The Reliability of COVID-19 Data in the Shadow of Anti-Pandemic Measures’ Cancellation

Year 2022, Volume: 31 Issue: 1, 91 - 114, 15.04.2022

Evgeny Sedashov Dr. Mert Moral

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic necessitates taking measures that may be very costly from an economic standpoint and likely to make the mass public discontent. If an anti-pandemic regimen does not accomplish its goals, its costs become even harder to justify. We argue that, under such circumstances, cancellation of an anti-pandemic regimen would decrease the reliability of health data because rank-in-file policymakers and bureaucrats have incentives to present more optimistic statistics to signal their competence and politicians would further pressure them to report statistics that appear to agree with the cancellation of restrictions and give legitimacy to taking the measures. Our empirical analyses suggest that closeness to the restrictions’ cancellation date is associated with lower reliability of COVID-19 daily cumulative cases and deaths data. Being robust to several sensitivity and robustness checks, this finding is alarming from the perspective of representative democracy and for those who have to survive in these turbulent times.

Keywords

COVID-19 pandemic, Pandemic restrictions, Data manipulation, Populism, Comparative politics

Pandemi Önlemlerinin Kaldırılması Kararları Işığında Covid-19 Verilerinin Güvenilirliği Sorunu

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemisi, dünyanın dört bir yanındaki hükümetleri oldukça önemli ekonomik ve sosyal sonuçları olan tedbirler almaya itmiştir. Alınan bu oldukça sert tedbirlerin pandemiyle mücadele hususunda yetersiz kaldığı yahut başarısız olduğu durumlarda, bu tedbirler en başta ekonomik olmak üzere toplumun çeşitli kesimleri üzerindeki ağır maliyetleri kamuoyu nezdinde tepkiyle karşılanabilmektedir. Çalışmamızda bu gibi durumlarda, hükümetler ve ilgili uzmanların aldıkları tedbirlerin başarısını ölçmek için referans aldığımız hasta ve vefat istatistiklerinin güvenilirliğinin önemli ölçüde azaldığı öne sürülmektedir. Zira, alınan bu sert tedbirlerin başarısız olması durumunda, seçilmişler bunların meşruluğunu ve olumlu sonuçlarını gösterecek, daha iyimser istatistikler yayımlanmasını talep etme temayülünde olacak ve ilgili istatistiklerin hazırlanmasından sorumlu uzman ve bürokratlar üzerlerinde çeşitli baskılar kuracaklardır. Nitekim, betimsel ve ampirik tahliller tam kapanma uygulamasının sona ermesinin öncesinde toplam vefat ve hasta sayılarına dair istatistiklerin daha az güvenilir hala geldiğini göstermektedir. Çalışmamızın eklerinde yer verilen alternatif model, ölçüt ve analizler de bu sonuçları destekler niteliktedir. Bu açıdan, çalışmamızın sonuçları gerek temsili demokrasi gerekse de pandemi süresince hayatlarını bu istatistiklere göre idame ettirmeye çalışan vatandaşlar için oldukça kaygı vericidir.

Keywords

Covid-19, Pandemiyle mücadele önlemleri, Veri manipülasyonu, Popülizm, Karşılaştırmalı siyaset

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