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Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne Uyumu: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2013, Volume: 1 Issue: 4, 15 - 42, 01.10.2013

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne girmesi ya da girmemesi gerekliliğini geleneksel panel veri modellerini kullanarak çözmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın temel sorusu, Türkiye Avrupa Parasal Birliği’ne girmeli mi girmemeli mi şeklinde formüle edilebilir. Sorunun çözümü için endüstri-içi ticaret ve sendikalaşma temel değişkenler; şehirleşme ve kamu borcu ise kontrol değişkenleri olarak alınmıştır. Bu verilere ilişkin olarak 1995-2010 yılları arasında Grubel-Lloyd Endeksi, sendika üye sayıları; şehirlerde yaşayan nüfus ve kamu borç miktarı verileri baz alınarak panel veri analizi uygulanmış ve söz konusu değişkenlerin reel GSYİH üzerindeki etkisi test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, şehirleşme dışında, endüstri-içi ticaret, sendikalaşma ve kamu borçları açısından Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne üye olmasını destekler niteliktedir.

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Turkey’s Adjustment To Euro Area: Panel Data Analysis

Year 2013, Volume: 1 Issue: 4, 15 - 42, 01.10.2013

Abstract

This study intends to solve the necessity whether Turkey will become a membership of Euro Area by making use of traditional panel data models. The problem with such question can be stated if Turkey becomes a membership of Euro Area or not. In order to solve the problem, intra-industry trade and trade unionization are selected as main variables; urbanization and government debt are selected as control variables. Related to these variables, panel data analysis based on Grubel-Lloyd Index, number of trade union member, urban population and amount of the public debt is analyzed and effect of these variables are tested on real GDP. The findings obtained support Turkey’s membership of Euro Area in terms of intra-industry trade, unionization and government debt except urbanization

References

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  • Akiba, H., ve Iida, Y. (2009), Monetary Unions and Endogeneity of The OCA Criteria. Global Economic Review, 38(1), 101-116.
  • Alada, A. D. (2000), ktisat Felsefesi ve Belirsizlik, Ba lam Yay nlar , stanbul.
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  • Berg, H. V. (2004), International Economics, McGraw Hill, New York.
  • Biçerli, M. K. (2007), Çal ma ekonomisi, Beta Yay nc k, stanbul.
  • Bordo, M., ve James, H. (2006), One World Money, Then and Now. National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, NBER Working Paper Series, Cambridge.
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  • Braudel, F. (1993), Maddi Uygarl k Ekonomi ve Kapitalizm XV. ve XVIII. Yüzy llar Gündelik Hayat n Yap lar (Cilt I). (M. A. K çbay, Çev.) Gece Yay nlar . Ankara.
  • Broz, L., ve Frieden, J. A. (2001), The Political Economy of International Monetary Relations. Annual Review of Political Science, 4.
  • Brülhart, M. (1994), Marginal Intra-industry Trade: Measurement and Relevance for The Pattern of Industrial Adjustment. Review of World Economics, 130(3), 600-613.
  • Busch, M. L., ve Milner, H. V. (1994), The future of the international trading system: International firms, regionalism and domestic politics. R. Stubbs, & G. R. Underhill içinde, Political Economy and The Changing Global Order (s. 259-276). New York: St. Martin's Press.
  • Ceserano, F. (2006a), Optimum Currency Areas: A Policy View. BNL Quarterly Review, 59(239), 317-332.
  • Ceserano, F. (2006b), The Equilibrium Approach to Optimum Currency Areas. BNL Quarterly Review, 59(237), 203-220.
  • Chey, H.-k. (2009), A Political Economic Critique on The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas and Implications for East Asia. The World Economy, 32(12), 1685-1705.
  • Dixit, A. K., ve Stiglitz, J. E. (1977), Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. The American Economic Review, 67(3), 297-308.
  • Eichengreen , B. ve Frieden, J. A. (2001), The Political Economy of European Monetary Unification: An Analytical Introduction, The Political Economy of European Monetary Unification (s. 1-35), Editörler: B. Eichengreen, & J. A. Frieden, Westview Press.
  • Emerson, M., Gros, D., Italiener, A., Pisani-Ferry, J.ve Reichenbach, H. (1992), One Market One Money an Evaluation of The Potential Benefits and Costs of Forming an Economic and Monetary Union, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Fleming, J. M. (1971), On Exchange Rate Unification. The Economic Journal, 81(323), 467-488.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1999), No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times. National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series, Cambridge.
  • Frankel, J. A., ve Rose, A. K. (1998), The Endogeneity of The Optimum Currency Area Criteria. The Economic Journal, 108, 1009-1025.
  • Fidrmuc, J., Ikeda, T. ve Iwatsubo, K. (2012), International Transmission of Business Cycles: Evidence from Dynamic Correlations, Economic Letters(114), 252-255.
  • Gerber, J. (2005), International Economics, Pearson Addison Wesley, Boston.
  • Giddens, A. (2004), Modernli in Sonuçlar . Çev. E. Ku dil. Ayr nt Yay nlar . stanbul.
  • Gill, I. S.ve Goh, C.-C. (2010). Scale Economies and Cities. The World Bank Research Observer, 25(2), 235-262.
  • Goodhart, C. E. (1995), The Political Economy of Monetary Union, Understanding Interdependence The Macroeconomics of The Open Economy (s. 448-508), Editör: P. B. Kenen, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  • Grauwe, P. (2007), Economics of Monetary Union, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Grauwe, P. (2006), What have We Learnt about Monetary Integration since The Maastricht Treaty? Journal of Common Market Studies, 44(4), 711-730.
  • Grauwe, P. (1997). The Economics of MonetaryIintegration, Oxford university Press, Oxford.
  • Greenaway, D., Hine, R. C., Milner, C.ve Elliott, R. (1994), Adjustment and The Measurement of marginal Intra-industry Trade. Review of World Economics, 130(2), 418-427.
  • Greenaway , D. ve Hine, R. C. (1991), Intra-industry Specialization, Trade Expansion and Adjustment in European Economic Space, Journal of Common Market Studies, 29(6), 603-622.
  • Greenaway, D. (1987), Intra-industry Trade, Intra-firm Trade and European Integration: Evidence, Gains and Policy Aspects, Journal of Common Market Studies, 26(2), 153-171.
  • Grubel, H. G. ve Lloyd, P. J. (1971), The Emprical Measurement of Intra- industry Trade, Economic Record, 47, 494-517.
  • Grubel, H. G. (1967), Intra-industry Specialization and The Pattern of Trade, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 33(3), 374- 378.
  • Gujarati, D. (2011), Econometrics by Example, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
  • Hamilton, C. ve Kniest, P. (1991), Trade Liberalisation, Structural Adjustment and Intra-industry Trade: A Note, Review of World Economics, 127(2), 356-367.
  • Harvey, D. (2010), Postmodernli in Durumu Kültürel De (S. Savran, Çev.), Metis Yay nlar , stanbul. imin Kökenleri
  • Inklaar, R., Jong-A-Pin, R. ve de Haan, J. (2008), Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries-A Re-examination, European Economic Review, 52, 646-666.
  • Ishiyama, Y. (1975), The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: A Survey, International Monetary Funds Staff Papers, 22(2), 344-383.
  • Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sorensen, B. E. ve Yosha, O. (2004), Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy
  • mplications for Europe, CEPR Discussion Papers No: 4463. London.
  • Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sorensen, B. E. ve Yosha, O. (2001). Economic Integration, Industrial Specialization and The Asymmetry of Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Journal of International Economics, 55 (1), 107-137.
  • Kar, M. (2003), Avrupa Para Birli i ve Ortak Para Politikas , Avrupa Birli i Ortak Politikalar ve Türkiye Ekonomik, Sosyal ve Siyasal Politikalar n Uyumla Yay nc k, stanbul.
  • Karluk, S. R. (2013), Uluslararas Ekonomi Teori ve Politika, Beta Yay nlar , stanbul.
  • Kawai, M. (1987), Optimum Currency Areas, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economic Theory and Doctrine, Editörler: J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, ve P. Newman, The Macmillan Press, London.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ragıp Yılmaz This is me

Publication Date October 1, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 1 Issue: 4

Cite

ISNAD Yılmaz, Ragıp. “Türkiye’nin Euro Bölgesi’ne Uyumu: Panel Veri Analizi”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 1/4 (October 2013), 15-42.