The Global Goose Meat Production Quantity Forecast for the 2023–2027 Years

Abstract

This study examines the growing acceptance of goose meat production, its nutritional value, and its varied cultural and gastronomic significance. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global output of goose meat between 2023 and 2027. The investigation was carried out using statistical data websites, such as FAOSTAT. Forecasts for upcoming years were created by combining data on the production of goose meat from 1961 to 2022. The ARIMA model was used to create forecasts, and the most appropriate model was found using the SAS statistical program. Because it outperformed the other models on several metrics, including AIC, BIC, SSE, MSE, SBC, MAE, MAPE, DW, RMSE, HQC, and R2, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was determined to be the most suitable model. It is projected that the amount of goose meat produced worldwide will rise from 150 thousand tons in 1961 to 4 million 751 thousand tons in 2027. A change of -0.019% was computed based on the differences between the average of the 61 years that followed this period and the actual production figures for the 62 years between 1961 and 2022. The current study predicts that global goose meat production will increase by 246.32% in the five years between 2023 and 2027, compared to the average of the previous 62 years. The results of this study, which used advanced statistical methods and market analysis, suggest that goose meat production will increase over the next five years.

Keywords

• Goose meat
• Production
• Forecast
• ARIMA

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