GÜNEY ÇİN DENİZİ’NDE ÇİN-ABD GÜÇ MÜCADELESİ

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 45, 413 - 439, 30.04.2023

İlknur Sar , Özlem Demirkıran

Öz

Küresel güç rekabetinin oldukça artmış olduğu bu dönemde, dünyada iki önemli aktör olan ABD ve Çin birçok konuda karşı karşıya gelmektedir. Son dönemlerde iki büyük gücü karşı karşıya getiren önemli bir konu da denizlerdeki güç mücadelesi olmuştur. Özellikle gücün Asya-Pasifik coğrafyasına kayması, ABD’yi de bölgeye yönelmeye sevk etmiştir. Asya’da yükselişe geçen ve istikrarlı bir büyüme kaydeden Çin ile süper güç konumunu kaybetmek istemeyen ABD’nin çıkarları bu coğrafyada çakışmaktadır. Sahip olduğu jeopolitik önem, yer altı kaynakları, biyolojik çeşitliliği ve deniz ticaretindeki önemli konumuyla Güney Çin Denizi, ABD ve Çin’i Batı Pasifik’te jeopolitik bir rekabete sürüklemiştir. Gerek bölge ülkeleri gerekse büyük güçler arasında mücadeleye sahne olan Güney Çin Denizi, giderek artan çatışmalarla daha da istikrarsız bir bölge haline gelmektedir. ABD, bireysel girişimleri yanında bölgede kurduğu ikili ve çok taraflı müttefikliklerle Çin’i çevrelemeye ve bölgedeki Çin egemenliğini kısıtlamaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmada Güney Çin Denizi’ndeki Çin-ABD mücadelesi, iki ülkenin bölgede birbirlerine yönelik gerçekleştirdikleri hamlelerle ele alınmaya çalışılacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güney Çin Denizi, Çin, ABD, güç mücadelesi

Kaynakça

• Alenezi, D. A. (2020). “US rebalance strategy to Asia and US-China rivalry in South China Sea from the perspective of the offensive realism”, Review of Economics and Political Science, https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-10-2019-0132 (11.12.2022).
• Allison, G. (2020). “The U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Clues from History”, The Struggle for Power: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century, L. Bitounis ve J. Price (eds.), The Aspen Institute, https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Allison-Final.pdf (2.12.2022).
• Ayhan, İ. S. (2020). China’s South China Sea Dispute: The Growing SinoAmerican Competition in The Asia-Pacific (1945-2017), (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi) Yalova Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yalova.
• BBC News (2021, Ekim 8). ABD Nükleer Denizaltısı Güney Çin Denizi’nde, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-58839284 (26.10.2021).
• Binzat, G. (2017, Eylül 6). “Güney Çin Denizi’nde ABD ve Çin’i Savaşın Eşiğine Getiren Suni Adalar Krizi”, http://avrupabirligigazetesi.com.tr/2017/09/06/guney-cin-denizinde-abd-ve-cini-savasin-esigine-getiren-suni-adalar-krizi/ (26.10.2021).
• Brands, H. ve Cooper, Z. (2018). “Getting Serious About Strategy in the South China Sea”, Naval War College Review, 71 (1), 1-21.
• Brooke-Holland, L., Curtis, J. and Mills, C. (2021, Ekim). The AUKUS Agreement, House of Commons Library.
• Buszynski, L. (2017, Ocak 18). “Why is the South China Sea so important to the US?”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-south-china-sea-so-important-to-the-us-71477 (29.11.2022).
• CFR (Council Foreign Relations). China’s Maritime Disputes, https://www.cfr.org/timeline/chinas-maritime-disputes (21.10.2021).
• CGTN (2022, Temmuz 29). “China’s first offshore shale exploration well in South China Sea”, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-07-28/China-s-first-offshore-shale-exploration-well-in-South-China-Sea-1c2HxcuZsqc/index.html (28.11.2022).
• Cheng, L. K. (2005). “China’s Experience with Foreign Direct Investment: Lessons for Developing Economies”, H.S. Kehal (eds), Foreign Investment in Rapidly Growing Countries, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 46-63.
• Cheng, M. (2022). “AUKUS: The Changing Dynamic and Its Regional Implications”, European Journal of Development Studies, 2 (1), 1-7.
• China power. “How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?”, https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/ (28.11.2022).
• Chubb, A. (2017, Nisan 15). “China’s “Blue Territory” and the Technosphere in Maritime East Asia”, Technosphere Magazine, https://www.anthropocene-curriculum.org/contribution/chinas-blue-territory-and-the-technosphere-in-maritime-east-asia (29.11.2022).
• Clinton, H. (2011, Ekim 11). “America’s Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/ (28.12.2022).   Congar, K. (2021, Eylül 17). “ABD ve Rusya Zirvede: Dünyada Hangi Ülkenin Kaç Tane Nükleer Denizaltısı Var?”, EuroNews, https://tr.euronews.com/2021/09/17/abd-ve-rusya-zirvede-dunyada-hangi-ulkenin-kac-tane-nukleer-denizalt-s-var (27.10.2021).
• Cordesman, A. H. (2018). Chinese Strategy, Military Forces, and Economics: The Metrics of Cooperation,
• Competition and/or Conflict, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• Cordesman, A. H., Burke A. A. ve Molot, M. (2019). China and the U.S.: Cooperation, Competition and/or
• Conflict An Experimental Assessment, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI). “South China Sea Energy Exploration and Development”, https://amti.csis.org/south-china-sea-energy-exploration-and-development/ (25.11.2022).
• Çelikkol, A. O. ve Karabel, S. (2017). “Türkiye-Yunanistan İlişkileri ve Denizden Kaynaklanan Uluslararası Sorunlar”, Bilge Strateji, 9 (16), 13-31.
• Daiss, T. (2019, Mart 2). “South China Sea Energy Politics Heat Up”, Oil Price, https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/South-China-Sea-Energy-Politics-Heat-Up.html (28.11.2022)
• Doğan, D. ve Gürkaynak, M. (2019). “Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin Güney Çin Denizi’nde Dönüşen Yeni Stratejisi: Four Sha Doktrini”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 24 (4), 921-947.
• EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). (2018, Ağustos 27). “More than 30% of global maritime crude oil trade moves through the South China Sea”, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36952, (25.11.2022).
• EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) (2017, Kasım 2) “Almost 40% of global liquefied natural gas trade moves through the South China Sea”, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33592 (25.11.2022).
• Elbir, H. Ç. (2021, Eylül 23). “Pasifik’te Yeni Bir Askeri İttifak: AUKUS”, AVİM, Analiz No:29, https://avim.org.tr/tr/Analiz/PASIFIK-TE-YENI-BIR-ASKERI-ITTIFAK-AUKUS (27.10.2021).
• Emin, İ. (2021, Ekim 4). “AUKUS’tan QUAD’a: Paktların Ölümü ve İttifakların Doğuşu”, Şarkul Avsat, https://turkish.aawsat.com/home/article/3226176/aukus%E2%80%99tan-quad%E2%80%99-paktlar%C4%B1n-%C3%B6l%C3%BCm%C3%BC-ve-ittifaklar%C4%B1n-do%C4%9Fu%C5%9Fu (01.11.2021).
• Francis, R. ve Lary, R. (2021, Temmuz 1). “Winning the Public Diplomacy Battle in the South China Sea”, Council Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/winning-public-diplomacy-battle-south-china-sea (22.10.2021).
• Fravel, T. (2014). “US Policy Towards the Disputes in the South China Sea Since 1995”, Policy Report, The S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Singapore.
• Furgacz, P. (2014). “The military and security aspects of Obama’s pivot to Asia”, içinde D. Mierzejewski (Ed.), The Quandaries of China’s Domestic and Foreign Development, Lodz University Press, 107-121.
• Genç, A. (2019). “Enerji Kaynakları Çatışmasının Ortasında Güney Çin Denizi”, Mesleki ve Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2 (1), 11-28.
• Glaser, J. ve Thrall, T. (2017, Nisan 24). “Obama’s Foreign Policy Legacy and the Myth of Retrenchment”, CATO Working Paper 43.
• Global Times (2021, Eylül 16). “AUKUS TO Bring Nuclear-Powered Submarine Fever’ Across Globe”, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234459.shtml (28.10.2021).
• Hamzaoğlu, H. (2020). “Rodrigo Duterte Dönemi Filipinler’in Güney Çin Denizi Sorunu Bağlamında Küresel Güçlerle İlişkileri”, Turkish Studies Economy, 15 (3), 1353 – 1365.
• Haver, Z. (2020, Mayıs 12). “Sansha and the Expansion of China’s South China Sea Administration”, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, https://amti.csis.org/sansha-and-the-expansion-of-chinas-south-china-sea-administration/ (03.12.2021).
• Heydarian, R. J. (2022, Mayıs 16). “Biden Tries to Strengthen Us Alliance with ASEAN”, Asia Times, https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/biden-tries-to-strengthen-us-alliance-with-asean/ (19.09.2022).   Hooper, M. R. (2020, Ocak 10). “Top Conflicts to Watch in 2020: An Armed Confrontation in the South China Sea”, Council Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/top-conflicts-watch-2020-armed-confrontation-south-china-sea (22.10.2021).
• Kaplan, R. (2014). Asia’s Cauldron: the South China Sea and the end of a stable Pacific, Random House, New York.
• Kaplan, R. D. (2015, Şubat 20). “Why the South China Sea is so crucial”, Business Insider Australia, https://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-the-south-china-sea-is-so-crucial-2015-2, (25.11.2022).
• Karabel, S. (2021, Mayıs 21). “Güney Çin Denizi’nde Düğümleri Kim Çözecek?”, Fikirturu, https://fikirturu.com/jeo-strateji/guney-cin-denizinde-dugumleri-kim-cozecek/ (03.12.2021).
• Karadağ, H. (2021). “Küresel Rekabetin Bölgesel Güvenliğe Yansımaları: Çin Denizi’nde ABD-Çin Mücadelesi”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 30(1), 166-174.
• Keyvan, Ö. Z. (2017). “Güney Çin Denizi’nde Tahkim: Çin-Filipinler Rekabeti”, Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1 (13), 251-267.
• Kikuchi, S. ve Arakaki, H. (2017). “The United States: addressing the return to great power competition”, East Asian Strategic Review, National Institute for Defense Studies, Tokyo, Shinjuku City.
• Kotani, T. (2011, Temmuz 18). “Why China Wants South China Sea”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2011/07/why-china-wants-the-south-china-sea/ (29.11.2022).
• Koyuncu, M. C. (2021, Temmuz 7). “Hint-Pasifik Bölgesinin Yeni Yıldızı QUAD: Zayıflıklar, Fırsatlar, Tehditler ve Avantajlar”, ANKASAM, 07 Temmuz 2021, https://www.ankasam.org/hint-pasifik-bolgesinin-yeni-yildizi-quad-zayifliklar-firsatlar-tehditler-ve-avantajlar/ (27.10.2021).
• Koyuncu, M. C. (2021, Eylül 21). “Yeni Bir Jeopolitik Fay Hattı: AUKUS”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/yeni-bir-jeopolitik-fay-hatti-aukus/ (28.10.2021).
• Koyuncu, M. C. (2022). “Hint-Pasifik’te Yeni Bir Jeopolitik: ABD-Güney Kore-Japonya Üçlü İttifakı”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/hint-pasifikte-yeni-bir-jeopolitik-abd-guney-kore-japonya-uclu-ittifaki/ (20.12.2022).
• Lendon, B. and George, S. (2021, Eylül 3). “The long arm of China’s new maritime law risks causing conflict with US and Japan”, CNN, Analysis, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/03/china/coast-guard-law-mic-intl-hnk/index.html (27.10.2021).
• Lew, L. (2021, Ekim 23). “China’s Largest, Most Advanced Civilion Patrol Boat”, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3153455/chinas-largest-most-advanced-civilian-patrol-boat-could-be-used (26.10.2021).
• Liberman, O. and Kaufman, E. (2021, Eylül 8). “US sails ship through South China Sea days after China institutes new maritime ID rules”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/08/politics/us-south-china-sea-maritime-id-rules/index.html (27.10.2021).
• Luthra, G. (2022, Mayıs 10). “AUKUS and the Eastern Indo-Pacific’s Evolving Security Architecture”, Observer Research Foundation, https://www.orfonline.org/research/aukus-and-the-eastern-indo-pacifics-evolving-security-architecture/#_ednref19 (21.06.2022).
• Ma, X. (2019). “China and the UNCLOS: Practices and Policies”, The Chinese Journal of Global Governance, 1-20.
• Marston, H. (2016, Mayıs 10). “Obama’s South China sea strategy is working”, The National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/obamas-south-china-sea-strategy-working-16132 (13.12.2022).
• Mastro, O. S. (2020, Mayıs 21). “Military Confrontation in the South China Sea”, Contingency Planning Memorandum, 36, https://www.cfr.org/report/military-confrontation-south-china-sea (22.10.2021).
• McBride, J., Chatzky A. ve Siripurapu, A. (2021, Eylül 20). “What’s Next for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?”, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp (11.12.2022).
• Mercan, A. F. (2022, Mayıs 23). “ABD, Japonya dahil 13 ülkeyle 'Hint-Pasifik Ekonomik Çerçevesi'ni başlattı”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/abd-japonya-dahil-13-ulkeyle-hint-pasifik-ekonomik-cercevesini-baslatti/2595266 (20.12.2022).   Monaghan, A. (2014, Ocak 10). “China surpasses US as world's largest trading nation”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/10/china-surpasses-us-world-largest-trading-nation#:~:text=China%20became%20the%20world's%20largest,landmark%20milestone%22%20for%20the%20country (03.04.2023).
• Napang, M., Nurhasanah S. ve Rohman, S. (2019). “One Belt One Road (OBOR) and The Increase of China’s Global Influence”, PEOPLE: International Journal of Social Sciences, 5(2), 53-69.
• Nepomuceno, P. (2022, Kasım 15). “EDCA projects on agreed locations for implementation in 2023”, https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1188591 (11.12.2022).
• Okur, M. A. (2017). ““Bir Kuşak, Bir Yol” Projesi’nin Jeopolitiği, Türk Kuşağı ve Uygurlar”, Akademik Hassasiyetler, 4(8), 45-55.
• Örmeci, O. (2021). “ABD Dış Politikasında Öncelikli Gündem Asya-Pasifik”, Bilge Strateji, 12 (22), 9-17.
• Pandalai, S. (2022, Haziran 24). “QUAD’s Maritime Domain Awareness Needs Time to Deliver”, IDSA, https://idsa.in/idsacomments/Quads-Maritime-Domain-240622 (18.09.2022).
• Pekcan, C. (2017). “Uluslararası Hukuk Çerçevesinde Güney Çin Krizinin Değerlendirilmesi”, Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1 (3), 54-80.
• Poling, G. B. (2019, Ocak 9). “Illuminating the South China Sea’s Dark Fishing Fleets”, https://ocean.csis.org/spotlights/illuminating-the-south-china-seas-dark-fishing-fleets/ (25.11.2022).
• Rahman, C. ve Tsamenyi, M. (2010). “A Strategic Perspective on Security and Naval Issues in the South China Sea”, Ocean Development and International Law, 41(4), 315-333.
• Sempa, F. P. (2015, Ocak 9). “Nicholas Spykman and the Struggle for the Asiatic Mediterranean”, https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/nicholas-spykman-and-the-struggle-for-the-asiatic-mediterranean/ (29.11.2022).  
• SIPRI (2009). Appendix 5A. Military expenditure data, 1999–2008”, SIPRI Yearbook 2009, https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2009/05/appendix5A (03.04.2023).
• Statista. (2021). “Leading oil-consuming countries worldwide in 2021(in 1,000 barrels per day)”, https://www.statista.com/statistics/271622/countries-with-the-highest-oil-consumption-in-2012/ (28.11.2022).
• Tarapore, A. (2018, Kasım 16). “The Geopolitics of the Quad”, The National Bureau of Asian Research, https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-geopolitics-of-the-quad/ (28.10.2021).
• Temiz, M. (2022). “Çin’in Hegemonik Düzeni ve Güney Çin Denizi Sorunu”, Doğu Asya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5 (9), 1-22.
• UK Prime Minister’s Office. (2021, Eylül 15). “UK, US and Australia launch new security partnership” https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-us-and-australia-launch-new-security-partnership (27.10.2021).
• US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs. (2022, Haziran 9). U.S. Relations with Australia Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet, 9 Haziran 2022, https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-australia/ (12.12.2022).
• US Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. (2022, Ekim 7) U.S. Security Cooperation with the Philippines Fact Sheet, 7 Ekim 2022, https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-the-philippines/ (11.12.2022).
• US Office of the Spokesperson (2021, Mart 14). Reaffirming the Unbreakable U.S.-Japan Alliance Fact Sheet, https://www.state.gov/reaffirming-the-unbreakable-u-s-japan-alliance/ (12.12.2022).
• Xuanzun, L. (2020, Haziran 21). “China releases report on US military presence in Asia-Pacific, warns of increased conflict risk”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202006/1192340.shtml (28.10.2021).   Valencia, M. J. (2016). “The South China Sea and the “Thucydides trap””, The South China Sea A crucible of regional cooperation or conflict-making sovereignty claims?, C. J. Jenner ve T. T. Thuy, Cambridge University Press, 59-68.
• Watson, I., Lendon, B. ve Westcott, B. (2018, Ağustos). “Battle for the South China Sea”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2018/08/asia/south-china-sea/ (25.11.2022).
• Williams, B. R. vd., (2016). “The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Strategic Implications”, Congressional Reseach Service.
• Williams, Z. (2020, Haziran 10). “Chinas’s Tightening Grasp in the South China Sea: A First Hand-Look”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/chinas-tightening-grasp-in-the-south-china-sea-a-first-hand-look/ (23.10.2021).
• Yıldırım, S. (2020). “Yeni Çevrelemenin İlk Sahnesi: Güney Çin Denizi’nde ABD-Çin Rekabeti”, International Journal of Politics and Security, 2 (4), 197-216.
• Yılmaz, C. (2020). “Güneydoğu Asya’nın Potansiyel Çatışma Kaynağı Olarak Güney Çin Denizi”, Doğu Asya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3 (6), 95-114.
• Yorulmaz, M. (2021). “Güney Çin Denizi’ndeki Bölgesel İhtilaflar ve Çin’in Askeri Modernizasyonu”, Uluslararası Anadolu Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5 (2), 680-698.