Kapitalizmin Finansallaşma Sürecinde Önemli Bir Sorun Olarak İşsizlik: Tartışma ve Analiz

Year 2019, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 73 - 97, 31.03.2019

Umut Üzar

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1980’li yıllarla birlikte etkisini önemli ölçüde artıran finansallaşma olgusu ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesidir. Bu çerçevede öncelikle finansallaşmanın hangi kanallar üzerinden işsizliği etkileyebileceği tartışmasına yer verilmiş ve iki değişken arasındaki potansiyel bağlantılar aydınlatılmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda verisi elde edilen 9 gelişmiş OECD ülkesinin 1980-2015 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kullanılarak ampirik analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik analiz çerçevesinde öncelikle delta testi ile değişkenlerin eğim katsayısının homojenliği test edilmiş, sonrasında yatay kesit bağımlılık sınaması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Uygun birim kök testi ile serilerin durağanlık mertebesinin belirlenmesinin ardından Westerlund eşbütünleşme ve Dumitrescu ve Hurlin nedensellik analizleriyle değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ve nedensellik araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, finansallaşma ve işsizlik oranı arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve çift yönlü bir nedenselliğin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Böylece finansal faaliyetlerin boyutu işsizliği, işsizlikteki değişimler de finansal kanallara olan bağımlılığı etkilemektedir. 

Keywords

Finansallaşma, İşsizlik, Politik ekonomi, Makroekonomik politikalar, Panel veri analizi

Unemployment as a Significant Problem in the Process of Finance-dominated Capitalism: Debate and Analysis

Abstract

This study aims at revealing the relationship between unemployment and the phenomenon of financialization which has significantly increased its impact of the 1980s. Within this framework, firstly, the ways which financialization may affect unemployment was discussed and the potential relationship between these two variables was tried to be elicited. In this context, the empirical analysis was conducted by using annual data, obtained confidently, for 1980-2015 period of nine developed OECD countries. Within the scope of the empirical analysis, the homogeneity of slope coefficient of the variables was tested on the basis of delta test, and then cross-sectional dependency test was carried out. After the determination of the order of stationarity of the series by employing unit root-test, the long-term relationship and the causality between the variables was investigated by Westerlund co-integration and Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analyses. According to the results obtained, there is a long-term co-integration and bi-directional causality between financialization and unemployment. Thus, size of financial activity effects unemployment and changes in unemployment also effects the dependency on financial channels. 

Keywords

Financialization, Unemployment, Political economy, Macroeconomic policy, Panel data analysis

References

• Akyüz, Y., & Boratav, K. (2003). The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis. World Development, Vol. 31, No. 9, 1549–1566.
• Argitis, G., & Michopoulou, S. (2011). Are Full Employment and Social Cohesion Possible Under Financialization?. Forum for Social Economics, Volume 40, Issue 2, 139–155.
• Assa, J. (2012). Financialization and its Consequences: the OECD Experience. Finance Research, Vol. 1, No. 1, 35-39.
• Aytun, C., & Akın, C. S. (2014). OECD Ülkelerinde Telekomünikasyon Altyapısı ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Yatay Kesit Bağımlı Heterojen Panel Nedensellik Analizi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 29(340), 69-94.
• Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
• Bivens, J., & Weller, C. (2004). Institutional Shareholder Concentration, Corporate Governance Changes and Diverging Fortunes of Capital and Labor. mimeo.
• Bonizzi, B. (2013). Financialization in Developing and Emerging Countries. International Journal of Political Economy, 42 (4), 83-107.
• Boyer, R. (2000). Is a finance-led growth regime a viable alternative to Fordism? A preliminary analysis. Economy and Society, vol. 29, no. 1, 111–45.
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Dallery, T. (2009). Post-Keynesian Theories of the Firm under Financialization. Review of Radical Political Economics, 41, 492–515.
• Darcillon, T. (2015). How does finance affect labor market institutions? An empirical analysis in 16 OECD countries. Socio-Economic Review, Vol. 13, No. 3, 477–504.
• Demir, F. (2008). Financial Liberalization, Private Investment and Portfolio Choice: Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets. MPRA (Munich Personal RePEc Archive). Working Papers, Paper No: 8167, 1-35. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8167/. Erişim: 16.04.2018.
• Doğanay, A., & Değer, M.K. (2017). Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve İhracat İlişkisi: Panel veri Eşbütünleşme Analizleri (1996-2014). Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 7, Sayı 2, 127-145.
• Dögüs, İlhan. (2018). Wage dispersion and pension funds: Financialisation of non-financial corporations in the USA. PSL Quarterly Review, 71(284): 41-59.
• Dumitrescu, E., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing For Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4); 1450-1460.
• Dünhaupt, P. (2017). Determinants of labour‟s income share in the era of financialisation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 41, 283–306.
• Epstein, G. (2005). Introduction: Financialization and the World Economy. In G. Epstein (Eds.), Financialization and the World Economy (pp.3-16). Cheltenham and Northampton: Edwar Elgar.
• Epstein, G. (2013). Developmental Central Banking: Winning The Future By Updating A Page From The Past. Review of Keynesian Economics, 1(3), 273-287.
• Eşiyok, A. B. (2016). Keynesyen “Altın Çağ” dan Neoliberal “Orta Çağ” a: Geriye Ne Kaldı?. İktisat ve Toplum Dergisi, Aralık, Sayı 74, 60-65.
• Flaherty, E. (2015). Top Income Under Finance-Driven Capitalism, 1990-2010: Power Resources and Regulatory Orders. Socio-Economic Review, Vol:13, No:3, 417-447.
• Foster, J. B. (2011). Tekelci Finans Sermayesi (B. Baysal, O. Gayretli ve S. Serezli, Çev.). İstanbul: Kalkedon Yayınları, 1. Baskı.
• Foster, J. B., & Magdoff, F. (2008). Financial Implosion and Stagnation Back to the Real Economy. Monthly Review, Vol.60, Issue 7, December, 1-29.
• Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, March, no.1
• Froud, J., Haslam, C., Johal, S., & William, K. (2000). Shareholder value and financialization: consultancy promises, management moves. Economy and Society, vol. 29, no. 1, 80–110.
• Gillan, Stuart L. (2006). Recent Developments in Corporate Governance: An Overview. Journal of Corporate Finance. 12, 381 – 402.
• Gonzalez, I., & Sala, H. (2014). Investment Crowdıng-Out and Labor Market Effects of Financialization in The US. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 61, No. 5, 589-613.
• Harvey, D. (2010). Postmodernliğin Durumu (S. Savran, Çev.). İstanbul: Metis Yayınları.
• Hein, E. (2015). Finance-dominated capitalism and re-distribution of income: a Kaleckian perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics. 39, 907–934.
• Hein, E., & Schoder, C. (2011). Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation: a post- Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany. International Review of Applied Economics, 25 (6), 693–723.
• Karaçimen, E. (2015). Borç Kıskacında Emek. İstanbul: Sav Yayınları.
• Khemraj, T., Madrick, J., & Semmler, W. (2006). Okun’s Law and Jobless Growth. Schwartz Center For Policy Analysis, The New School Policy Note, No:3; 1-10. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54881/1/MPRA_ paper_54881.pdf. Erişim: 08.04.2018.
• Köhler, K., Guschanski, A., & Stockhammer, E. (2016). How does financialization affect functional income distribution? A theoretical clarification and empirical assessment. Socio-Economic Review, Vol. 00, 1-26.
• Krippner, G. (2005). The Financialization of the American Economy. Socio-Economic Review, 3 (2), 173-208.
• Lapavitsas, C. (2009a). Finansallaşmış Kapitalizm: Kriz ve Finansal Müsadere (T. Öncel, Çev.). C. Lapavitsas (Ed.), Finansallaşma ve Kapitalizmin Krizi içinde. İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
• Layard, R., Nickell, S., & Jackman, R. (2005). Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Oxford University Press. Lazonick, W., & O‟Sullivan, M. (2000). Maximizing shareholder value: a new ideology for corporate governance. Economy and Society, vol. 29, no. 1, 13–35.
• Lee, K.M., & Cheng, C. Y. (2011). Financialization, economic crises and social protection: the case of Hong Kong. Journal of Asian Public Policy, Vol. 4, No. 1, 18–41.
• Minsky, H.P. (1992). The financial instability hypothesis. Working Paper No. 74. New York: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp74.pdf. Erişim: 14.05.2018.
• Mishkin, F.S. (2011). Para, Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar İktisadı. (S. Şahin, S. Çiçek ve Ç. Boz, Çev.). İstanbul: Akademi Yayıncılık.
• Monfort, M., Ordóñez, J., & Sala, H. (2018). Inequality and Unemployment Patterns in Europe: Does Integration Lead to (Real) Convergence?. Open Economic Review. 1-22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-018-9488-x.
• OECD. (2015). In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All.
• OECD Publishing, Paris. Onaran, Ö., & Obst, T. (2016). Wage-Led Growth in the EU15 Member States: The Effects of Income Distribution on Growth, Investment, Trade Balance, and Inflation.
• Post Keynesian Economics Study Group Working Paper, no. 1602, https://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP1602.pdf. Erişim: 24.04.2018.
• Orhangazi, Ö. (2008a). Keynesgil Finansal Düzenlemelerden Finansallaşmaya: İktisat Literatürü ve ABD Ekonomisinin Finansallaşmasına Tarihsel Bir Bakış. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 35, 133-159.
• Orhangazi, Ö. (2008b). Financialisation and Capital Accumulation in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector, A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation on the US Economy: 1973-2003. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Üzar / Kapitalizmin Finansallaşma Sürecinde Önemli Bir Sorun Olarak İşsizlik: Tartışma ve Analiz 97 32, 863-886. Özatay F. (2015). Parasal İktisat Kuram ve Politika. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi, 4. Basım.
• Özgüler, V. C. (2014). Gelir Servet ve Yoksulluk. İstanbul: Ginius Yayınları.
• Palley T. I. (2012). From Financial Crisis to Stagnation – The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Palley, T. I. (2007a). Financialization: What It Is and Why It Matters. The Levy Economics Institute and Economics for Democratic and Open Societies, Working Paper No:525, 1-31. http://www.levyinstitute.org/ pubs/wp_525.pdf. Erişim: 04.03.2018.
• Palley, T. I. (2007b). Seeking Full Employment Again. Challenge, vol. 50, no. 6, November/December, 4–50.
• Palley, T. I. (2016). Inequality, the Financial Crisis and Stagnation: Competing Stories and Why They Matter. Real-World Economics Review, issue no. 74, 1-18.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Test for Cross Section Dependence in Panel. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240, 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22: 265-312.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time. Economica, vol. 34, no. 135, 254-81
• Aglietta, M., & Breton, R. (2001). Financial systems, corporate control and capital accumulation. Economy and Society, 30(1), 433–466.
• Phelps, E. S., & Zoega, G. (1998). Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment. The Economic Journal, 108 (May), 782-801.
• Rowthorn, R. (1995). Capital Formation and Unemployment. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.11, No.1, 26-39.
• Salim, R. A., & Rafiq, S. (2012). Why do some emerging economies proactively accelerate the adoption of renewable energy?. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1051-1057.
• Seo, H-J., Kim, H.S., & Kim, J. (2016). Does Shareholder Value Orientation or Financial Market Liberalization Slow Down Korean Real Investment?. Review of Radical Political Economics. 48 (4), s.633 – 660.
• Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern Macroeconomics Its Origins, Development and Current State. Edward Elgar.
• Stiglitz, J.E. (2016). Eşitsizliğin Bedeli: Bugünün Bölünmüş Toplumu Geleceğimizi Nasıl Tehlikeye Atıyor? (O. İşler, Çev.). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
• Stockhammer, E. (2004). Financialization and the slowdown of accumulation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 28, 719–41.
• Stockhammer, E. (2012). Financialization, income distribution and the crisis. Investigación económica, Vol 71, No. 279, 39-70.
• Stockhammer, E. (2015). Rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(3), 935-958.
• Stockhammer, E. (2017). Determinants of the Wage Share: A Panel Analysis of Advanced and Developing Economies. British Journal of Industrial Relations, 55:1, March, 3-33.
• Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, Vol.38, No:2, 311-323.
• Sweezy P., & Baran P. (2007). Tekelci Sermaye (U. S. Akalın, Çev.). İstanbul: Kalkedon Yayınevi.
• Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi. İstanbul : Beta Yayınları.
• Tridico, P. (2012). Financial Crisis and Global İmbalances: its Labour Market Origins and the Aftermath. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 36(1), 17-42.
• Tunalı, H., & Özdemir, O. (2017). Türkiye’de Finansallaşmanın Emek Payı Üzerindeki Etkisi Üstüne Bir Deneme. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, Cilt: 67, 2017/1, 57-116.
• Üzar, U. (2017). Finansallaşma Çağında Eşitsizliklerin Görünümü ve Devletin Rolü. Türkiye Bankalar Birliği Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 101, 103-131.
• Van Arnum, B. M., & Naples, M. I. (2013). Financialization and Income Inequality In The United States, 1967–2010. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 72(5), 1158-1182.
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, 69, 6 (2007), 709-748.