REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES

Year 2017, Volume: 22 Issue: 3, 877 - 890, 30.07.2017

Tuncay Çelik Bekir Çelik Doğan Barak

Abstract

Following Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, the relation between economic growth and real exchange rate has become an attention drawing subject in the literature. The existence of a strong relation between economic growth and real exchange rate necessitates the governments to choose the right exchange rate policies for achieving economic growth. This paper investigates the relation between economic growth and real exchange rate via panel data analysis using cross-sectional data of 12 transition economies in Eastern Europe and Middle Asia. The results of the analysis suggest a statistically significant increase in economic growth as the exchance rate decreases. However, real exchange rate movements do not turn out to be the major variable in explaining the economic growth.

Keywords

Growth, real exchange rate, transition economies, panel data

GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİNDE REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Abstract

Literatürde ekonomik büyüme ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki Balassa- Samuelson hipotezinden sonra dikkat çeken bir konu haline gelmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve reel döviz kuru arasında güçlü bir ilişkinin varlığı, hükümetlerin ekonomik büyüme için doğru kur politikaları belirlemelerini gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Doğu Avrupa ve Orta Asya’da yer alan 12 geçiş ekonomisinde 2006-2014 dönemi çapraz kesit verileri kullanılarak panel veri analiziyle ekonomik büyüme reel döviz kuru arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Araştırmamız, bu ülkelerde söz konusu dönemde reel döviz kuru azaldıkça ekonomik büyümenin arttığı ilişkisinin istatistiki olarak anlamlı fakat reel kurdaki hareketlerin büyümeyi açıklamada ana değişken olmadığı sonucunu vermiştir.

Keywords

Büyüme, reel döviz kuru, geçiş ekonomileri, Panel veri

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