Evaluation of Sea Level Change in Antalya Station II

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 281 - 294, 31.12.2021

Halid Akdemir

https://doi.org/10.32569/resilience.1018340

Abstract

Antalya, Turkey, coasts are very sensitive to external dynamics so there is a need to explain the sea level change process on the shores of Antalya more closely. In line with this purpose, the sea level change on the Antalya coast has been examined and evaluated monthly and annually with a statistical and analytical approach in this study. Accordingly, the correlations of some indexes such as Southern Oscillation (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (NINO 3.4), and the parameters of arctic ice melt, Antalya air temperature, global air temperature, global ocean temperature, Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) with the sea level change at Antalya Station II were examined to clarify the problem. The correlation study with the indexes revealed that there is no significant relationship between the indexes and the sea level change at Antalya Station II. Among the studied variables, the arctic ice melt, and the Antalya air temperature have relatively high correlation coefficients of 0.6959 and 0.6412 respectively in the monthly analysis. The Mediterranean SST seems to have the highest correlation with the sea level change with a correlation value of 0.93 in the annual analysis. Accordingly, analytical research was carried out to examine the correlation of the change of the sea level with the parameters that are thought to be the cause. Three effective parameters are identified and examined as the cause of sea level change observed at Antalya Station II, which are Mediterranean Sea temperature, ice melt, and other factors such as erosion. The result of this analytical study shows that the contribution to sea level change at Antalya Station II is mostly related to the temperature increase with a contribution of 82%, to ice melt with a contribution of 14%, and the other factors such as erosion with a contribution of 4%.

Keywords

Sea Level Change, Antalya Station, Mediterranean Sea, Temperature Change, Ice Melt.

Supporting Institution

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Project Number

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Thanks

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Antalya İstasyonu II Deniz Seviyesi Değişiminin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Antalya, Türkiye kıyıları dış dinamiklere çok duyarlı olduğundan dolayı Antalya kıyılarındaki deniz seviyesi değişim sürecini daha yakından açıklamaya ihtiyaç vardır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bu çalışmada Antalya kıyılarındaki deniz seviyesi değişimi istatistiksel ve analitik bir yaklaşımla aylık ve yıllık olarak incelenmiş ve değerlendirilmiştir. Buna göre Güney Salınımı (SOI), Arktik Salınımı (AO), Antarktika Salınımı (AAO), Kuzey Atlantik Salınımı (NAO), El Nino Güney Salınımı (NINO 3.4) gibi bazı endekslerin korelasyonları ve arktik buz erimesi, Antalya hava sıcaklığı, küresel hava sıcaklığı, küresel okyanus sıcaklığı, Akdeniz denizi yüzey sıcaklığı (SST) gibi parametreler Antalya İstasyonu II’nin deniz seviyesi değişimi sorununa açıklık getirmek amacıyla incelenmiştir. Endekslerle yapılan korelasyon çalışması, Antalya İstasyonu II’deki deniz seviyesi değişimi ile endeksler arasında anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. Çalışılan değişkenlerden arktik buzullarının erimesi ve Antalya hava sıcaklığı aylık bazda yapılan çalışmada sırasıyla 0.6959 ve 0.6412 korelasyon değerleri gibi nispeten yüksek korelasyon değerlerine sahiptir. Akdeniz denizi yüzey sıcaklığı yıllık bazda yapılan çalışmada ise 0.93 korelasyon değeri ile deniz seviyesi değişimi ile en yüksek korelasyona sahip görünmektedir. Ek olarak ve korelasyon çalışmasının da katkısıyla, deniz seviyesindeki değişimin neden olduğu düşünülen parametrelerle ilişkisini incelemek için analitik bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Antalya İstasyonu II’de gözlenen deniz seviyesi değişiminin nedeni olarak Akdeniz denizi sıcaklığı, buzulların erimesi ve erozyon gibi diğer faktörler olmak üzere üç etkili parametre belirlenmiş ve incelenmiştir. Bu analitik çalışma, Antalya İstasyonu II’de deniz seviyesinin değişimine katkının en çok %82 ile deniz sıcaklığı artışı, %14 ile buzulların erimesi ve %4 ile erozyon gibi diğer faktörlerle ilişkili olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

Deniz Seviyesi Değişimi, Antalya İstasyonu, Akdeniz, Sıcaklık Değişimi, Buzul Erimesi.

Project Number

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