Hisse Senedi Piyasası ve Reel Ekonomik Faaliyetler Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması
Yıl 2011,
Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 333 - 348, 01.03.2011
Yrd.doç.dr.ömer İskenderoğlu
Doç.dr.serkan Yılmaz Kandır
Prof.dr.yıldırım Beyazıt Önal
Kaynakça
- Akkaya, Ş., Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (1998), Ekonometri I, Econometrics I, Anadolu Matbaacılık, İzmir.
- Aydemir, Oğuzhan (2008), “Hisse Senedi Getirileri ve Reel Sektör Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 10(2), s.37-55.
- Barro, Robert J. (1990), “The Stock Market and Investment”, Review of Financial Studies, 3(1), s. 115-131.
- Binswanger, Mathias (2000), “Stock Market Booms and Real Economic Activity: Is This Time Different?”, International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol 9, s.387-415.
- Burgstaller, Johann (2002), “Are Stock Returns A Leading İndicator For Real Macroeconomic Developments?”, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Department of Economics Working Paper, No 0207.
- Chatrath, Arjun, Sanjay Ramchander and Frank Song (1996), “Stock Prices, İnflation and Output: Evidence From India”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol 7, No 2, s.237-245.
- Chaudhuri, K. ve S. Smiles (2004) “Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity: Evidence From Australia”, Applied Financial Economics, 14(2), s.121-129.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, Richard Roll and Stephen A. Ross (1986), “Economic Forces and The Stock Market”, Journal of Business, Vol 59, No 3, s.383- 403.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong and Lilian K. Ng (1998), “International Evidence on The Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol 5, s.281-296.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay, Shmuel Hauser and J. Kopecky (1999), “Does The Stock Market Predict Real Activity? Time Series Evidence From The G- 7 Countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol 23, s.1771-1792.
- Coşkun, Metin, Fatih Temizel ve Ali Sabri Taylan (2009), “Bankacılık Sektörü Hisse Senedi Getirileri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(7), s.1-18.
- Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, s.427-431.
- Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Econometrica, Vol:49,
- Enders, Walter. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: Wiley.
- Engle, Robert F. ve C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-Intergration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation And Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), s.251-276.
- Fama, Eugene F. (1981), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money”, American Economic Review, Vol 71, No 4, s.545-565.
- Gjerde, Oystein and Frode Saettem (1999), “Causal Relations Among Stock Returns And Macroeconomic Variables In a Small, Open Economy”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Instutions & Money, Vol 9, s.61-74.
- Gong, Fangxiong and Roberto S. Mariano (1997), “Stock Market Returns And Economic Fundamentals In An Emerging Market: The Case of Korea”, Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Vol 4, s.147-169.
- Granger, C. W. J. (1981): "Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification," Journal of Econometrics, s.121-130.
- Gujarati, Damodar N. (2003), Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Guru-Gharan, Kishor Kumar, Matiur Rahman ve Satyanarayana Parayitam (2009), “Influences of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on U.S. Stock Market Returns And Their Predictability Over Varying Time Horizons”, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 13(1), s. 13-31.
- Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Azali Mohamed and Wan Azman Saini Wan Ngah (2000), “Stock Market and Economic Activity: A Causal Analysis”, Universiti Putra Malaysia Faculty of Economics and Management Working Paper, No 5.
- http://www.imfstatistics.org, Erişim:5.1.2010
- http://www.imkb.gov.tr/Data/StocksData.aspx, Erişim:5.1.2010
- Johansen, S. ve K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—With Applications to the Demand for Money” Oxford Bulletin for Economics and Statistic, Vol:52, s.169-210.
- Kwon, Chung S. ve Tai S. Shin (1999), “Cointegration And Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal, Vol 10, No 1, s.71-81.
- Lee, Bong-Soo (1992), “Causal Relations Among Stock Returns, İnterest Rates, Real Activity and Inflation”, Journal of Finance, Vol 47, No 4,
- MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), “Critical Values of Cointegration Tests”, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger (eds.) Long Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Merikas, Andreas G. ve Anna A. Merika (2006), “Stock Prices Response To Real Economic Variables: The Case of Germany”, Managerial Finance, 32(5), p.446-450.
- Mookerjee, Rajen and Qiao Yu (1997), “Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Prices in A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Singapore”, Pasific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol 5, s.377-388.
- Nasseh, Alireza and Jack Strauss (2000), “Stock Prices And Domestic And İnternational Activity: A Cointegration Approach”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 40, s.229-245.
- Padhan, Purna Chandra (2007), “The Nexus Between Stock Market And Economic Activity: An Empirical Analysis For India”, International Journal of Social Economics, 34(10), s.741-753.
- Phillips, P. and Perron, P., 1988, “Testing For A Unit Root In Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, 75, s.333-46.
- Rangvid, Jesper (2001), “Predicting returns and changes in real activity: evidence from emerging economies”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol 2, s.309-329.
- Rasiah, R. Ratneswary V. (2010), “Macroeconomic Activity And The Malaysian Stock Market: Empirical Evidence of Dynamic Relations”, International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 4(2), s.59-69.
- Ratanapakorn, Orawan ve Subhash C. Sharma (2007), “Dynamic Analysis Between The US Stock Returns and The Macroeconomic Variables”, Applied Financial Economics, 17, s.369-377.
- Schwarz, G. (1978). “Estimating the dimension of a model”, Annals of Statistics, 6, s.461-464.
- Schwert, G. William (1990), “Stock Returns And Real Activity: a Century of Evidence”, Journal of Finance, Vol 45, No 4, s.1237-1257.
- Utkulu, Utku; (2001), “Türkiye’de Dış Açıkların Belirleyicileri: Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, Journal of Dokuz Eylül University IIBF, 16(2), s.113-132.
- Wongbangpo, Praphan and Subhash C. Sharma (2002), “Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol 13, s.27-51
- Yılmaz, Ömer, Bener Güngör ve Vedat Kaya (2007), “Hisse senedi fiyatları ve makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik”, İMKB Dergisi, 9(34), s.1-16.
HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI VE REEL EKONOMİK FAALİYETLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI
Yıl 2011,
Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 333 - 348, 01.03.2011
Yrd.doç.dr.ömer İskenderoğlu
Doç.dr.serkan Yılmaz Kandır
Prof.dr.yıldırım Beyazıt Önal
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı, hisse senedi piyasası ile sanayi üretimi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu bağlamda, sanayi üretim endeksi ve İMKB Ulusal Sınai Endeksi arasındaki ilişki Johansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi ve hata düzeltme modeliyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışma Ocak 1991 ve Aralık 2009 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, hisse senedi piyasası ile sanayi üretimi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca Johansen Hata Düzeltme Modeli İMKB Ulusal Sınaî endeksinin tek yönlü olarak sanayi üretim endeksini etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır
Kaynakça
- Akkaya, Ş., Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (1998), Ekonometri I, Econometrics I, Anadolu Matbaacılık, İzmir.
- Aydemir, Oğuzhan (2008), “Hisse Senedi Getirileri ve Reel Sektör Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 10(2), s.37-55.
- Barro, Robert J. (1990), “The Stock Market and Investment”, Review of Financial Studies, 3(1), s. 115-131.
- Binswanger, Mathias (2000), “Stock Market Booms and Real Economic Activity: Is This Time Different?”, International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol 9, s.387-415.
- Burgstaller, Johann (2002), “Are Stock Returns A Leading İndicator For Real Macroeconomic Developments?”, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Department of Economics Working Paper, No 0207.
- Chatrath, Arjun, Sanjay Ramchander and Frank Song (1996), “Stock Prices, İnflation and Output: Evidence From India”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol 7, No 2, s.237-245.
- Chaudhuri, K. ve S. Smiles (2004) “Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity: Evidence From Australia”, Applied Financial Economics, 14(2), s.121-129.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, Richard Roll and Stephen A. Ross (1986), “Economic Forces and The Stock Market”, Journal of Business, Vol 59, No 3, s.383- 403.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong and Lilian K. Ng (1998), “International Evidence on The Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Activity”, Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol 5, s.281-296.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay, Shmuel Hauser and J. Kopecky (1999), “Does The Stock Market Predict Real Activity? Time Series Evidence From The G- 7 Countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol 23, s.1771-1792.
- Coşkun, Metin, Fatih Temizel ve Ali Sabri Taylan (2009), “Bankacılık Sektörü Hisse Senedi Getirileri İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği”, Kocaeli Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(7), s.1-18.
- Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, s.427-431.
- Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller (1981) “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Econometrica, Vol:49,
- Enders, Walter. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: Wiley.
- Engle, Robert F. ve C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-Intergration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation And Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), s.251-276.
- Fama, Eugene F. (1981), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money”, American Economic Review, Vol 71, No 4, s.545-565.
- Gjerde, Oystein and Frode Saettem (1999), “Causal Relations Among Stock Returns And Macroeconomic Variables In a Small, Open Economy”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Instutions & Money, Vol 9, s.61-74.
- Gong, Fangxiong and Roberto S. Mariano (1997), “Stock Market Returns And Economic Fundamentals In An Emerging Market: The Case of Korea”, Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Vol 4, s.147-169.
- Granger, C. W. J. (1981): "Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification," Journal of Econometrics, s.121-130.
- Gujarati, Damodar N. (2003), Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Guru-Gharan, Kishor Kumar, Matiur Rahman ve Satyanarayana Parayitam (2009), “Influences of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on U.S. Stock Market Returns And Their Predictability Over Varying Time Horizons”, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 13(1), s. 13-31.
- Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Azali Mohamed and Wan Azman Saini Wan Ngah (2000), “Stock Market and Economic Activity: A Causal Analysis”, Universiti Putra Malaysia Faculty of Economics and Management Working Paper, No 5.
- http://www.imfstatistics.org, Erişim:5.1.2010
- http://www.imkb.gov.tr/Data/StocksData.aspx, Erişim:5.1.2010
- Johansen, S. ve K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—With Applications to the Demand for Money” Oxford Bulletin for Economics and Statistic, Vol:52, s.169-210.
- Kwon, Chung S. ve Tai S. Shin (1999), “Cointegration And Causality Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal, Vol 10, No 1, s.71-81.
- Lee, Bong-Soo (1992), “Causal Relations Among Stock Returns, İnterest Rates, Real Activity and Inflation”, Journal of Finance, Vol 47, No 4,
- MacKinnon, J.G. (1991), “Critical Values of Cointegration Tests”, in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger (eds.) Long Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
- Merikas, Andreas G. ve Anna A. Merika (2006), “Stock Prices Response To Real Economic Variables: The Case of Germany”, Managerial Finance, 32(5), p.446-450.
- Mookerjee, Rajen and Qiao Yu (1997), “Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Prices in A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Singapore”, Pasific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol 5, s.377-388.
- Nasseh, Alireza and Jack Strauss (2000), “Stock Prices And Domestic And İnternational Activity: A Cointegration Approach”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 40, s.229-245.
- Padhan, Purna Chandra (2007), “The Nexus Between Stock Market And Economic Activity: An Empirical Analysis For India”, International Journal of Social Economics, 34(10), s.741-753.
- Phillips, P. and Perron, P., 1988, “Testing For A Unit Root In Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, 75, s.333-46.
- Rangvid, Jesper (2001), “Predicting returns and changes in real activity: evidence from emerging economies”, Emerging Markets Review, Vol 2, s.309-329.
- Rasiah, R. Ratneswary V. (2010), “Macroeconomic Activity And The Malaysian Stock Market: Empirical Evidence of Dynamic Relations”, International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 4(2), s.59-69.
- Ratanapakorn, Orawan ve Subhash C. Sharma (2007), “Dynamic Analysis Between The US Stock Returns and The Macroeconomic Variables”, Applied Financial Economics, 17, s.369-377.
- Schwarz, G. (1978). “Estimating the dimension of a model”, Annals of Statistics, 6, s.461-464.
- Schwert, G. William (1990), “Stock Returns And Real Activity: a Century of Evidence”, Journal of Finance, Vol 45, No 4, s.1237-1257.
- Utkulu, Utku; (2001), “Türkiye’de Dış Açıkların Belirleyicileri: Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, Journal of Dokuz Eylül University IIBF, 16(2), s.113-132.
- Wongbangpo, Praphan and Subhash C. Sharma (2002), “Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol 13, s.27-51
- Yılmaz, Ömer, Bener Güngör ve Vedat Kaya (2007), “Hisse senedi fiyatları ve makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik”, İMKB Dergisi, 9(34), s.1-16.