Rusya’nın Büyük Güç Siyasetinde Test Alanı Olarak Libya

Year 2020, Volume: 21 Issue: 47, 96 - 130, 31.12.2020

Guner Özkan , Elif Şimşek

Abstract

Bu çalışma Rusya’nın büyük güç olup olmadığını devletin Libya krizindeki siyaseti üzerinde incelemeyi hedeflemiştir. Klasik Realizmi ve Neo-realizmi benimseyen çalışmaların analiz hususunda devlet ya da yapı düzeylerinden birisini kullanmalarına bağlı sınırlarından özgürleştirebilmek amacıyla bu çalışmada, Rusya’nın büyük güç olup olmadığı Neo-klasik Realist çerçeveye içkin olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada Realizm kökenli kuramların bir büyük güçte olması gereken unsurlara dair çözümleme setlerinin saptanarak, Rusya’nın Libya siyasetinin ve buradaki de facto varlığının, bu setlerin işaret ettiği kavramsal çerçeveye içkin olarak anlamlandırılması ve açıklanması hedeflenmektedir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışma, Rusya’nın NATO müdahalesi sonrasındaki Libya siyasetinin, devletin düşünsel ve maddi kaynaklarıyla beslenen büyük güç anlayışıyla şekillendiğini savunmakta ve büyük güç anlayışının en temel itici güç olduğunu iddia etmektedir. İçerik analizine dayanan nitel araştırma yöntemine sadık kalan bu çalışma, Rusya’nın Libya’da ve bu ülkeye yönelik uluslararası düzeyde izlemiş olduğu siyasetin büyük ölçüde kendi büyük güç statüsünü korumak ve daha da öteye taşımak amacını taşıdığı bulgusuna ulaşmış, bunu da en etkin şekilde Neo-klasik Realist teorik yaklaşımın öngörülerinin açıkladığı sonucuna varmıştır.

Keywords

Rusya, Büyük Güç, Libya, Orta Doğu, Neo-klasik Realizm

Supporting Institution

kendim

Thanks

Tesekür ederim..

Libya as a Testing Ground in the Great Power Politics of Russia

Abstract

The objective of this article is to investigate whether Russia is really a great power in the context of the policies that it has pursued in the crisis in Libya. In order to avoid the limitations of the Classical Realism and Neo-realism prioritising state or international system in their level of analyses, the study examines the question of if Russian great power status is relevant within the framework of the presumptions falling into the Neo-classical Realist thinking in international politics. Having defined the necessary elements determining the great power status of states in the sets of the realist theoretical analyses, the work intends to explain the extent to which Russia’s policies and de facto presence in Libya are part of those conceptual settings. In line with these objectives, the article argues that Russia’s policy in Libya, after the interference of NATO to the country, has been largely shaped by the acceptance of being a great power, as being the main driving force, fed by the ideational and material sources of the Russian state. Having used the method of qualitative content analysis, the article has proved that the policies of Russia in Libya and towards the same country in international level are to a large extent related to maintain and further expand the Russian great power status and could be best explained by the assumptions that the Neo-classical Realist theory contains in international politics.

Keywords

Russia, Great Power, Libya, Middle East, Neo-classical Realism

References

• AFRICOM (2020). New evidence of Russian aircraft active in Libyan airspace. 18.06.2020. https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/32941/new-evidence-of-russian-aircraft-active-in-li (Erişim tarihi: 21.07.2020).
• Akhiyadov, M. (2020). Russia’s Strategy in Libya. 08.07.2020, https://insamer.com/en/russias-strategy-in-libya_3078.html (Erişim tarihi: 21.07.2020).
• Aljazeera (2019). Libya: Flight data places mysterious planes in Haftar territory. 28.05.2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/libya-flight-data-places-mysterious-planes-haftar-territory-190527205819893.html (Erişim tarihi: 21.07.2020).
• Aljazeera (2020). Russia flew 14 MiG 29s and Su-24s to Libya: US army. 28.05.2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/russia-flew-14-mig-29s-su-24s-libya-army-200527200442656.html (Erişim tarihi: 21.07.2020).
• Allinson, T. (2020). Türkiye Libya'da güç dengelerini değiştirdi. 08.05.2020. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/tr/t%C3%BCrkiye-libyada-g%C3%BC%C3%A7-dengelerini-de%C4%9Fi%C5%9Ftirdi/a-53372855 (Erişim tarihi: 06.10.2020).
• Badanin, R. & Churakova, O. (2019). The investigation of that as Russia is involved in the civil war in Libya. 12.09.2019. https://www.proekt.media/investigation/prigozhin-libya/ (Erişim tarihi: 15.08.2020).
• Baldwin, D. (2013). Power and International Relations. Handbook of International Relations, 2nd edition. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
• Balzan,J. (2017). Europe courts Libyan strongman as Russia closes in. Maltatoday. 09.02.2017. https://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/world/74246/europe_courts_libyan_strongman_as_russia_closes_in#.X5rie4gzZEa (Erişim tarihi: 23.11.2019).
• Bibbo, B. (2017). What is Russia’s endgame in Libya? 22.01.2017. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/1/22/what-is-russias-endgame-in-libya (Erişim tarihi: 04.11.2020).
• Canlı, E. (2019). Libya'da UMH güçleri kritik Giryan kentini ele geçirdi. 26.06.2019. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/libyada-umh-gucleri-kritik-giryan-kentini-ele-gecirdi-/1516709#:~:text=Canl%C4%B1%20%7C%2026.06.2019-,Trablus,Giryan%20kentini%20ele%20ge%C3%A7irdiklerini%20a%C3%A7%C4%B1klad%C4%B1. (Erişim tarihi: 04.11.2020).
• Chubakha, I. (2011). How much Russia will lose in Libya. 06.09.2011. https://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2011/09/06/886817.html (Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2020).
• Deutsche Welle (2020a). Berlin: Libya peace summit agrees on commitment to UN arms embargo. 19.01.2020. https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-libya-peace-summit-agrees-on-commitment-to-un-arms-embargo/a-52058307 (Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2020).
• Deutsche Welle (2020b). Kremlin denies 'insinuations' on Russian mercenaries detained in Belarus. 30.07.2020. https://www.dw.com/en/kremlin-denies-insinuations-on-russian-mercenaries-detained-in-belarus/a-54380995 (Erişim tarihi: 13.09.2020).
• Deutsche Welle (2020c). Berlin Libya conference: A first step toward peace? 19.01.2020. https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-libya-conference-a-first-step-toward-peace/a-52051027 (Erişim tarihi: 06.11.2020)
• Dugin, A. (2009). Çetvyortaya Politiçeskaya Teoriya:Rossiya i Politiçeskiye İden XXI Veka. http://www.4pt.su/ru/content/chetvyortaya-politicheskaya-teoriya (Erişim tarihi: 22.04.2017).
• Enerdata (2020a). Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020. Cude Oil. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statitistics.html (Erişim tarihi: 15.09.2020).
• Enerdata (2020b). Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2020. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/coal-lignite/coal-production-data.html (Erişim tarihi: 15.09.2020).
• France 24 (2020). HRW calls on Libya's Haftar to probe alleged war crimes by his men. 16.06.2020. https://www.france24.com/en/20200616-hrw-calls-on-libya-s-haftar-to-probe-alleged-war-crimes-by-his-men (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Fueter, E. (1922). World History, 1815–1930. United States: Harcourt, Brace and Company.
• Gartenstein-Ross, D. & Barr, B. (2015). Dignity and Dawn: Libya’s Escalating Civil War. ICCT Research Paper. The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT). February 2015. https://www.icct.nl/download/file/ICCT-Gartenstein-Ross-Barr-Dignity-and-Dawn-Libyas-Escalating-Civil-War-February2015.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• Gazete Duvar (2020). Moskova’daki Libya Zirvesi Bitti. 13.01.2020. https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/dunya/2020/01/13/libyada-kalici-ateskes-icin-moskova-zirvesi-basladi (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Hays, J. (2008). Word War II and The Soviet Union. May 2016. http://factsanddetails.com/russia/History/sub9_1e/entry-4971.html (Erişim tarihi: 29.06.2017).
• Headley, J. (2008). Russia and the Balkans Foreign Policy from Yeltsin to Putin. New York: Colombia University Press.
• Hedenskog, J. (et.al. 2005). Russia as a Great Power: Dimensions of Security under Putin. London: Routledge.
• Hille, K., Saleh, H. & Politi, J. (2017). Libyan PM visits Moscow as Russian Mideast ambitions grow. 02.03.2017. https://www.ft.com/content/2b9b91e8-fe9b-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30 (Erişim tarihi: 03.05.2020).
• Hopf, T. (2002). Social Construction of International Politics: Identities and Foreign Policies. Moscow, 1955 and 1999. New York: Cornell University Press.
• Human Rights Watch (2020). Libya: Apparent War Crimes in Tripoli. 16.06.2020. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/06/16/libya-apparent-war-crimes-tripoli (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Hürriyet (2008). Gaddafi visits Moscow for energy, military talks. 31.10.2008. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/gaddafi-visits-moscow-for-energy-military-talks-10254668 (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Kahraman, F.A. (2020). Son dakika haberi: Berlin Konferansı'nda dikkat çeken Hafter ve Sarrac detayı. 20.01.2020. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/galeri-son-dakika-haberi-berlin-konferansi-turkiyenin-kilit-rolunu-ortaya-cikardi-41423774/1 (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Kanet, R.E. & Kozhemiakin, A.V. (1997). The Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. London: Macmillan Press.
• Kekili, E. (2020). BERLİN Kongresi ve Libya Krizinin Geleceği. SETA.
• Kitchen, N. (2012). Ideas of Power and the Power of Ideas. İçinde Asle Toje ve Barbara Kunz (der.). Neoclassical Realism in European Politics: Bringing Power Back. Manchester: University Press Manchester: 78-95.
• Kozhanov, N. (2017). Moscow’s Presence in Libya Is a New Challenge for the West. 30.05.2017. https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/moscow-s-presence-libya-new-challenge-west (Erişim tarihi: 03.05.2020).
• Laquaer, W. (1969). The Struggle for the Middle East: The Soviet Union in the Mediterrianen (1958-1968). Washington, D.C.: The Macmillan Company.
• Levy, J. S. (1983). War in the Modern Great Power System, Kentucky: The University Press of Kentucky.
• Mankoff, J. (2009), Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics. New York: Rowman & Littlefield.
• Mardasov, A. & Semenov, K. (2019). Return to Libya with or without Haftar. 20.12.2019. https://www.ridl.io/ru/vernutsja-v-liviju-s-haftarom-ili-bez/ (Erişim tarihi: 07.01.2020).
• Medvedev, S. (1999). Power Space and Russian Foreign Policy. Ted Hopf (der.). Understandings of Russian Foreign Policy. Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvanian State University Press. 15-55.
• Mepanews (2020). Hafile Hafter’in Libya Ulusal Ordusu Kimlerden Oluşuyor? 26.06.2020. https://www.mepanews.com/halife-hafterin-libya-ulusal-ordusu-kimlerden-olusuyor-26057h.htm (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Nemtsova, A. (2020). Russia Looks to Africa to Extend Its Military Might. 08.08.2020. https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-looks-to-africa-to-extend-his-military-might?ref=scroll (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• Neumann, I.B. & Welsh, M.J. (1991). The Other in European Self-definition: An Addendum to The Literature on International Society. Review of International Studies, 17 (4): 327-348.
• Neumann, I.B. (1998). Russia as Europe’s Other. Journal of Area Studies: Special Issue. Borders and Boundaries, 6 (12): 26-73.
• Neumann, I.B. (2008). Russia as a Great Power: 1815-2007. Journal of International Relations and Development, 11 (2): 128-151.
• Ömer el-Kihya, M. (2011). Libya’nın Kaddafi’si. İstanbul: Kaknüs Yayınları.
• Özkan, G. (2019). Arap Baharı ve Sonrasında Ortadoğu’ya Yönelik Rusya’nın Dış Politikası, Arap Baharı Sonrası Ortadoğu; Kuram ve Siyaset, Orhan Battır ve Cüneyt Özşahin (der.), Ankara: Nobel. 207-242).
• Parfitt, T. (2008). Gaddafi offers Russia a naval base in Libya. The Guardian. 01.11.2008. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/01/libya-russia-gadafy-united-states (Erişim tarihi: 17.08.2019).
• Poletti, A. (2020). Libya: Italy refuses to choose between Tripoli and Haftar. The Africa Report. 11.08.2020. https://www.theafricareport.com/37172/libya-italy-refuses-to-choose-between-tripoli-and-haftar/ (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Ramani, R. (2020a). Russia’s Strategy in Libya. 07.04.2020. https://rusi.org/commentary/russias-strategy-libya (Erişim tarihi: 06.08.2020).
• Ramani, S. (2019). Is Russia warming up to the Houthis?. 16.01.2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/01/russia-yemen-houthis-mediation.html (Erişim tarihi: 06.08.2020).
• Ramani, S. (2020b). Putin, Mohamed bin Zayed seek to reclaim common ground on Libya. 15.07.2020. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/07/russia-uae-libya-policy-hifter-egypt.html (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Russia Today (2011). NATO interference in Libya caused more casualties – Lavrov. 06.10.2011. https://www.rt.com/russia/lavrov-nato-libya-victims-201/ (Erişim tarihi: 06.08.2020).
• Rutskoy, A. (1992). Komsomolskaya Pravda. 17.01.1992. İçinde Iver B. Neumann. Russia as a Great Power: 1815-2007. Journal of International Relations and Development, 11 (2): 128-151.
• S/RES/1973 (2011). https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/s/res/1973-%282011%29 (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• S/RES/748(1992). https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/196976 (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• SC/14243 [8 JULY 2020]). United Nations Press Release. Security Council. As Foreign Interference in Libya Reaches Unprecedented Levels, Secretary-General Warns Security Council ‘Time Is Not on Our Side’, Urges End to Stalemate. https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14243.doc.htm (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Semenov, K. (2020a). What to expect from entente between Moscow, Ankara in Libya. 05.06.2020. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/moscow-ankara-russia-turkey-libya-war-hifter-africom.html (Erişim tarihi: 06.08.2020).
• Semenov, K. (2020b). Russia’s Game on the Libyan Field: From Gaddafi to Haftar. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). 12.08.2020. https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/russia-s-game-on-the-libyan-field-from-gaddafi-to-haftar/ (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• SIPRI (2020), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Nuclear Weapon Modernization Continues but the Outlook for Arms Control is Bleak. 14.06.2020. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/nuclear-weapon-modernization-continues-outlook-arms-control-bleak-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now (Erişim tarihi: 08.09.2020).
• Souleimanov, E. A. (Summer 2019). Russia's Policy in the Libyan Civil War: A Cautious Engagement. Volume XXVI. Number 2. https://mepc.org/journal/russias-policy-libyan-civil-war-cautious-engagement (Erişim tarihi: 06.08.2020).
• Stephen, C. (2016). Chief of Libya's new UN-backed government arrives in Tripoli. The Guardian. 30.03.2016. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/30/chief-libyas-un-backed-government-fayez-sarraj-arrives-tripoli (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• Suchkov, M. A. (2019). Russia’s 'multilayered pie’ policy on Libya. 09.12.2019. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/12/russia-libya-mercenaries-mfa.html (Erişim tarihi: 01.09.2020).
• Şimşek-Özkan, E. (2015), Kimlik ve Dış Politika: Rusya Federasyonu’nun Bosna Hersek ve Kosova siyasetinde Kimliğin Rolü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara.
• Şimşek-Özkan, E. (2017). Türkiye-Rusya İlişkileri. İçinde Sertif Demir, Poyraz Gürson ve Ayça Eminoğlu (der.). Türk Dış Politikası: Aktörler, Krizler, Tercihler, Çözümler. Ankara: Barış Kitap: 282-331.
• Taliaferro, J.W. & Lobell, S.E. & Ripsman, N.M. (2009). Introduction: Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy. İçinde Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, Jeffrey W. Taliaferro (der.). Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• TASS (2017). Russia interested in restoring full-fledged relations with Libya- Lavrov. 02.03.2017. https://tass.com/politics/933723 (Erişim tarihi: 12.09.2019).
• Taylor, A. J.P. (1954). The Struggle for Mastery in Europe 1848–1918. Oxford: Clarendon.
• Tellal, E. (2010). Zümrüdüanka: Rusya Federasyonu’nun Dış Politikası. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt: 65, Sayı: 3: 189-236.
• Thorun, C. (2009). Explaining Change in Russian Foreign Policy: The Role of Ideas in Post-Soviet Russia’s Conduct Towards the West. New York: Palgrave, Macmillan.
• Trenin, D. (July 2018). What drives Russia’s Policy in the Middle East? İçinde Nicu Popescu ve Stanislav Secrieru (der.). Russia’s Return to the Middle East: Building Sandcastles?. Chaillot Papers, No: 146. Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies. 21-27. https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/russia%E2%80%99s-return-middle-east-building-sandcastles (Erişim tarihi: 19.01.2019).
• Tsygankov, A.P. & Tarver-Wahlquis, M. (2009). Dueling Honors: Power, Identity and the Russia-Georgia Divide. Foreign Policy Analysis, 5 (4): 307-326.
• Tsygankov, A.P. (2006). Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change Continuity in National Identity. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield.
• UNHRO (2020). United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. Libya: Violations related to mercenary activities must be investigated – UN experts. 17.06.2020. https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25970&LangID=E(Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Varlı, İ. (2020). Kahire Bildirgesi’ni Ankara mı reddetti? Birgün. 06.09.2020. https://www.birgun.net/haber/kahire-bildirgesi-ni-ankara-mi-reddetti-303829 (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. London: Addison-Wesley.
• Waltz, K. N. (1993). The Emerging Structure of International Politics. International Security. 18 (2): 50.
• Warsaw Institute (2019), Civil War in Libya Russian Goals and Policy. 30.04.2019. https://warsawinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Civil-War-in-Libia-Russian-Goals-and-Policy-Special-Report-Warsaw-Institute.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• Weiss, M. & Vaux, P. (2019). Russia’s Wagner Mercenaries Have Moved into Libya. Good Luck with That. 28.09.2019. https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-wagner-mercenaries-have-moved-into-libya-good-luck-with-that?ref=scroll (Erişim tarihi: 07.09.2020).
• Workman, D. (2020). Russia’s Top 10 Exports. 15.09.2020. http://www.worldstopexports.com/russias-top-10-exports/ (Erişim tarihi: 20.10.2020).
• World Bank (2019). Gross Domestic Product 1991-2018. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 21.10.2020).
• World Bank (2020) Databank: List of Economies, https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 05.11.2020).
• Yazbeck, D.G. & Kuznetsov, V. (July 2018). The ‘Comrades’ in North Africa. İçinde Nicu Popescu ve Stanislav Secrieru (der.). Russia’s Return to the Middle East: Building Sandcastles?. Chaillot Papers, No: 146. Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies. 73-81. https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/russia%E2%80%99s-return-middle-east-building-sandcastles (Erişim tarihi: 19.01.2019).
• Yeltsin, B. (2001), Geceyarısı Günlükleri. Ahmet Fethi (çev.). İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
• Zickel, R.E. (1989). The Soviet Union-A Country Study. Washington D. C: Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress. https://www.shsu.edu/~his_ncp/Soviet2.html. (Erişim tarihi: 29.06.2017).