2008 Küresel Finans Krizi Sonrasında Sermaye Kontrollerine İlişkin Tartışmalar

Year 2020, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 513 - 529, 30.11.2020

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.673431

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Küresel Kriz sonrası sermaye kontrollerine dair teorik ve ampirik literatürün gözden geçirilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Küresel Kriz sonrasında ortaya çıkan teorik literatür, konjonktür karşıtı uygulanan ihtiyati sermaye kontrollerinin, makroekonomik ve finansal istikrarı artırabileceğini savunmaktadır. Aynı dönemde gelişen ampirik literatürde, sermaye kontrollerinin genellikle konjonktür karşıtı kullanılmadığı, fakat Kriz sonrası dönemde bazı ülkelerin kontrolleri konjonktür karşıtı biçimde uygulamayı başardıkları tespit ediliyor. Ayrıca sermaye kontrollerinin hem ihtiyati hem de merkantilist amaçla kullanıldığı, fakat Kriz sonrasında ihtiyati güdünün payının arttığı bulgusuna ulaşılıyor. Çalışmaların çoğunda, sermaye kontrollerinin sermaye girişlerinin bileşimini değiştirmede, para politikası özerkliğini artırmada ve finansal kırılganlıkları hafifletmede etkili olduğu kanıtlanıyor. İlave olarak çok sayıda çalışma, kontrollerin sermaye girişlerinin hacmini ve döviz kuru baskılarını azaltabileceğini buluyor. Diğer yandan, sermaye kontrollerinin diğer ülkeler üzerinde olumsuz yayılma etkilerine yol açabileceği gösteriliyor.

Keywords

Sermaye Kontrolleri, Sermaye Akımları, Finansal İstikrar, Makroekonomik İstikrar

References

• Ahmed, S. & Zlate, A. (2014). “Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221 - 248.
• Aizenman, J. & Binici, M. (2016). “Exchange Market Pressure in OECD and Emerging Economies: Domestic vs. External Factors and Capital Flows in the Old and New Normal”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 65–87.
• Baba, C. & Kokenyne, A. (2011). “Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000s”. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/281.
• Benigno,G., Chen, H., Otrok, C., Rebucci, A. & Young, E.R. (2013). “Financial Crises and Macro-prudential Policies”. Journal of International Economics, 89(2), 453–470.
• Benigno, G., Chen, H., Otrok, C., Rebucci, A. & Young, E.R. (2014). “Capital Control or Exchange Rate Policy? A Pecuniary Externality Perspective”. CEPR Discussion Paper, No:9936.
• Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S. (1999).” The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework”. Taylor, J. & Woodford, M. içinde, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam, Elsevier Science, 1341-1393.
• Bianchi, J. (2011). “Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle”. American Economic Review, 101, 3400–3426.
• Bianchi, J. & Mendoza, E. (2010). “Overborrowing, Financial crises and Macro-prudential Taxes”. NBER Working Paper, No.16091.
• Boero, G., Mandalinci, Z. & Taylor, M. (2019). “Modelling Portfolio Capital Flows in a Global Framework: Multilateral Implications of Capital Controls”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 90, 142-160.
• Bruno, V. & Shin, H.S. (2014). “Assessing Macroprudential Policies: Case of South Korea”. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 116 (1), 128–157.
• Bruno, V., Shim, I. & Shin, H. S. (2017). “Comparative Assessment of Macroprudential Policies”. Journal of Financial Stability, 28, 183–202.
• Cardoso, E. & Goldfajn, I. (1998). “Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls”. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 161-202.
• Chamon, M. & Garcia, M. (2016). “Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective?”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 61, 163–187.
• Costinot, A, Lorenzoni, G. & Werning, I. (2014). “A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-trade Manipulation”. Journal of Political Economy, 122(1), 77–128.
• Dell’Erba, S. & Reinhardt, D. (2015). “FDI, Debt and Capital controls”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 58, 29–50.
• Dooley, M. Folkerts-Landau, D. & Garber, P. (2004). “The Revived Bretton Woods System”. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9(4), 307–313.
• Dooley, M. Folkerts-Landau, D. & Garber, P. (2014). “The Revived Bretton Woods System's First Decade”. NBER Working Paper, No:20454.
• Eichengreen B. & Rose, A. (2014). “Capital Controls in the 21st Century”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 1-16.
• Engel, C. (2016). “Macroprudential Policy Under High Capital Mobility: Policy Implications from an Academic Perspective”. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 42, 162–172
• Erten, B. & Ocampo, J.A. (2017). “Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Regulations”. IMF Economic Review, 65(2), 193-240.
• Farhi, E. & Werning, I. (2012). “Dealing With the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates”. NBER Working Paper, No:18199.
• Fernandez, A., Rebucci, A. & Uribe, M. (2015). “Are Capital Controls Countercyclical?”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 76, 1–14.
• Fernandez, A., Klein, M.W., Rebucci, A., Schindler, M. & Uribe, M. (2015). Capital control measures: a new dataset. NBER Working Paper, No. 20970.
• Forbes, K.J., Fratzscher, M. & Straub, R. (2015). “Capital-flow Management Measures: What are They Good for?”. Journal of International Economics, 96, S76–S97.
• Forbes, K.J., Fratzscher, M., Kostka, T. & Straub, R. (2016). “Bubble thy Neighbour: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls”. Journal of International Economics, 99, 85–104.
• G20 (2011). G20 Coherent Conclusions for the Management of Capital Flows Drawing on Country Experiences, as Endorsed by G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, October 15, 2011.
• Gertler, M., Gilchrist, S. & Natalucci, F.M. (2007). “External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3), 295-330.
• Ghosh, A.R., Qureshi, M.S. & Sugawara, N. (2014). “Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends: Does it work?”. IMF Working Paper, WP/14/188.
• Giordani, P.E., Ruta, M., Weisfeld, H. & Zhu, L. (2017). “Capital Flow Deflection”. Journal of International Economics, 105, 102–118.
• Gupta, P. & Masetti, O. (2018). “Capital Flow Measures: Structural or Cyclical Policy Tools?”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No:8418.
• Heathcote, J. & Perri, F. (2016). “On the Desirability of Capital Controls”. IMF Economic Review, 64(1), 75-102.
• IMF (2012). The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows: An Institutional View. International Monetary Fund, Washington.
• Jeanne, O. (2012). “Capital Flow Management”. American Economic Review, Pap. Proc. 102: 203–206.
• Jeanne, O. & Korinek, A. (2013). “Macroprudential Regulation versus Mopping up After the Crash”. NBER Working Paper, No.18675.
• Jongwanich, J. (2019). Capital controls in emerging East Asia: How do they affect investment flows?. Journal of Asian Economics, 62, 17–38.
• Kaminsky, G.L., Reinhart, C.M. & Vegh, C.A. (2004). “When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies”. NBER Working Paper, No.10780.
• Kiyotaki, N. & Moore, J. (1997). “Credit Cycles”. Journal of Political Economy, 105(2), 211-248.
• Korinek, A. (2011). “The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda”. IMF Economic Review, 59(3), 523–561.
• Korinek, A. & Sandri, D. (2016). “Capital Controls or Macroprudential Regulation?”. Journal of International Economics, 99, S27–S42.
• Lambert, F., Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C. (2013). “Capital Controls and Spillover Effects: Evidence from Latin-American Countries”. Banque de France Working Paper, No:357.
• Li, J. & Rajan, R.S. (2015). “Do Capital Controls Make Gross Equity Flows to Emerging Markets Less Volatile?”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 59, 220–244.
• Magud, N., Reinhart, C. & Rogoff, K. (2011). “Capital Controls: Myth and Reality- A Portfolio Balance Approach”. NBER Working Paper, No. 16805.
• Mendoza, E. G. (2010). “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage”. The American Economic Review, 100(5), 1941-1966.
• Montiel, P. & Reinhart, C. (1999). “Do Capital Controls and Macroeconomic Policies Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital Flows? Evidence from the 1990s”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18(4), 619-635.
• Ostry, J.D., Ghosh, A.R., Habermeier, K., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M. & Reinhardt, D. (2010). “Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls”. IMF Staff Position Note, 10/04.
• Ostry, J.D., Ghosh, A.R., Chamon, M. & Qureshi, M. (2012). “Tools for Managing Financial Stability Risks from Capital Inflows”. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 407–421.
• Pasricha, G. (2012). "Recent Trends in Measures to Manage Capital Flows in Emerging Economies”. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23, 286– 309.
• Pasricha, G. (2017). “Policy Rules for Capital Controls”. Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper, No:42.
• Pasricha, G., Falagiarda, M., Bijsterbosch, M. & Aizenman, J. (2018). “Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets”. Journal of International Economics, 115, 48–58.
• Reinhart, C.M. ve Rogoff, K.S. (2009). Bu Defa Farklı: Finansal Çılgınlığın 800 Yıllık Tarihi. .NTV Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M. (2016). “Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment”. Journal of Political Economy, 124(5), 1476-1514.
• Van der Laan, C. R., Cunha, A. M., & Lelis, M. T. C. (2017). On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007-2013). Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 40(2), 203–222.
• You, Y., Kim, Y. & Ren, X. (2014). Do Capital Controls Enhance Monetary Independence?. Review of Development Economics, 18(3), 475–489.
• Zeev, N.B. (2017). “Capital Controls as Shock Absorbers”. Journal of International Economics, 109, 43-67.
• Zhang, L. & Zoli, E. (2016). “Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia”. Journal of Asian Economics, 42, 33–52.