İktisat Teorisinde Nüfus ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Gelişimi

Abstract

Sanayileşmeden günümüze, nüfus artışı ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi iktisat teorisinin temel tartışma konularından birisidir. Klasik iktisatta, nüfus yoğunluğu, iş bölümü, üretkenlik, reel ücretler ve yoksulluk kavramları ile ele alınan nüfus-büyüme ilişkisi, yirminci yüzyılın ikinci yarısından itibaren teknolojik gelişme, çevre kirliliği, sürdürülebilirlik, sosyal sermaye ve uluslararası göç olgularını ve gelişmiş-gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasındaki farklılıkları bünyesine alan bir aşamaya evrilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Ester Boserup, Michael Kremer, Dennis Meadows, Julian Simon, Nicholas Eberstadt ve Geoffrey Garret’in konu ile ilgili temel eserlerini ilk elden inceleyerek nüfus-büyüme ilişkisinin tarihsel gelişimini izlemektir. Tartışmaların bir tarafı, nüfus artışının ekonomik büyüme için gerekli bir koşul olduğunu ileri sürerken, diğer tarafı ekonomik büyüme için bir kısıt oluşturduğu yönündedir. Bir yandan eğitim seviyesi ve üretkenliği yüksek çalışma çağında nüfusun gerekliliğine vurgu yapılırken diğer yandan doğal kaynaklar ve gıda talebi üzerindeki baskının sürdürülebilirliği için ar-ge yatırımlarının ve teknolojik yeniliklerin önemine dikkat çekilmekte; nüfus-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi açısından yakın gelecekte, olumlu ve olumsuz yanlarıyla birlikte, uluslararası göçün daha fazla önem kazanacağının altı çizilmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Nüfus
• Teknolojik Gelişme
• Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler

The Development of the Relationship Between Population and Economic Growth in Economic Theory

Abstract

From industrialization to the present day, the relationship between population increases and economic growth is one of the main economic debates. In classical economics, the population-economic growth relationship, which has been addressed with the concepts of population density, division of labor, productivity, real wages, and poverty, has evolved since the second half of the twentieth century to include technological development, environmental pollution, sustainability, social capital, international migration, and differences between developed and developing countries. This study aims to observe the historical development of the population-economic growth relationship by investigating the main works of Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Ester Boserup, Michael Kremer, Dennis Meadows, Julian Simon, Nicholas Eberstadt, and Geoffrey Garret on the subject. While one side of the debate argues that population growth is necessary for economic growth, the other side argues that it is a constraint for economic growth. On the one hand, the necessity of a working-age population with a high level of education and productivity is emphasized; on the other hand, the importance of R&D investments and technological innovations for the sustainability of the pressure on natural resources and food demand is highlighted. Furthermore, it is underlined that in the near future, with its positive and negative aspects, international migration will gain more importance regarding the population-economic growth relationship.

Keywords

• Economic Growth
• Population
• Technological Development
• Developing Countries

References

1. Aidrus, T. (2009). Is the LHC a waste of money?, Eurekamagazine, Erişim tarihi: 23.07.2015, http://www.eurekamagazine.co.uk/design-engineering-blogs/is-the-lhc-a-waste-of-money/18515/
2. Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y. & Zhang, L. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap, IMF Working Paper, 13/71.
3. Anderson, R. & Liu, Y. (2013). How Low Can You Go? Negative Interest Rates, The Regional Economist, January 2013, 13-14.
4. Booth, A. (2009). Coal Mining, Erişim tarihi: 20.06.2015, https://studylib.net/doc/18270020/coal-mining---geevor-tin-mine
5. Boserup, E. (1965). The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, Londra: George Allen & Unwin LTD.
6. Boserup, E. (1981). Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends, Chicago: The University Of Chicago Press.
7. BM, (2014). The World at Six Billion, Erişim tarihi: 20.06.2015, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf
8. BP, (2015). Statistical Review of World Energy, Erişim tarihi: 223.07.2015, https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/news-and-insights/speeches/speech-archive/statistical-review-of-world-energy-2015-bob-dudley-speech.pd

9. CIA, (2014). The World Fact Book: Total Fertility Rate, Erişim tarihi: 12.13.2014; https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
10. DeGroot, J. (2009). The Space Race is A Pointless Waste of Money, Telegraph, Erişim tarihi: 23.07.2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/4807506/The-space-race-is-a-pointless-waste-of-money.html
11. Eberstadt, N. (2004). Four Surprises in Global Demography, Orbis, Fall 2004, 673-684.
12. Eberstadt, N. (2010). The Demographic Future: What Population Growth and Decline Means for the Global Economy, Foreign Affairs, 89(6), 54-64.
13. Garrett, G. (2004). Globalization’s Missing Middle, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2004, 84-96
14. Grosskopf, P. (2011). Is 100% Renewable Energy Possible for Germany by 2020?, Global Energy Network Institute (GENI), Erişim tarihi: 23.07.2015, http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/research/renewable-energy-potential-of-germany/Germany_Final_PBMfinal.pdf
15. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, (1967 edition), Macmillan.
16. Kremer, M. (1993). Population Growth and Technological Change: One million B.C. to 1990, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), 681-716.
17. Malthus, T. (1798). An essay on the principle of population, London İngiltere: St. Paul’s Church-Yard. (İlk baskı 1798, Genişletilmiş son hali 1926) (1998, Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, http://www.esp.org).
18. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. & Behrens W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth, New York: Universe Books.
19. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. & Behrens, W. W. (2018). The limits to growth. In Green planet blues (25-29). Routledge.
20. Pulsipher, L. M. & Pulsipher, A. (2008). World Regional Geography: Global Patterns, Local Lives, New Yok: W.H. Freeman and Company.
21. Riley, J. C. (2008). Low Income, Social Growth, and Good Health: A History of Twelve Countries, University of California Press.
22. Simon, J. L. (1996), The Ultimate Resource 2, New Jersey ABD, Princeton University Press Princeton.
23. Smith, A. (1776). The Wealth of Nations, (1937 edition), Random House.
24. Soubbotina, T. P. & Sheram A. K. (2000). Beyond Economic Growth: Meeting the Challenges of Global Development, WBI Learning Resources Series, World Bank Publications.
25. Stearns, P. N., Adas, M., Schwartz, S. B. & Gilbert, M. J. (2008). World Civilizations: The Global Experience, Pearson Ed.
26. Tinker, I. (2003). A Tribute to Ester Boserup: Utilizing Interdisciplinarity to Analyze Global Socio-Economic Change, Global Tensions Conference, Cornell University, 9-10 March 2001.
27. Tragaki, A. (2011). Demography and Security, A Complex Nexus: The Case of Balkans, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 11 (4), 435-450.
28. Wrigley, E. A. (1985). Population Growth: England, 1680-182, Refresh 1, Autumn 1985.
29. Zubrin, R. (2012). The Population Control Holocaust, The New Atlantis, 35, Spring 2012, 33-54.