Seasonality of Precipitation in TURKEY: Present and Future Assessments

Year 2018, Volume: 22 Issue: 5, 1288 - 1297, 01.10.2018

Yasemin Ezber

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.313172

Cited By: 1

Abstract

In this study, the non-parametric
circular statistical method is used to analyze seasonality of precipitation
over Turkey for past (1956-1975) and present (1986-2005) periods using both
station data and gridded observation data (CRU-3.24). This method is also
applied to the CORDEX Europe domain for three different periods which cover
early century (2016-2035), mid-century (2046-2065) and end-century (2081-2099)
to investigate the potential future changes in the seasonality under a pessimistic
climate scenario, CMIP5-RCP 8.5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5-Representative
Concentration Pathways 8.5).

Seasonality Index (SI) over
Turkey decreases from south (~0.6) to north (~0.1) for past and present periods.
For the future periods, SI tends to increase in the south, especially in the south-eastern
Anatolian region, while it tends to decrease over the Black Sea and central
Anatolian regions. Beside SI, another outcome from the circular statistics is the
average occurrence time of precipitation during a year. Winter months
(December-January-February) are common occurrence time of precipitation in
general for past and present periods. Precipitation occurrence time for the future
periods does not change much in the future periods for most of the regions except
for the central Black Sea and southeastern Anatolia where it shifts to October
and November, respectively.    

Keywords

Precipitation, Seasonality, Circular Statistic, CMIP5-RCP8.5

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