Understanding the Climate-Conflict-Migration Nexus: Immigration from Climate-Conflict Zones to Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 31 Issue: 1, 137 - 155, 15.04.2022

Zahide Erdoğan Safure Cantürk

Abstract

Regardless of the level of development, all countries are affected by the negative consequences of climate change, and economic, environmental, and social consequences emerge accordingly. Climate change is now being considered as a development and security problem. The main reason for this is that climate-related extreme weather events cause disasters, and that climate change is a threat multiplier for conflicts as it increases the struggle for scarce natural resources. This paper attempts to explain migration to Turkey from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh based on climate-induced internal displacement data using the Foresight Model. The study focuses on whether it is possible to predict migration from these countries by using the Foresight Model based on the comparison of the limited data with the IDMC data. Immigration was examined in three countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, with the exception of India, which was compatible with disaster-induced internal displacement IDMC data, by comparing DGMM data on illegal migrants apprehended with YÖK data on international students. It is concluded that a minimalist approach is more appropriate to explain climate induced migration to Turkey, and the micro and meso factors should also be considered based on the Foresight Model. IDMC, DGMM and YÖK data are compatible with each other, and there is a need for comprehensive data, including these data in climate-induced migration forecasts.

Keywords

Climate change, Migration and conflict, South Asia, Vulnerability, Security

İklim-Çatışma-Göç Bağını Anlamak: İklim-Çatışma Bölgelerinden Türkiye’ye Göç

Abstract

Gelişmişlik düzeyinden bağımsız olarak tüm ülkeler iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz sonuçlarından etkilenmektedir ve bu doğrultuda ekonomik, çevresel ve toplumsal sonuçlar ortaya çıkmaktadır. İklim değişikliği artık bir kalkınma ve güvenlik sorunu olarak ele alınmaya başlanmıştır. Bunun temel sebebi iklim ile ilişkili aşırı hava olaylarının afetlere yol açması yanında, iklim değişikliğinin kıt doğal kaynaklar için mücadeleyi arttırmasıyla çatışmalar için bir tehdit çarpanı konumunda olmasıdır. Bu makale Afganistan, Pakistan ve Bangladeş’ten Türkiye’ye göçü iklim kaynaklı yerinden edilme verilerine dayanarak Foresight Modelini kullanarak açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Foresight Modelini kullanarak mevcut sınırlı veri ile IDMC verisinin karşılaştırılmasına dayanarak bu ülkelerden göçün tahmin edilmesinin mümkün olup olmadığına odaklanmaktadır. Afganistan, Pakistan ve Bangladeş olmak üzere Hindistan hariç söz konusu üç ülkeden göç, IDMC ülke içinde yerinden edilmelere ilişkin verisinin Göç İdaresi’nin yakalanan düzensiz göçmen verisi ve YÖK uluslararası öğrenci verisi ile uyumludur. Minimalist yaklaşımın Türkiye’ye iklim kaynaklı göçü açıklama da daha uygun olduğu ve Foresight Modelindeki mikro ve mezo faktörlerin de dikkate alınması gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. IDMC, Göç İdaresi ve YÖK verisi birbiri ile uyumlu olup, iklim kaynaklı göçü tahmin etmek için bu veriler dahil kapsamlı verilere ihtiyaç bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

İklim değişikliği, Göç ve çatışma, Savunmasızlık, Güney Asya, Güvenlik

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