The Impact of the World Trade Uncertainty on International Trade: The Case of the Turkish Economy

Abstract

International trade can be affected by various economic events, including domestic and global developments, such as economic crises, exchange rate volatilities, natural resource explorations, and globalization. In addition, trade uncertainty is an important factor that affects the trade volume of an economy. Recently, trade uncertainty has increased episodically in the world with trade wars between the US and China, and this uncertainty has spilled over to other countries, thereby affecting trade volumes. This study attempts to understand and explain the role of World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) on both export and import in the Turkish economy for the period from 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Therefore, this study utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The research findings presented here reveal that there is a long-run nexus between the variables in both models. The results also show that an increase in WTU negatively affects export, while it has no statistically significant effect on Turkish import for the period examined.

Keywords

• ARDL bounds testing
• Türkiye
• export supply function
• import demand function
• trade uncertainity

Project Number

Yok

DÜNYA TİCARET BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN ULUSLARARASI TİCARETE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Uluslararası ticaret, ekonomik krizler, döviz kuru oynaklıkları, doğal kaynak keşifleri, küreselleşme vb. gibi yerel ve küresel gelişmeler dahil olmak üzere çeşitli ekonomik olaylardan etkilenebilir. Ayrıca ticaret belirsizliği bir ekonominin ticaret hacmini etkileyen bir diğer önemli faktördür. Son dönemde dünyada ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşı ile birlikte ticaret belirsizliği dönem dönem artmış ve bu belirsizlik diğer ülkelere de sıçrayarak ticaret hacimlerini etkilemiştir. Bu araştırma, Dünya Ticaret Belirsizliğinin (WTU) 1998:Ç1’den 2021:Ç4’e kadar olan dönem için Türkiye ekonomisinin hem ihracatı hem de ithalatı üzerindeki rolünü anlamaya ve açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, bu makale, eşbütünleşme için Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçları her iki model için de değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, aynı zamanda, incelenen dönemde, WTU’daki bir artışın Türkiye’nin ihracatını olumsuz etkilediğini, buna karşılık ithalatı üzerinde ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir.

Keywords

• ARDL sınır testi
• Türkiye
• ithalat talep fonskiyonu
• ihracat arz fonksiyonu
• ticaret belirsizliği

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Thanks

Yok

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