Investigating the Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy on Climate Change: Evidence from Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 314 - 335, 29.07.2025

Elif Duygu Kömürcüoğlu

https://doi.org/10.54733/smar.1701472

Abstract

The effects of global climate change on the economy have made environmental sustainability an essential element of macroeconomic policy frameworks. In recent years, while the position of central banks in combating climate change has been discussed, the consequences of monetary policy implementations in terms of climate change have become increasingly prominent in the literature. The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of monetary policy implementations on climate change in Türkiye. In the study spanning the period 1990-2023, short- and long-run effects are investigated by means of ARDL bounds test and causality relationships between variables are analysed by Toda-Yamamoto test. The findings reveal that monetary expansion triggers climate change in Türkiye. Moreover, causality analyses suggest that there is a bidirectional relationship between the variables. In accordance with these results, it is of utmost importance to design policies by prioritising the effects of monetary policy on environmental sustainability. The central bank may incorporate climate-friendly green monetary policy instruments into its strategies while pursuing its main objective of price stability.

Keywords

climate change , monetary policy , green monetary policy , ARDL

Para Politikasının İklim Değişikliği Üzerindeki Uzun Dönem Etkilerinin Araştırılması: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Abstract

Küresel iklim değişikliğinin ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri, çevresel sürdürülebilirliği makroekonomik politika çerçevelerinin önemli bir unsuru haline getirmiştir. Son yıllarda, iklim değişikliğiyle mücadelede merkez bankalarının konumu tartışılırken, para politikası uygulamalarının iklim değişikliği açısından sonuçları da literatürde giderek daha fazla öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, para politikası uygulamalarının iklim değişikliği üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye özelinde analiz etmektir. 1990-2023 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, kısa ve uzun dönemli etkiler ARDL sınır testi aracılığıyla araştırılmış, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri ise Toda-Yamamoto testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de parasal genişlemenin iklim değişikliğini tetiklediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, nedensellik analizleri değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgular doğrultusunda, para politikasının çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerindeki etkileri dikkate alınarak politika tasarımının yapılması büyük önem taşımaktadır. Merkez bankası, temel hedefi olan fiyat istikrarını gözetirken, iklim dostu yeşil para politikası araçlarını stratejilerine dahil edebilir.

Keywords

iklim değişikliği , para politikası , yeşil para politikası , ARDL

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