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THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN INVESTIGATION ON IRAQI ECONOMY

Year 2019, , 273 - 285, 31.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.580739

Abstract

Iraq is one of the leading oil exporting countries.
In general, the national income of the country depends on crude oil. Oil
revenues in Iraq cover 90 percent of the Iraqi government's budget. The rising
crude oil price may affect the economic growth in Iraq. On the other hand, it
is very important to use another resource instead of oil revenues as a new strategy
for national income.



The main purpose of this study is to examine the
effects of oil price and oil production value on economic growth in Iraq. For
this purpose, annual growth rate, compound growth rate and correlation coefficient
for the period between 1995-2017 were used. According to the results of the
analysis, it was found that there is a statistically significant positive
relationship between oil price and GDP, oil production value and GDP for Iraqi
economy.

References

  • Chalabi, I. (2005). Oil Industry and Oil Policy in Iraq. Beirut: Proceedings of the Symposium of the Center for Arab Unity Studies on the Future of Iraq.
  • Demiral, M.,Bal, H.,Akça.E.E., (2016), “Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi’’, Sosyoekonomi, (24) 27, 85-102.
  • EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, (2019), [Available Online at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37973]: Retrieved on January 16, 2019.
  • Gronwald, M., Mayr, J., & Orazbayev, S. (2009). Estimating the effects of oil price shockson the Kazakh economy (No. 81). Ifo Working Paper.1-16.
  • He, Y., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 32(4), 868-876.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
  • Kilian, L. (2007). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053-69.
  • Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy policy, 34(18), 3910-3915.
  • Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855.
  • Lienert, I. (1981). The Macroeconomic Effects of the 1979/80 Oil Price Rise on Four Nordic Economies. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 201-219.
  • Masih, A. M., & Masih, R. (1997). On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(4), 417-440.
  • Nwanna, I. (2015). Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2014). IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 10-19.
  • OPEC. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. (2018). Annual Statistical Bulletin, [Available Online at: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2018.pdf]: Retrieved on June 05, 2018.
  • OECD. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,(2019), Crude Oil Production Data, [Available Online at: https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm]: Retrieved on January 24, 2019.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Rotemberg, J. J., & Woodford, M. (1996). Imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity. National Bureau of Economic Research Papers. (No. w5634).
  • Salman, A. A., Ghali, K. H., & Shammari, N. A. (2008). Oil-price effects on the real business cycle: evidence from the G-7 countries. European Journal of Economics Finance Administrative Sciences. 14, 74-83.
  • Shelley, T. (2005). Oil: politics, poverty and the planet. Barlin: Zed Books.London.
  • World Bank. (2018). The World Bank In Iraq, [Available Online at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iraq/overview] , Retrieved on June 14, 2018.
  • Yardimcioğlu, F ve Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol fiyatları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik bir analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19).119-140.
  • Yoon, J. H. (2004, August). Oil and the G7 business cycle: Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching Approach. In Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings.

Petrol Fiyatının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Irak Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Year 2019, , 273 - 285, 31.07.2019
https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.580739

Abstract

Irak, önde gelen petrol
ihraç eden ülkelerden biridir. Genel olarak ülkenin milli geliri ham petrollere
bağlıdır. Irak'taki petrol gelirleri, Irak hükümetinin bütçesinin yüzde 90'ını
kapsamaktadır. Artan ham petrol fiyatı Irak'taki ekonomik büyümeyi
etkileyebilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, milli gelir elde etmek için yeni bir
strateji olarak petrol gelirleri yerine başka bir kaynak kullanılması önemli
bir gereklilik olarak ön plana çıkmaya başlamıştır.

Bu
çalışmanın temel amacı Irak’ta petrol fiyatının ve petrol üretim değerinin
ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1995-2017 yılları
arası döneme ait yıllık büyüme oranı, bileşik büyüme oranı ve korelasyon
katsayısı kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Irak ekonomisi için petrol
fiyatı ile GSYİH, petrol üretim değeri ve GSYİH arasında istatistiksel olarak
anlamlı bir pozitif ilişki olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

References

  • Chalabi, I. (2005). Oil Industry and Oil Policy in Iraq. Beirut: Proceedings of the Symposium of the Center for Arab Unity Studies on the Future of Iraq.
  • Demiral, M.,Bal, H.,Akça.E.E., (2016), “Petrol Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Seçilmiş Petrol Zengini Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi’’, Sosyoekonomi, (24) 27, 85-102.
  • EIA. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, (2019), [Available Online at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37973]: Retrieved on January 16, 2019.
  • Gronwald, M., Mayr, J., & Orazbayev, S. (2009). Estimating the effects of oil price shockson the Kazakh economy (No. 81). Ifo Working Paper.1-16.
  • He, Y., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 32(4), 868-876.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
  • Kilian, L. (2007). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic Review, 99(3), 1053-69.
  • Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy policy, 34(18), 3910-3915.
  • Lardic, S., & Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855.
  • Lienert, I. (1981). The Macroeconomic Effects of the 1979/80 Oil Price Rise on Four Nordic Economies. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 201-219.
  • Masih, A. M., & Masih, R. (1997). On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach. Journal of Policy Modeling, 19(4), 417-440.
  • Nwanna, I. (2015). Impact of Crude Oil Price Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2014). IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 10-19.
  • OPEC. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. (2018). Annual Statistical Bulletin, [Available Online at: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2018.pdf]: Retrieved on June 05, 2018.
  • OECD. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,(2019), Crude Oil Production Data, [Available Online at: https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm]: Retrieved on January 24, 2019.
  • Prasad, A., Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, J. (2007). Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands. Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.
  • Rotemberg, J. J., & Woodford, M. (1996). Imperfect competition and the effects of energy price increases on economic activity. National Bureau of Economic Research Papers. (No. w5634).
  • Salman, A. A., Ghali, K. H., & Shammari, N. A. (2008). Oil-price effects on the real business cycle: evidence from the G-7 countries. European Journal of Economics Finance Administrative Sciences. 14, 74-83.
  • Shelley, T. (2005). Oil: politics, poverty and the planet. Barlin: Zed Books.London.
  • World Bank. (2018). The World Bank In Iraq, [Available Online at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iraq/overview] , Retrieved on June 14, 2018.
  • Yardimcioğlu, F ve Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol fiyatları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik bir analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19).119-140.
  • Yoon, J. H. (2004, August). Oil and the G7 business cycle: Friedman’s Plucking Markov Switching Approach. In Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Semih Serkant Aktuğ 0000-0002-9745-0010

Mehmet Dağ 0000-0003-2206-2184

Hawar Rafaat Star This is me 0000-0002-1921-2172

Publication Date July 31, 2019
Submission Date June 21, 2019
Acceptance Date July 16, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019

Cite

APA Aktuğ, S. S., Dağ, M., & Star, H. R. (2019). THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN INVESTIGATION ON IRAQI ECONOMY. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal, 2(6), 273-285. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.580739
R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal 

https://dergipark.org.tr/rs