YABANCI SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN YURTİÇİ YATIRIMLARA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2019, Issue: 114, 135 - 155, 01.09.2019

Semra Boğa

Abstract

Bu çalışma; Bangladeş, Botswana, Brezilya, Çin, Endonezya, Fas, Filipinler, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Meksika, Pakistan, Peru, Tayland ve Türkiye’den oluşan 14 gelişmekte olan ülkede yabancı sermaye girişleri ve yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkileri 1990-2017 dönemi için ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. Birimler arasındaki korelasyonu test etmek için Pesaran Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Testi, durağanlık seviyelerinin belirlenmesi için IPS Birim Kök Testi uygulanmıştır. Dumitrescu ve Hurlin Panel Granger Nedensellik testi sonuçları kısa vadede; Portföy Yatırımlarından PRF Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumuna GFC doğru tek yönlü, GFC ile Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla GDP , GFC ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım DYY ve GFC ile Yabancı Krediler LNS arasında ise çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiler DOLSMG tahmincisi ile test edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre; DYY’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %0.59 oranında azaltmakta, GSYH’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %0.45 oranında, PRF’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %1.68 oranında ve LNS’deki %1’lik artış GFC’yi %2.12 oranında artırmaktadır

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım DYY , Portföy Yatırımı, Yabancı Kredi, Yurtiçi Yatırım, Panel Veri Analizi.

IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS ON DOMESTIC INVESTMENTS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between the foreign capital inflows and domestic investment in 14 developing countries -Bangladesh, Botswana, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey- over the period 1990-2017. Pesaran’s Cross-Section Dependence Test was performed to test the correlation and IPS Unit Root Test was applied to reveal the stationarity level between the units. Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s Granger Panel Causality test results confirmed a one-way causality from Portfolio Investment PRF to Gross Fixed Capital Formation GFC and a bidirectional causality between GFC and Gross Domestic Product GDP , GFC and Foreign Direct Investment FDI , GFC and Foreign Loans LNS in the short-term. Long-term relationships between the variables were tested with the DOLSMG estimator. According to the test results; a 1% rise in FDI decreases GFC by 0.59 %, a 1% rise in GDP increases GFC by 0.45 %, a 1% rise in PRF increases GFC by 1.68 %, and a 1% rise in LNS boosts GFC by 2.12 %.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment FDI , Portfolio Investment, Foreign Loan, Domestic Investment, Panel Data Analysis.

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