Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis: A Case Study

Year 2018, , 1458 - 1465, 01.10.2018

Nejan Huvaj , Emir Ahmet Oğuz

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.430032

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Probabilistic slope stability
analyses are becoming more and more popular to evaluate the safety level of
slopes and the associated risk and reliability, especially in the recent years.
Probabilistic approach can take into account the uncertainties and natural variability
in material properties, as well as in environmental factors, by using various statistical
distribution fuctions (such as normal, lognormal etc.) for random variables. It
is already noted by various researchers that, a slope with a deterministic
factor of safety larger than 1.00 using average values of soil parameters may
have a significant level of probability of failure, if the material properties
are unknown, or contain significant uncertainty/variability. In this study,
a well-documented landslide case study is used to demonstrate the importance of
probabilistic approach in slope stability; to investigate the effects of
considering variabiliy in material properties; and to compare deterministic and
probabilistic slope stability analyses results. Deterministic limit
eqilibrium, probabilistic limit equilibrium and probabilistic finite element
analyses are conducted for Lodalen landslide in Oslo, Norway and the results
are compared with each other. The factor of safety, the probability
of failure and the most critical failure surface are investigated with and
without statistical cross-correlation of soil’s shear strength parameters. The
results of this study can provide further insights into the comparison of
deterministic and probabilistic approaches in slope safety.

Keywords

slope stability, probabilistic, limit equilibrium, probability of failure

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