Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Dalgalanmaların Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Havayolu Şirketleri Örneği

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 225 - 243, 30.04.2024

Nuray Yuzbaşıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1423329

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ham petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senedi fiyatları üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmaya konu olan Türkiye ve Avrupa'da faaliyet gösteren bazı havayolu şirketlerine (Türk Havayolları, Air France, Swiss International Air Lines, Lufthansa, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Finnair, Aegean Airlines, Yunanistan ) ait hisse senedi verileri “investing.com” veri tabanından, ham petrol fiyatları ise “OECD i Library” veri tabanından temin edilmiştir. 2012-2022 dönemine ait veriler, zaman serisi analizi yöntemiyle ARDL modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada ADF (Augmentend Dickey-Fuller) birim kök testi, ARDL Sınır testi, uzun dönem denge modeli testi, hata düzeltme modeli testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, ham petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların çalışmada analiz edilen havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senetleri fiyatları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermiştir. Dolayısıyla ham petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların Türkiye ve analize konu olan bazı Avrupa havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senetleri fiyatları üzerinde bir etki yarattığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, hem yatırımcılar hem de finansal uzmanların havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senedi fiyatları üzerindeki riskleri ve etkileri daha iyi anlayabilmelerine ve gelecekteki kararlarını daha iyi şekillendirmelerine katkı sağlayacaktır.

Keywords

Ham Petrol Fiyatları, Hisse Senetleri, Havayolu Şirketleri, Getiri, Panel Veri Analizi

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Prices: An Example of Airline Companies

Abstract

In this study, the aim is to determine the impact of fluctuations in crude oil prices on the stock prices of airline companies. The stock data of some airline companies operating in Turkey and Europe (Turkish Airlines, Air France, Swiss International Air Lines, Lufthansa, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Finnair, Aegean Airlines, Greece) were obtained from the "investing.com" database, while crude oil prices were obtained from the "OECD i Library" database. Data for the period 2012-2022 were analyzed using the time series analysis method with the ARDL model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, ARDL Bounds test, long-run equilibrium model test, and error correction model test were applied to forecast the results. The findings indicate a statistically significant cointegration relationship between fluctuations in crude oil prices and the stock prices of the analyzed airline companies. Therefore, based on the forecast results, it has been concluded that fluctuations in crude oil prices have an impact on the stock prices of some European airline companies analyzed, as well as those in Turkey. These results will contribute to both investors and financial experts in better understanding the risks and effects on airline stock prices, thus enabling them to shape their future decisions more effectively

Keywords

Crude Oil Prices,, Stocks, Airlines, Return, Time Series Analysis

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