Impact of climate change on olive suitability areas

Abstract

The impact of climate change is being felt more and more by everyone. This effect is particularly observed in crop production in agricultural areas. The region where olive cultivation is most widespread and where the effects of climate change are felt the most is the Mediterranean region. Olive cultivation in Türkiye is mostly carried out in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions. This study aims to determine the changes in olive suitability areas according to climate change projections. Three different global climate models (HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M and CSIRO) were used in the study. The average of each dataset was calculated according to bioclimatic parameters. WorldClim data was used as reference climate data. The studies were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projection data. Data for three different periods-the reference period, the years of 2050s and 2080s- were used. Maxent and BioClim species distribution models were used to produce suitability maps for olive. In the BioClim Model, in the RCP 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2080, RCP 8.5 2080 and RCP 8.5 2050 periods, there was a decrease of 8%, 18.6%, 20% and 23.4% in very suitable areas compared to the reference period, respectively. In the Maxent model, there was a decrease of 59.3%, 40.6%, 69.7% and 5.8% in very suitable areas in RCP 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2080, RCP 8.5 2080 and RCP 8.5 2050, respectively, compared to the reference period. The mean AUC value for olive was 0.874 with a standard deviation of 0.002. The AUC test value obtained shows that the model is sensitive and descriptive for olives.

Keywords

• Olive
• Climate Change
• Crop Suitability

References

1. Adams, R.M., Hurd, B.H., Lenhart, S., & Leary, N. (1998). Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Clımate Research, Vol. 11: 19–30. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr011019 Anonymous, (2024). https://www.worldclim.org/data/bioclim.html
2. Aşık, Ş., Kaya, Ü., Çamoğlu, G., Köseoğlu, O., Ataol Ölmez, H., Akkuzu, E., Şahin., M., Öztürk Güngör, F., Avcı, M. & Nergiz, C. (2011). Zeytin yetiştiriciliğinde farklı sulama programlarının zeytin verimi, sofralık zeytin ve zeytinyağı kalitesi üzerine etkisi. TUBİTAK Proje No: 108O135. https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1018517
3. Ayaz, M. &Varol, N. (2015). The Effect of Climatic Parameters Changing (Heat, raining, snow, relative humidity, fog, hail, and wind) on Olive Growing. Zeytin Bilimi 5 (1), 33-40
4. Aygün, İ., Urkan, E., Alayunt, F.N., Yalçın, H. & Tekin, A.B. (2019). İzmir ilinde zeytin hasadında kullanılan yerli ve ithal çırpıcı tip makinaların hasat performanslarının değerlendirilmesi. Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(2): 265-271.
5. Ayerza, R. & Sibbett, G.S.(2001). Thermal adaptability of olive (Olea europaea L.) to the Arid Chaco of Argentina. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ, 84, 277–285 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00260-7
6. Baldwin, R. A., (2009). Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research. Entropy, 11: 854-866. https://doi.org/10.3390/e11040854
7. Collins, W.J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Hinton, T., Jones, C. D., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Totterdell, I., Woodward, S., Reichler, T., & Kim, J. (2008). Evaluation of the Hadgem2 Model. Met Office Hadley Centre Technical Note No. Hctn 74.
8. Dunne J.P., John J.G., Adcroft A.J., Griffies S.M., Hallberg R. W., Shevliakova E., Stouffer R. J, Cooke W., Dunne5 K.A, Harrison M. J., Krasting J.P., Malyshev S. L., Milly P. C. D., Phillipps P. J., Sentman L. T., Samuels B. L., Spelman M. J., Winton M., Wittenberg A. T., & Niki Z. (2012). GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics, Journal Of Climate, Vol: 25, Issue 19, Page(s): 6646- 6665. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1

9. Fraga, H., Moriondo, M., Leolini, L. & Santos, J.A. (2021) Mediterranean Olive Orchards under Climate Change: A Review of Future Impacts and Adaptation Strategies. Agronomy, 11, 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11010056
10. Giorgi F. (2006). Climate change Hot-spots Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, p. L08707 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025734
11. Gómez, J.A., Giráldez, J.V. & Fereres, E. (2001). Rainfall interception by olive trees in relation to leaf area. Agriculture Water Management, 49, 65–76.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3774(00)00116-5
12. Guisan, A., & Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: Offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8(9), 993–1009. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792
13. Hijmans R., Guarino L., & Mathur P., (2012). Diva-gis manual 7.5 1995-1998, Lizard Tech, Inc. The University of California. U.S. Patent No. 5, 710, 835. https://doi.org/10.1038/step26102
14. Özaltaş, M., Savran, M.K., Ulaş, M., Kaptan, S., Köktürk, H., Kalanlar, Ş., Konsoloğlu, B., Tibet, Ü., Yağcıoğlu, M., Aksarı, E., Tatlı, A., Soyuer, H., Pekcan, T., Dursun, Ö., Karadeniz, C., Kilci, M., Balkan, A. & Sevilmiş, G. (2016). Türkiye zeytincilik sektör raporu, ISBN: 978-605-9175-57-9, İzmir.
15. Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., Boscolo, R., Alpert, P., Artale, V., Li, L., & Xoplaki, E. (2006). The Mediterranean climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues. Developments in earth and environmental sciences, 4, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1571-9197(06)80003-0
16. Lionello, P., Abrantes, F., & Gacic, M. et al. (2014). The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts. Reg Environ Change, 14, 1679–1684. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0666-0
17. Miller J. (2010). Species Distribution Modeling. Geography Compass. Volume4, Issue6, Pages 490-509, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-8198.2010.00351.x
18. Moriondo, M., Trombi, G., Ferrise, R., Brandani, G., Dibari, C., Ammann, C.M., Lippi, M.M. & Bindi, M. (2013). Olive Trees as Bio-Indicators of Climate Evolution in the Mediterranean Basin. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22, 818–833. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12061
19. Nix, H. A. (1986). A biogeographic analysis of Australian elapid snakes. Atlas of elapid snakes of Australia, 7, 4-15.
20. Palliotti, A. & Bongi, G. (1996). Freezing Injury in the Olive Leaf and Effects of Mefluidide Treatment. J. Hortic. Sci., 71, 57–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.1996.11515382
21. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R. P., & Schapire, R. E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259. https://doi.org//10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
22. Phillips, S. J., & Elith, J. (2010). POC plots: calibrating species distribution models with presence‐only data. Ecology, 91(8), 2476-2484. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0760 Phillips S.J., (2017). A brief tutorial on MaxEnt.
23. Planton, S., Lionello, P., Artale, V., Aznar, R., Carrillo, A., Colin, J., Conged,i L., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Gualdi, S., Hertig, E., Jacobeit, J., Jordà, G., Li, L., Mariotti, A., Piani, C., Ruti, P., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Sannino, G., Sevault, F., Somot, S., & Tsimplis, M. (2012). The climate of the Mediterranean region in future climate. Elsevier (NETHERLANDS), projections, Amsterdam, pp 449–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00008-2
24. Ponti, L., Gutierrez, A.P., Ruti, P.M., & Dell’Aquila, A.( 2014). Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014, 111, 5598–5603. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314437111
25. Sevim, D., Varol, N., & Köseoğlu, O. (2022). Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Zeytin Yetiştiriciliği ve Zeytinyağı Üzerine Etkileri. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Bursa Uludag University. 36(2), p. 415-432. https://doi.org/10.20479/bursauludagziraat.1018517
26. Türkeş, M., (2008a). İklim Değişikliğiyle Savaşım, Kyoto Protokolü ve Türkiye, Mülkiyeliler Dergisi, cilt 32, sayı 259, s.101-131.
27. Ulbrich, U., May, W., Li, L., Lionello, P., Pinto, J. G., & Somot, S. (2006). The Mediterranean climate change under global warming. In Developments in earth and environmental sciences (Vol. 4, pp. 399-415). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1571-9197(06)80011-X
28. Varol, N, & Ayaz, M. (2012). Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Zeytincilik. Türk Bilimsel Derlemeler Dergisi 5(1):11-13.
29. Wang, Y., Xie, B., Wan, F., Xiao, Q., & Dai, L. (2007). Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species potential distribution models. Biodivers. Sci., 15(4):365-372 https://doi.org/10.1360/biodiv.060280
30. Wayne, G. P. (2013). The Beginner's Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways. https://skepticalscience.com/docs/RCP_Guide.pdf
31. Whetton, P., Marie, E., & Chris, G. (2015). CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2015, Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 222 pages. http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/