Determination of Natural Risk Sources Effective in Wheat Production in Hadim District with the Help of Linear Programming

Year 2021, Volume: 35 Issue: 1, 1 - 11, 25.04.2021

Yasin Altay İsmail Keskin

Abstract

There are many sources of natural risks affecting wheat cultivation. In this study, it is aimed to estimate the minimum and maximum risk ranges and premium and compensation amounts of the natural risk factors affecting the wheat yield in Hadim district of Konya in terms of farmers and insurance. As natural risk factors, disease and pests, frost, drought, hail, fire and the interactions of other risks and factors were examined.The number of factors dealt with in the study is 6, and the total number of linear models created using all combinations is 63.The 63 linear models established, the minimum and maximum risk ranges in terms of farmers and insurance were determined by using the simplex method of linear programming on the basis of yield and price.In addition, diseases and pests and other risk factors not included in the scope of agricultural insurances were included in the linear models and wheat yield was estimated on district basis.In the model with all risk factors, the expected risk value of the farmer is 64.962 (kg / ha-1) -71.588 (TL / ha-1), while it is estimated as 53.548 (kg / ha-1) -59.009 (TL / ha-1) in terms of insurance. has been. As a result, it was estimated that the farmer paid 20,831 (TL / ha-1) premiums and 122,344 (TL / ha-1), while insurance companies paid 59,009 (TL / ha-1) premium 84,018 (TL / ha-1) compensation.

Keywords

Risk Analysis, Wheat, Linear programming, Simplex algorithm, Hadim