Research Article

THE FORCE OF RUIN

Volume: 36 Number: 2 June 1, 2018
  • Şule Şahin
  • Başak Bulut Karageyik

THE FORCE OF RUIN

Abstract

This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small time intervals. We call this function as the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then, we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behaviour of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords

References

  1. [1] Asmussen, S. (1984) Approximations for the Probability of Ruin within Finite Time. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, vol:1984, 31–57.
  2. [2] Asmussen, S., Albrecher, H. (2010) Ruin Probabilities; Advanced Series on Statistical Science & Applied Probability, World Scientific.
  3. [3] Burnecki, K., Teuerle, M. (2005) Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance, 2nd Edition; Springer: Berlin, Chapter Ruin Probability in Finite Time, 341–379.
  4. [4] Delbaen, F. (1990) A Remark on the Moments of Ruin Time in Classical Risk Theory. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 9, 121 – 126.
  5. [5] De Vylder, F. (1978) A Practical Solution to the Problem of Ultimate Ruin Probability. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 114–119.
  6. [6] Dickson, D.C.M., Waters, H.R. (1993) Gamma Processes and Finite Time Survival Probabilities. ASTIN Bulletin 23, 259–272.
  7. [7] Dickson, D.C.M., Waters, H.R. (2002) The Distribution of the Time to Ruin in the Classical Risk Model. ASTIN Bulletin 32 (2), 299–313.
  8. [8] Dickson, D.C. M. (2005) Insurance Risk and Ruin, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Başak Bulut Karageyik This is me
0000-0002-8998-109X
United Kingdom

Publication Date

June 1, 2018

Submission Date

May 12, 2017

Acceptance Date

January 9, 2018

Published in Issue

Year 2018 Volume: 36 Number: 2

APA
Şahin, Ş., & Bulut Karageyik, B. (2018). THE FORCE OF RUIN. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 36(2), 563-575. https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ
AMA
1.Şahin Ş, Bulut Karageyik B. THE FORCE OF RUIN. SIGMA. 2018;36(2):563-575. https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ
Chicago
Şahin, Şule, and Başak Bulut Karageyik. 2018. “THE FORCE OF RUIN”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 36 (2): 563-75. https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ.
EndNote
Şahin Ş, Bulut Karageyik B (June 1, 2018) THE FORCE OF RUIN. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 36 2 563–575.
IEEE
[1]Ş. Şahin and B. Bulut Karageyik, “THE FORCE OF RUIN”, SIGMA, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 563–575, June 2018, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ
ISNAD
Şahin, Şule - Bulut Karageyik, Başak. “THE FORCE OF RUIN”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 36/2 (June 1, 2018): 563-575. https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ.
JAMA
1.Şahin Ş, Bulut Karageyik B. THE FORCE OF RUIN. SIGMA. 2018;36:563–575.
MLA
Şahin, Şule, and Başak Bulut Karageyik. “THE FORCE OF RUIN”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, vol. 36, no. 2, June 2018, pp. 563-75, https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ.
Vancouver
1.Şule Şahin, Başak Bulut Karageyik. THE FORCE OF RUIN. SIGMA [Internet]. 2018 Jun. 1;36(2):563-75. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA83FJ42UJ

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