THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN INVESTIGATION ON IRAQI ECONOMY
Abstract
Iraq is one of the leading oil exporting countries. In general, the national income of the country depends on crude oil. Oil revenues in Iraq cover 90 percent of the Iraqi government's budget. The rising crude oil price may affect the economic growth in Iraq. On the other hand, it is very important to use another resource instead of oil revenues as a new strategy for national income.
The main purpose of this study is to examine the effects of oil price and oil production value on economic growth in Iraq. For this purpose, annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient for the period between 1995-2017 were used. According to the results of the analysis, it was found that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP for Iraqi economy.
Keywords
References
- Chalabi, I. (2005). Oil Industry and Oil Policy in Iraq. Beirut: Proceedings of the Symposium of the Center for Arab Unity Studies on the Future of Iraq.
- Demiral, M.,Bal, H.,Akça.E.E., (2016), “Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi’’, Sosyoekonomi, (24) 27, 85-102.
- EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, (2019), [Available Online at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37973]: Retrieved on January 16, 2019.
- Gronwald, M., Mayr, J., & Orazbayev, S. (2009). Estimating the effects of oil price shockson the Kazakh economy (No. 81). Ifo Working Paper.1-16.
- He, Y., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 32(4), 868-876.
- Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
- Kilian, L. (2007). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053-69.
- Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy policy, 34(18), 3910-3915.
- Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855.
- Lienert, I. (1981). The Macroeconomic Effects of the 1979/80 Oil Price Rise on Four Nordic Economies. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 201-219.