ROC Curves in Survival Analysis and an Application

Year 2024, Volume: 28 Issue: 3, 490 - 503, 23.12.2024

Şeyma Sertkaya Duru Karasoy

https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufenbed.1528404

Abstract

The survival data includes survival times and status indicating whether the event occurred. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves used in the analysis of survival data determine how well they discriminate between those who experience the event and those who do not, allowing to choose the correct cut-off value. Since time is involved in survival analysis and the status may change, classical ROC curves do not give accurate results. For this reason, new methods have been developed by researching time-dependent ROC curves and ROC curve estimates denoted by ROC(t) have been proposed. Among the ROC curve estimator methods used for survival analysis in this paper, cumulative sensitivity and dynamic specificity (CD), incident sensitivity and dynamic specificity (ID), incident sensitivity and static selectivity (IS) and finally the naive estimator is introduced. To demonstrate the applicability of these estimators, an application was made on real data, cervical cancer. For the data, CD1 and CD2 gave similar results. Additionally, CD5 and CD6 also gave similar results. While ID1 had the lowest classification performance, CD4 showed good classification performance from the 10th month.

Keywords

ROC nearest neighbor estimator, ROC Kaplan-Meier, ROC survival, Survival analysis, Time dependent ROC curves

Yaşam Çözümlemesinde ROC Eğrileri ve Bir Uygulama

Abstract

Yaşam verisi, yaşam sürelerini ve olayın gerçekleşip gerçekleşmediğini gösteren durumu içerir. Yaşam verilerinin analizinde kullanılan alıcı işlem karakteristiği (ROC) eğrileri olayı yaşayanlar ile yaşamayanlar arasında ne kadar iyi ayrım yaptığını belirleyip doğru eşik değerini seçmeyi sağlar. Yaşam çözümlemesinde süre söz konusu olduğu için durum değişebileceğinden klasik ROC eğrileri doğru sonuçlar vermez. Bu nedenle zamana bağlı ROC eğrileri üzerinde araştırmalar yapılarak yeni yöntemler geliştirilmiş ve ROC(t) ile gösterilen ROC eğrisi tahminleri önerilmiştir. Bu makalede yaşam çözümlemesi için kullanılan ROC eğrisi tahmin edicileri yöntemlerinden kümülatif duyarlılık ve dinamik seçicilik (CD), olay duyarlılığı ve dinamik seçicilik (ID), olay duyarlılığı ve statik seçicilik (IS) ve son olarak naive tahmin edicisi tanıtılmıştır. Bu tahmin edicilerin uygulanabilirliğini göstermek için gerçek veri olan serviks kanseri verisi üzerinde uygulama yapılmıştır. Bu veri için CD1 ile CD2 benzer sonuçlar vermiştir. Ayrıca CD5 ile CD6 da benzer sonuçlar vermiştir. ID1 en düşük sınıflandırma performansına sahipken CD4, 10. aydan itibaren iyi bir sınıflandırma performansı göstermiştir.

Keywords

ROC en yakın komşu tahmin edicisi, ROC Kaplan-Meier, ROC yaşam, Yaşam çözümlemesi, Zamana bağlı ROC eğrileri

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