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A Brief Review of Vulnerability, Preparedness and Resilience Measures of Anticipated Istanbul Earthquake

Year 2024, , 113 - 122, 28.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1447700

Abstract

This review examines the seismic vulnerability of Istanbul, a city uniquely positioned at the crossroads of Asia and Europe and exposed to significant earthquake risks due to the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). By synthesizing data on historical seismic events, urban development patterns, and current building and infrastructure resilience, the paper highlights the complexities of disaster management in a densely populated and rapidly growing metropolis. It critically evaluates the effectiveness of existing preparedness and mitigation strategies, including legislative frameworks, urban planning policies, and community-based resilience efforts. The review also identifies gaps in the current approach to earthquake risk reduction and suggests areas for improvement, emphasizing the need for an integrated, multi-sectoral approach to enhance the city's capacity to withstand and recover from future seismic events. The findings underscore the importance of proactive planning and the adoption of innovative technologies in building a resilient Istanbul.

References

  • Adıkutlu, S. (2019). Resilience to disasters: lessons from Turkish urban regeneration experiences. https://open.metu.edu.tr/handle/11511/27933
  • AFAD. (2020). Istanbul Province Disaster Mitigation Plan. https://istanbul.afad.gov.tr/kurumlar/istanbul.afad/PDF-Dosyalar/irap_istanbul.pdf
  • Ay, D., & Demires Ozkul, B. (2021). The strange case of earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul. City, 25(1–2), 67–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2021.1885917
  • Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). (2019). Public Health Preparedness Capabilities: National Standards for State and Local Planning | State and Local Readiness. https://www.cdc.gov/orr/readiness/capabilities/index.htm
  • de Oliveira, W. K., Rohlfs, D. B., & Garcia, L. P. (2019). O desastre de Brumadinho e a atuação da Vigilância em Saúde. Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde, 28(1), e20190425. https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742019000100025
  • Erdikt, M., Aydinoglu, N., Fahjan, Y., Sesetyan, K., Demircioglu, M., Siyahi, B., Durukal, E., Ozbey, C., Biro, Y., Akman, H., & Yuzugullu, O. (2003). Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area. 2(1).
  • Erenoglu, C. R., & Erenoglu, O. (2015). Earthquake strategy for sustainable infrastructure in Turkey. 167(5), 216–227. https://doi.org/10.1680/ENSU.13.00022
  • Eris, M. B., Alparslan, C., Karadayi, M. A., Alkan, A., Demirel, D. F., & Eylul Damla Gonul-Sezer, E. D. G. (2023). Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, 22, 364–376. https://doi.org/10.55549/EPSTEM.1351022
  • Eurocities. (n.d.). Istanbul - Eurocities Statistics. Retrieved 8 January 2024, from https://eurocities.eu/cities/istanbul/
  • U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (1993). Disaster Management: Improving the Nation’s Response to Catastrophic Disasters. https://www.gao.gov/products/rced-93-186
  • Garrido, J., & Saunders, W. S. A. (2019). Disaster Risk Reduction and Land Use Planning: Opportunities to Improve Practice. IAEG/AEG Annual Meeting Proceedings, San Francisco, California, 2018 - Volume 5, 161–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93136-4_20
  • Global Disaster Preparedness Center (GDPC). (2023). The Future of Volunteers in Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response. https://preparecenter.org/resource/report-the-future-of-volunteers-in-disaster-preparedness-and-emergency-response-2/
  • Gul, M., Fuat Guneri, A., & Gunal, M. M. (2020). Emergency department network under disaster conditions: The case of possible major Istanbul earthquake. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 71(5), 733–747. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1582588
  • Hussain, E., Kalaycıoğlu, S., Milliner, C. W. D., & Çakir, Z. (2023). Preconditioning the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake disaster. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 2023 4:5, 4(5), 287–289. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00411-2
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2009). PRODUCTION OF MICROZONATION MAPS AND REPORTS OF ANATOLIAN SIDE. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Documents/Asian_microzonation%20prj_summary.pdf
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2018). Istanbul Urban Transportation Master Plan Feasibility Report. https://miyamotointernational.com/istanbul-urban-transportation-master-plan-feasibility-studies/
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2021). Management plan for the debris that may occur in a possible devastating Istanbul earthquake. https://8luvomezzzsk.merlincdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ENKAZ-YONETIM-PLANI-RAPOR.pdf
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) & Boğaziçi University (BOUN). (2021). Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System. Retrieved 9 January 2024, from https://8luvomezzzsk.merlincdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IERREWS-Rapor.pdf
  • Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) & Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2002). The Study on A Disaster Prevention / Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul including Seismic Micronization in the Republic of Turkey Final Report. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Publishingimages/JICA_ENG.pdf
  • Jillson, I. A., Clarke, M., Allen, C., Waller, S., Koehlmoos, T., Mumford, W., Jansen, J., McKay, K., & Trant, A. (2019). Improving the science and evidence base of disaster response: A policy research study. BMC Health Services Research, 19(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1186/S12913-019-4102-5/FIGURES/1
  • Kako, M., Takada, Y., Arbon, P., Steenkamp, M., Ryan, B. J., Morino, K., Wang, C. P., Shah, R., Malik, S., Portelli, I., Goldfrank, L. R., Smith, S. W., & Ronald, O. (2017). Discovering Best Practice for the Implementation of Evacuation Centers for Vulnerable Populations: Findings from a Japanese Pilot Study. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 32(S1), S125–S125. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17003533
  • Kayaalp, E., & Arslan, O. (2022). Earth in practice: Uncertainty, expertise and the expected Istanbul earthquake. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 5(3), 1579–1596. https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486211022451
  • Kozacl, Ö., & Altunel, E. (2022). Characteristics of the North Anatolian Fault at the eastern end of Marmara seismic gap based on multidisciplinary field evidence. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1785–1803. https://doi.org/10.1093/GJI/GGAC022
  • Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J. Y., Henry, P., Çakir, Z., Petersen, F., Sakic, P., Ballu, V., Bialas, J., Özeren, M. S., Ergintav, S., & Géli, L. (2019). Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul. Nature Communications 2019 10:1, 10(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11016-z
  • McHugh, C. M. G., Seeber, L., Cormier, M. H., & Hornbach, M. (2014). Submarine paleoseismology along populated transform boundaries: The Enriquillo-Plantain-Garden fault, Canal du Sud, Haiti, and the North Anatolian fault, Marmara Sea, Turkey. Oceanography, 27(2), 118–131. https://doi.org/10.5670/OCEANOG.2014.47
  • Parsons, T. (2004). Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(B5), 5304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667
  • Tan, O., Karagöz, Ö., Ergintav, S., & Duran, K. (2022). The neglected Istanbul earthquakes in the North Anatolian Shear Zone: tectonic implications and broad-band ground motion simulations for a future moderate event. Geophysical Journal International, 233(1), 700–723. https://doi.org/10.1093/GJI/GGAC477
  • Trovato, M. R., Tunc, A., Sezgin, E., & Yomralioglu, T. (2022). The Development of a Holistic and Inclusive Model for Disaster Priority Regeneration Area (DPRA): The Case of Istanbul, Turkey. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122150 Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TUIK). (n.d.).
  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (n.d.). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Retrieved 9 January 2024, from https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework
  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2023). Good Practices in Disaster Risk Reduction: Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. https://www.undrr.org/publication/good-practices-disaster-risk-reduction-midterm-review-implementation-sendai-framework
  • Varum, H. S. A. (2003). Seismic assessment, strengthening and repair of existing buildings - ProQuest. https://www.proquest.com/docview/2008130206?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Dissertations%20&%20Theses
  • Waite, I. A. (2016). Planning, Power, Politics: Urban Redevelopment in Istanbul - ProQuest [University of California]. https://www.proquest.com/docview/1834049651?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Dissertations%20&%20Theses
  • Westen, C. van, Atun, F., Cocuccioni, S., Hurlimann, M., Koelle, B., Marr, P., Armas, I., Kundak, S., Dalfsen, E. de Z., Homberg, M. van den, & Hall, J. (2023). Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters. EGU23. https://doi.org/10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-5815
  • Zhang, Z., You, J., Li, Q., & Du, X. (2012). Research Framework for Emergency Rescue of Disasters and Crises. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2(3), 173–177. https://doi.org/10.2991/JRARC.2012.2.3.3
  • Anbarci, N., Escaleras, M., & Register, C. A. (2005). Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy. Journal of Public Economics, 89(9–10), 1907–1933. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPUBECO.2004.08.002
  • TURKSTAT. Retrieved 8 January 2024, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=International-Migration-Statistics-2022-49457&dil=2

Beklenen İstanbul Depreminin Hasar Görebilirlik, Hazırlıklılık ve Afet Direnci Açısından Kısa Bir Derlemesi

Year 2024, , 113 - 122, 28.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1447700

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Asya ve Avrupa kıtalarının kesiştiği noktada yer alan ve Kuzey Anadolu Fayı (KAF) nedeniyle önemli deprem riskleriyle karşı karşıya bulunan İstanbul'un sismik kırılganlığını incelemektedir. Tarihsel sismik olaylar, kentsel gelişim modelleri ve mevcut bina ile altyapı direncine ilişkin verilerin sentezlendiği bu derleme, yoğun nüfuslu ve hızlı büyüyen bir metropolde afet yönetiminin karmaşıklıklarını ortaya koymaktadır. Yasal çerçeveler, kentsel planlama politikaları ve topluluk bazlı direnç girişimleri dahil olmak üzere, mevcut hazırlık ve zarar azaltma stratejilerinin etkinliği kritik bir şekilde değerlendirilmektedir. Bu inceleme, deprem riskini azaltma konusundaki mevcut yaklaşımlardaki eksiklikleri belirlemekte ve şehrin gelecekteki sismik etkinliklere karşı dayanıklılığını ve toparlanma kapasitesini artırmak için entegre, çok sektörlü bir yaklaşımın gerekliliğini vurgulayarak iyileştirme önerileri sunmaktadır. Bulgular, İstanbul'u dirençli hale getirmede proaktif planlamanın ve yenilikçi teknolojilerin benimsenmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

References

  • Adıkutlu, S. (2019). Resilience to disasters: lessons from Turkish urban regeneration experiences. https://open.metu.edu.tr/handle/11511/27933
  • AFAD. (2020). Istanbul Province Disaster Mitigation Plan. https://istanbul.afad.gov.tr/kurumlar/istanbul.afad/PDF-Dosyalar/irap_istanbul.pdf
  • Ay, D., & Demires Ozkul, B. (2021). The strange case of earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul. City, 25(1–2), 67–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/13604813.2021.1885917
  • Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). (2019). Public Health Preparedness Capabilities: National Standards for State and Local Planning | State and Local Readiness. https://www.cdc.gov/orr/readiness/capabilities/index.htm
  • de Oliveira, W. K., Rohlfs, D. B., & Garcia, L. P. (2019). O desastre de Brumadinho e a atuação da Vigilância em Saúde. Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde, 28(1), e20190425. https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742019000100025
  • Erdikt, M., Aydinoglu, N., Fahjan, Y., Sesetyan, K., Demircioglu, M., Siyahi, B., Durukal, E., Ozbey, C., Biro, Y., Akman, H., & Yuzugullu, O. (2003). Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area. 2(1).
  • Erenoglu, C. R., & Erenoglu, O. (2015). Earthquake strategy for sustainable infrastructure in Turkey. 167(5), 216–227. https://doi.org/10.1680/ENSU.13.00022
  • Eris, M. B., Alparslan, C., Karadayi, M. A., Alkan, A., Demirel, D. F., & Eylul Damla Gonul-Sezer, E. D. G. (2023). Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, 22, 364–376. https://doi.org/10.55549/EPSTEM.1351022
  • Eurocities. (n.d.). Istanbul - Eurocities Statistics. Retrieved 8 January 2024, from https://eurocities.eu/cities/istanbul/
  • U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (1993). Disaster Management: Improving the Nation’s Response to Catastrophic Disasters. https://www.gao.gov/products/rced-93-186
  • Garrido, J., & Saunders, W. S. A. (2019). Disaster Risk Reduction and Land Use Planning: Opportunities to Improve Practice. IAEG/AEG Annual Meeting Proceedings, San Francisco, California, 2018 - Volume 5, 161–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93136-4_20
  • Global Disaster Preparedness Center (GDPC). (2023). The Future of Volunteers in Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response. https://preparecenter.org/resource/report-the-future-of-volunteers-in-disaster-preparedness-and-emergency-response-2/
  • Gul, M., Fuat Guneri, A., & Gunal, M. M. (2020). Emergency department network under disaster conditions: The case of possible major Istanbul earthquake. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 71(5), 733–747. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2019.1582588
  • Hussain, E., Kalaycıoğlu, S., Milliner, C. W. D., & Çakir, Z. (2023). Preconditioning the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake disaster. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 2023 4:5, 4(5), 287–289. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00411-2
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2009). PRODUCTION OF MICROZONATION MAPS AND REPORTS OF ANATOLIAN SIDE. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Documents/Asian_microzonation%20prj_summary.pdf
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2018). Istanbul Urban Transportation Master Plan Feasibility Report. https://miyamotointernational.com/istanbul-urban-transportation-master-plan-feasibility-studies/
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2021). Management plan for the debris that may occur in a possible devastating Istanbul earthquake. https://8luvomezzzsk.merlincdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ENKAZ-YONETIM-PLANI-RAPOR.pdf
  • Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) & Boğaziçi University (BOUN). (2021). Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System. Retrieved 9 January 2024, from https://8luvomezzzsk.merlincdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IERREWS-Rapor.pdf
  • Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) & Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). (2002). The Study on A Disaster Prevention / Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul including Seismic Micronization in the Republic of Turkey Final Report. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Publishingimages/JICA_ENG.pdf
  • Jillson, I. A., Clarke, M., Allen, C., Waller, S., Koehlmoos, T., Mumford, W., Jansen, J., McKay, K., & Trant, A. (2019). Improving the science and evidence base of disaster response: A policy research study. BMC Health Services Research, 19(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1186/S12913-019-4102-5/FIGURES/1
  • Kako, M., Takada, Y., Arbon, P., Steenkamp, M., Ryan, B. J., Morino, K., Wang, C. P., Shah, R., Malik, S., Portelli, I., Goldfrank, L. R., Smith, S. W., & Ronald, O. (2017). Discovering Best Practice for the Implementation of Evacuation Centers for Vulnerable Populations: Findings from a Japanese Pilot Study. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 32(S1), S125–S125. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X17003533
  • Kayaalp, E., & Arslan, O. (2022). Earth in practice: Uncertainty, expertise and the expected Istanbul earthquake. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, 5(3), 1579–1596. https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486211022451
  • Kozacl, Ö., & Altunel, E. (2022). Characteristics of the North Anatolian Fault at the eastern end of Marmara seismic gap based on multidisciplinary field evidence. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1785–1803. https://doi.org/10.1093/GJI/GGAC022
  • Lange, D., Kopp, H., Royer, J. Y., Henry, P., Çakir, Z., Petersen, F., Sakic, P., Ballu, V., Bialas, J., Özeren, M. S., Ergintav, S., & Géli, L. (2019). Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul. Nature Communications 2019 10:1, 10(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11016-z
  • McHugh, C. M. G., Seeber, L., Cormier, M. H., & Hornbach, M. (2014). Submarine paleoseismology along populated transform boundaries: The Enriquillo-Plantain-Garden fault, Canal du Sud, Haiti, and the North Anatolian fault, Marmara Sea, Turkey. Oceanography, 27(2), 118–131. https://doi.org/10.5670/OCEANOG.2014.47
  • Parsons, T. (2004). Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(B5), 5304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667
  • Tan, O., Karagöz, Ö., Ergintav, S., & Duran, K. (2022). The neglected Istanbul earthquakes in the North Anatolian Shear Zone: tectonic implications and broad-band ground motion simulations for a future moderate event. Geophysical Journal International, 233(1), 700–723. https://doi.org/10.1093/GJI/GGAC477
  • Trovato, M. R., Tunc, A., Sezgin, E., & Yomralioglu, T. (2022). The Development of a Holistic and Inclusive Model for Disaster Priority Regeneration Area (DPRA): The Case of Istanbul, Turkey. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122150 Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TUIK). (n.d.).
  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (n.d.). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Retrieved 9 January 2024, from https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sendai-framework
  • United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2023). Good Practices in Disaster Risk Reduction: Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. https://www.undrr.org/publication/good-practices-disaster-risk-reduction-midterm-review-implementation-sendai-framework
  • Varum, H. S. A. (2003). Seismic assessment, strengthening and repair of existing buildings - ProQuest. https://www.proquest.com/docview/2008130206?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Dissertations%20&%20Theses
  • Waite, I. A. (2016). Planning, Power, Politics: Urban Redevelopment in Istanbul - ProQuest [University of California]. https://www.proquest.com/docview/1834049651?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true&sourcetype=Dissertations%20&%20Theses
  • Westen, C. van, Atun, F., Cocuccioni, S., Hurlimann, M., Koelle, B., Marr, P., Armas, I., Kundak, S., Dalfsen, E. de Z., Homberg, M. van den, & Hall, J. (2023). Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters. EGU23. https://doi.org/10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-5815
  • Zhang, Z., You, J., Li, Q., & Du, X. (2012). Research Framework for Emergency Rescue of Disasters and Crises. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2(3), 173–177. https://doi.org/10.2991/JRARC.2012.2.3.3
  • Anbarci, N., Escaleras, M., & Register, C. A. (2005). Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy. Journal of Public Economics, 89(9–10), 1907–1933. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPUBECO.2004.08.002
  • TURKSTAT. Retrieved 8 January 2024, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=International-Migration-Statistics-2022-49457&dil=2
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Disaster and Emergency Management
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ömer Faruk Sönmez 0000-0002-6663-4941

Publication Date June 28, 2024
Submission Date March 5, 2024
Acceptance Date May 15, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Sönmez, Ö. F. (2024). A Brief Review of Vulnerability, Preparedness and Resilience Measures of Anticipated Istanbul Earthquake. Resilience, 8(1), 113-122. https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1447700