term Growth in Turkey. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
  • Ziya Onis and Steven B. Webb, “Political Economy of Policy Reform in Turkey in the 1980s.”
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996. “The Turkish Party System: Deinstitutionalization, Fragmentation and Polarzation.” Paper presented in Conference on Political Parties and Democracy, Washington, DC. November 18-19,
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996."Turkey: How Far from Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy 7.3
  • Pitcher, Brian L., Robert L. Hamlin, Jerry L. L. Miller. 1978. " The diffusion of Collective Violence", American Sociological Review, 43.1: 23-35.
  • Richards, Alan. and John Waterbury, 1996. A Political Economy of the Middle East. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
  • Roberts, Hugh. 1992. “The Algerian State and the Challenge of Democracy.” Government and Opposition 27: 433-454.
  • Roberts, Hugh.1994. "Doctrinaire Economics and Political Opportunism in the Strategy of Algerian Islamism," Islamism and Secularism in North Africa, John Ruedy ed. New York: St. Martin's Press,).
  • Rogowski, Ronald. 1989. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Salami, Ghassan. 1994. Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World. London: I.B. Taurus.
  • Sakallioglu, Umit Cizre. 1996.“Liberalism, democracy and the Turkish center-right: the identity crisis of the True Path Party” Middle Eastern Studies 32:
  • Sabri Sayari. 1996. “Political parties, party systems and economic reforms: the Turkish case.” Stud- ies in Comparative International Development 31:
  • Waldner, David. 1999. State Building and Late Development. Ithaca, N.Y. : Cornell University Press.
  • Waterbury, John.1992. “Export-Led Growth and Center-Right Coalition in Turkey”. Comparative Politics 24:
  • Waterbury, John. 1993. Exposed to Innumerable Delusions: Public Enterprises and State Power in Egypt, India, Mexico, Turkey. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • “What's the difference between Algeria and Turkey?” The Economist (US) March 18, 1995 v.334 n.7906 p.49 .
  • Zoubir, Yahia H. 1996. “Algerian Islamists' Conception of Democracy.” Arab Studies Quarterly 18, 3: p 65 (22).

POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Year 2014, Issue: 62, 7 - 16, 01.05.2014

Abstract

This article explores the political consequences of economic reforms, particularly the relationship
between economic reforms, the behaviors of Islamic movements and implications for democratization.
This study traces the twenty-year process from economic reforms caused by debt crisis during the
1980s to outcomes of violence or non-violence during the 1990s. Economic reforms change the interest structure of the society. If Islamic groups are included in the winning coalition need to carry out of
reform, they often benefit from reforms. If Islamic groups are benefiting from reforms, they support
liberal economic policies. If they are losing, they support statist policies that provide material benefits.
Islamist movements radicalize when they face oppression if two conditions present. First, if the losers
comprise the majority of Islamists, the radicals among them outweigh the moderates. Second, if Islamists are homogenous unprivileged groups in terms of their economic and social circumstances, they
solve the collective action problem and turn violence. On the contrary, if they are diverse among the
classes, ranging from bourgeoisie to workers, they cannot solve the collective action problems and stay
moderate. I argue that Algerian Islamists fit the first category because they are mostly unemployed, educated urban youth, while Turkish Islamists can be found in all social classes including bourgeoisie.
Therefore we get violence in Algeria but not in Turkey. I apply Mill’s method of agreement and method
of difference to eliminate rival hypotheses and use process tracing to explain the stages of causal mechanism from debt crisis to the outcome of violence or non-violence

References

  • Addi, Lahouari.1996. "Algeria's Tragic Contradictions" Journal of Democracy 7, 3: 94-107.
  • Ahmad, Imad-ad-Dean.1996. “Islam, Market Economy and the Rule of Law” Paper presented in the Second International Symposium on Liberalism, Ankara, Turkey. 18-19,
  • Ayres, Ron. 1983. “Arms Production as a Form of Import-Substituting Industrialization: The Turkish Case” World Development 11:
  • Bennoune, Mahfoud. 1988. The Making of Contemporary Algeria, 1830-1987:Colonial Upheavals and Post- independence development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bianchi, Robert. 1984. Interest Groups and Political Development in Turkey, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Canevi, Yavuz, 1994. “Turkey” in The Political Economy of Policy Reform, ed. John Williamson. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
  • Chhibber, Pradeep K. 1996. "State Policy, Rent Seeking, and the Electoral Success of Religious Party in Algeria" Journal of Politics, 58: 126-48.
  • Haggard, Stephan and Steven B. Webb. 1994. “Introduction”, Voting For Reform: Democracy, Political Liberalization, and Economic Adjustment. Edited by Stephan Haggard and Steven B. Webb. New York: Published for the World Bank, Washington, DC: Oxford University Press,)
  • Haggard, Stephan, and Robert R. Kaufman. 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • Howe, Marvine. 1997. “Secularists Won First Round Without Bloodshed, But Islamists Expect Victory in 1999 Election” The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs.
  • Krueger, Anne O. 1993. Economic Policy Reform in Developing Countries. London: Blackwell.
  • Onis, Ziya and James Riedel.1993. Economic Crises and Long-Term Growth in Turkey. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
  • Ziya Onis and Steven B. Webb, “Political Economy of Policy Reform in Turkey in the 1980s.”
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996. “The Turkish Party System: Deinstitutionalization, Fragmentation and Polarzation.” Paper presented in Conference on Political Parties and Democracy, Washington, DC. November 18-19,
  • Özbudun, Ergun. 1996."Turkey: How Far from Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy 7.3
  • Pitcher, Brian L., Robert L. Hamlin, Jerry L. L. Miller. 1978. " The diffusion of Collective Violence", American Sociological Review, 43.1: 23-35.
  • Richards, Alan. and John Waterbury, 1996. A Political Economy of the Middle East. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
  • Roberts, Hugh. 1992. “The Algerian State and the Challenge of Democracy.” Government and Opposition 27: 433-454.
  • Roberts, Hugh.1994. "Doctrinaire Economics and Political Opportunism in the Strategy of Algerian Islamism," Islamism and Secularism in North Africa, John Ruedy ed. New York: St. Martin's Press,).
  • Rogowski, Ronald. 1989. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Salami, Ghassan. 1994. Democracy Without Democrats? The Renewal of Politics in the Muslim World. London: I.B. Taurus.
  • Sakallioglu, Umit Cizre. 1996.“Liberalism, democracy and the Turkish center-right: the identity crisis of the True Path Party” Middle Eastern Studies 32:
  • Sabri Sayari. 1996. “Political parties, party systems and economic reforms: the Turkish case.” Stud- ies in Comparative International Development 31:
  • Waldner, David. 1999. State Building and Late Development. Ithaca, N.Y. : Cornell University Press.
  • Waterbury, John.1992. “Export-Led Growth and Center-Right Coalition in Turkey”. Comparative Politics 24:
  • Waterbury, John. 1993. Exposed to Innumerable Delusions: Public Enterprises and State Power in Egypt, India, Mexico, Turkey. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • “What's the difference between Algeria and Turkey?” The Economist (US) March 18, 1995 v.334 n.7906 p.49 .
  • Zoubir, Yahia H. 1996. “Algerian Islamists' Conception of Democracy.” Arab Studies Quarterly 18, 3: p 65 (22).
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Political Science
Other ID JA52GY67YE
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

S. A. Avcu This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2014
Submission Date May 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Issue: 62

Cite

APA Avcu, S. A. (2014). POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. Reforma, 2(62), 7-16.