Türkiye’de Uluslararası Ticaret ve Turizm Gelirleri İlişkisi

Öz

Turizm sektörü Türkiye ekonomisinde lokomotif bir sektör olup, dış ticaret açığının kapatılmasında önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki turizm sektörü ve uluslararası turizme genel bir bakış sunmakta ve ilgili değişkenlerin ampirik bir analizini sunmaktadır. Çalışmada uluslararası ticaret ile turizm gelirleri arasındaki ilişki 2000-2021 yılları baz alınarak VAR modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. İlk olarak, çalışma kapsamında yer alan değişkenlerin durağanlığı ADF ve PP birim kök testleri ile kontrol edilmiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olup olmadığını belirlemek için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve ilişkinin yönü Toda Yamamoto nedensellik analizi ile incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Nedensellik analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar da uluslararası ticaretin bir göstergesi olarak kullanılan ticarete açıklık oranı ile turizm gelirleri arasında karşılıklı bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Son olarak yapılan varyans ayrıştırması ise turizm gelirlerinin uluslararası ticaret üzerinde önemli bir faktör olduğunu ve bu etkinin zaman içinde giderek arttığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm Sektörü
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Uluslararası Turizm
• VAR modeli
• Nedensellik Analizi

The Relationship Between International Trade and Tourism Revenues in Türkiye

Abstract

The tourism industry is a critical sector in Türkiye’s economy and plays a significant role in reducing the country's trade deficit. This research paper presents a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry and international tourism in Türkiye. The research paper conducts an empirical analysis of pertinent variables and investigates the association between international trade and tourism revenues. Utilizing the VAR model with data spanning from 2000 to 2021, the study scrutinizes the linkage between the two variables. Firstly, the study checks the stationarity of the variables, then uses the Johansen cointegration test to detect whether there exists a long-term relationship between the variables. Next, the direction of the relationship is determined through the Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The results obtained from the causality analysis also show that there is a reciprocal causality relationship between the rate of openness to trade, which is used as an indicator of international trade, and tourism revenues. Finally, the variance decomposition shows that tourism revenues are an important factor in international trade and this effect gradually increases over time.

Keywords

• Tourism Sector
• International Trade
• International Tourism
• VAR model

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