Prediction of COVID-19 Pandemic Before The Latest Restrictions in Turkey by Using SIR Model

Abstract

The ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic affected our lives dramatically. Many epidemiological models are developed by scientists to estimate the number of infected individuals and the transmission rate of the CoVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of COVID-19 in Turkey over the period November 16 and December 9, 2020, using the SIR model. The estimation of the reproduction number is found as 1.38. The peak day of the pandemic based on the period used in the SIR model is estimated as the 13th of January. By that date, around a total number of 3530000 individuals would be affected according to the SIR model and among them, approximately 141000 people would be active cases. In total, approximately 35000 people would die, based on a mortality rate of 1%. These predictions are made according to the scenario, which assumes, the latest restrictions weren't announced by the Turkish Ministry of Health. The findings of this study can be used to understand the characteristics of the pandemic at a certain time and estimate the distribution of the disease but are not suggested for any policy change and strategies.

Keywords

• SIR model
• Covid-19
• Pandemic
• Epidemic prediction model

Türkiye'deki Son Kısıtlamalardan Önce COVID-19 Pandemisi’nin SIR Modeli Kullanılarak Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

CoVID-19 salgını hayatımızı dramatik bir şekilde etkilemeye devam etmektedir. Birçok epidemiyolojik model, günlük vaka sayısını ve CoVID-19 pandemisi’nin bulaşma oranını tahmin etmek için bilim adamları tarafından geliştirilmiştir. Bu makalede, COVID-19 pandemisi’nin Türkiye'deki, 16 Kasım - 9 Aralık 2020 dönemindeki gelişimini baz alan SIR modeli kullanılarak pandemi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada üreme hızı 1.38 olarak bulunmuştur. SIR modelinde kullanılan döneme göre toplam vaka sayısının pik yapacağı tarih 13 Ocak 2020 olarak tahmin edilmektedir. O tarihe kadar, SIR modeline göre yaklaşık 3530000 kişi etkilenecek ve bunların arasında yaklaşık 141000’ini aktif vaka olacaktır. Toplamda, %1'lik bir ölüm oranı baz alındığında, yaklaşık olarak 35000 kişi vefat edecektir. Bu tahminler, son kısıtlamaların Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Sağlık Bakanlığı tarafından açıklanmadığını varsayan senaryoya göre yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, belirli bir zamanda pandeminin özelliklerini anlamak ve hastalığın dağılımını tahmin etmek için kullanılabilir ancak herhangi bir politika değişikliği ve strateji için önerilmemektedir.

Keywords

• SIR model
• Covid-19
• Pandemi
• Salgın tahmin modeli

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