TAX–SPEND CAUSALITY IN TURKEY: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST IN FREQUENCY DOMAIN

Year 2020, Issue: 116, 121 - 139, 01.03.2020

Veli Yılancı Mahmut Ünsal Şaşmaz Ömer Faruk Öztürk

Abstract

In this study, we aim to identify the causality relationship between taxes and public expenditures for Turkey over the period January 2006 - November 2019 using asymmetric causality test in the frequency domain. The results of the study show that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from tax revenues to public expenditures in the long term, while there exists a one-way asymmetric causality relationship in the short, medium and long term, for positive shocks. Therefore, we conclude that the tax-expenditure hypothesis is valid in the long term, while the asymmetric tax-expenditure hypothesis is valid in the short, medium, and long terms.

Keywords

Public Expenditure, Taxes, Asymmetric Causality Test

Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ile Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Frekans Alanda Asimetrik Testinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışmada frekans alanda asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanılarak, Türkiye’de Ocak 2006 - Kasım 2019 arası kamu harcamaları ile vergiler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda uzun dönemde vergi gelirlerinden kamu harcamalarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi var iken, vergi gelirlerinin pozitif şoklarından kamu harcamalarının pozitif şoklarına doğru, kısa, orta ve uzun vadede tek yönlü asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Dolayısıyla uzun dönemde Türkiye’de vergi-harcama hipotezinin geçerli olduğu; kısa, orta ve uzun vadelerde ise asimetrik vergi-harcama hipotezinin geçerli olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır

Keywords

Kamu Harcamaları, Vergiler, Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

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