BibTex RIS Cite

PETROL FİYATLARININ MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2007, Volume: 10 Issue: 1-2, 97 - 116, 06.05.2014

Tuncay Çelik Ahmet Çetin

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin üç aylık verileri ile 1997:1-2006:3 dönemleri arasında petrol fiyat şoklarının GSYİH, faiz, Tüfe, cari işlem açık ve borsa endeksi üzerindeki etkileri VAR modeli kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar petrol şoklarının seçilmiş tüm değişkenler üzerinde etkili olduğu yönündedir. Petrol şokları Tüfe, cari işlem açığı ve borsa endeksinin yükselmesine neden olurken GSYİH değerinin ve faiz oranını düşürmektedir.

Keywords

Petrol fiyatları; VAR; Türkiye ekonomisi

References

  • Basher, S. A. and Sadosky, P. (2006), “Oil Price Risk and Emerging Stock
  • Markets”, Global Finance Journal, V: 17(2), pp.224—251. Berument, H. and Taşçı, H. (2002), “Inşationary Effects of Crude Oil Prices in
  • Turkey”, Physica A-Statistical Mechanics and İts Applications”, V.316(1-4),pp.568-580. Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Gertler, ve Mark Watson (1997), “Systematic Monetary
  • Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1—1997, 8. 91-124.
  • Bohi, Douglas R. (1991), “On the Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price
  • Shocks,” Resources and Energy, 13, s. 145—162 Burbidge, John, ve Alan Harrison (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price
  • Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,” International Economic- Review, 25, s. 459-484. Carruth, Alan A., Mark A. Hooker, ve Andrew J. Oswald (1998),
  • “Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United—States,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, s. 621-628. Darby, M. R. (1982), “The Price of Oil and World Inşation and Recession”,
  • American Economic Review, 72(4), 8.738—751. Davis, S. J. ve John Haltiwanger (2001), “Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Re sponses to Oil Price Changes,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48, s. 465—512.
  • Dotsey, Michael, ve Max Reid (1992), “Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity,” Economic Review of the Federal Reserve
  • Bank of Richmond, 78/4, s. 14-27. EIA (2005), World Oil Market and Oil Price Chronolgies 1970-2004, (eia.doe.gov)
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York:Wiley.
  • Engle,R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J.(1987),“Cointegration and Error Correction:
  • Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 50, 987- Gisser, Micha, ve Thomas H. Goodwin (1986), “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions,” Journal of
  • Money, Credit, and Banking, 18, 8. 95—103. Hamilton, James D. (1983), “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War 11,”
  • Journal of Political Economy, 91, s. 228—248. (2001), “A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear
  • Inference”, Econometrica, 69, s. 119—137. (2003), “What is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113, s. 398.
  • Hooker, Mark A. (2002), “Are Oil Shocks Inşationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear SpeciŞcations versus Changes in Regime,” Journal of
  • Money, Credit and Banking, 34, s. 540—561. Jimenez-Rodriguez, R., ve M. Sanchez (2005), “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP
  • Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries,” Applied Economics, 37 (2), s. 201-228. Kibritçioğlu, A. ve Kibritçioğlu, B. (1999), Ham Petrol ve Akaryakıt iiriinii Fiyat
  • Artışlarının Turkıye ’deki Enflasyonist Etkileri, Hazine Müst. Ekon. Araş. Gen. Müd. Araş. lnc. Dizisi, Ankara. Labonte, M (2004) The Efects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economy: A Review of the Emprical Evidence, CRS Report, RL31608.
  • Lee, Kiseok; Shawn N. ve Ronald A. Ratti (1995), “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomszhe Role of Price Variability,” Energy Journal, , s. 39 56.
  • Mork, Knut A (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton S Results, ” Journal of Political Economy, 91, S. 740— 744. Pamir, N .(2006) http://www.dektmk.org.tr/Elektronikbulten/6.sayi/NecdetPamir. doc (27/06/2006) ,
  • Rasche, R. H., ve J. A. Tatom (1977), “Energy. Resources and Potential GNP,” Federal
  • Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59 (June), s. 10—24. Raymond, Jennie E., ve Robert W. Rich (1997), “Oil and the Macroeconomy: A
  • Markov State—Switching Approach,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(May), 8.193—213. Erratum 29 (November, Part , 1), 8.555. Rotemberg, Julio J., ve Michael Woodford (1996), “Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases, ” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28 (part 1), 5.549—577. ,
  • Smith, D. J. (1993), "Energy Prices and the Aggregate Production Function,"
  • Petrol fiyatları dolar olarak ifade edilerek analiz tekrarlandığında sadece petrol fiyatlarının TÜFE üzerindeki etkisi bulunamamış, diğer tüm değişkenlerle olan ilişkiler aynı kalmıştır. Fakat buna rağmen “petrol fiyatları YTL’ye dönüştürüldüğünde TÜFE üzerinde etkili olmaktadır” gibi bir tespit diğer tüm etkileri yok saymak olur. İlk dönemin aritmetik ortalaması 16,8 ve standart sapması 2,9 iken ikinci dönemde aritmetik ortalama 24,7 standart sapma ise 10,5 olarak gerçekleşmiştir.

Year 2007, Volume: 10 Issue: 1-2, 97 - 116, 06.05.2014

Tuncay Çelik Ahmet Çetin

Abstract

References

  • Basher, S. A. and Sadosky, P. (2006), “Oil Price Risk and Emerging Stock
  • Markets”, Global Finance Journal, V: 17(2), pp.224—251. Berument, H. and Taşçı, H. (2002), “Inşationary Effects of Crude Oil Prices in
  • Turkey”, Physica A-Statistical Mechanics and İts Applications”, V.316(1-4),pp.568-580. Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Gertler, ve Mark Watson (1997), “Systematic Monetary
  • Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1—1997, 8. 91-124.
  • Bohi, Douglas R. (1991), “On the Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price
  • Shocks,” Resources and Energy, 13, s. 145—162 Burbidge, John, ve Alan Harrison (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price
  • Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,” International Economic- Review, 25, s. 459-484. Carruth, Alan A., Mark A. Hooker, ve Andrew J. Oswald (1998),
  • “Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United—States,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, s. 621-628. Darby, M. R. (1982), “The Price of Oil and World Inşation and Recession”,
  • American Economic Review, 72(4), 8.738—751. Davis, S. J. ve John Haltiwanger (2001), “Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Re sponses to Oil Price Changes,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 48, s. 465—512.
  • Dotsey, Michael, ve Max Reid (1992), “Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity,” Economic Review of the Federal Reserve
  • Bank of Richmond, 78/4, s. 14-27. EIA (2005), World Oil Market and Oil Price Chronolgies 1970-2004, (eia.doe.gov)
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York:Wiley.
  • Engle,R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J.(1987),“Cointegration and Error Correction:
  • Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 50, 987- Gisser, Micha, ve Thomas H. Goodwin (1986), “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions,” Journal of
  • Money, Credit, and Banking, 18, 8. 95—103. Hamilton, James D. (1983), “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War 11,”
  • Journal of Political Economy, 91, s. 228—248. (2001), “A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear
  • Inference”, Econometrica, 69, s. 119—137. (2003), “What is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113, s. 398.
  • Hooker, Mark A. (2002), “Are Oil Shocks Inşationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear SpeciŞcations versus Changes in Regime,” Journal of
  • Money, Credit and Banking, 34, s. 540—561. Jimenez-Rodriguez, R., ve M. Sanchez (2005), “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP
  • Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries,” Applied Economics, 37 (2), s. 201-228. Kibritçioğlu, A. ve Kibritçioğlu, B. (1999), Ham Petrol ve Akaryakıt iiriinii Fiyat
  • Artışlarının Turkıye ’deki Enflasyonist Etkileri, Hazine Müst. Ekon. Araş. Gen. Müd. Araş. lnc. Dizisi, Ankara. Labonte, M (2004) The Efects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economy: A Review of the Emprical Evidence, CRS Report, RL31608.
  • Lee, Kiseok; Shawn N. ve Ronald A. Ratti (1995), “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomszhe Role of Price Variability,” Energy Journal, , s. 39 56.
  • Mork, Knut A (1989), “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton S Results, ” Journal of Political Economy, 91, S. 740— 744. Pamir, N .(2006) http://www.dektmk.org.tr/Elektronikbulten/6.sayi/NecdetPamir. doc (27/06/2006) ,
  • Rasche, R. H., ve J. A. Tatom (1977), “Energy. Resources and Potential GNP,” Federal
  • Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59 (June), s. 10—24. Raymond, Jennie E., ve Robert W. Rich (1997), “Oil and the Macroeconomy: A
  • Markov State—Switching Approach,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(May), 8.193—213. Erratum 29 (November, Part , 1), 8.555. Rotemberg, Julio J., ve Michael Woodford (1996), “Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases, ” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28 (part 1), 5.549—577. ,
  • Smith, D. J. (1993), "Energy Prices and the Aggregate Production Function,"
  • Petrol fiyatları dolar olarak ifade edilerek analiz tekrarlandığında sadece petrol fiyatlarının TÜFE üzerindeki etkisi bulunamamış, diğer tüm değişkenlerle olan ilişkiler aynı kalmıştır. Fakat buna rağmen “petrol fiyatları YTL’ye dönüştürüldüğünde TÜFE üzerinde etkili olmaktadır” gibi bir tespit diğer tüm etkileri yok saymak olur. İlk dönemin aritmetik ortalaması 16,8 ve standart sapması 2,9 iken ikinci dönemde aritmetik ortalama 24,7 standart sapma ise 10,5 olarak gerçekleşmiştir.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Tuncay Çelik This is me

Ahmet Çetin This is me

Publication Date May 6, 2014
Submission Date December 31, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2007 Volume: 10 Issue: 1-2

Cite

APA Çelik, T., & Çetin, A. (2014). PETROL FİYATLARININ MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR UYGULAMA. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 10(1-2), 97-116.

Journal of Selçuk University Social Sciences Vocational School is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY NC).